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Winning in Afghanistan
Details the establishment of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Examines future prospects of this force by analyzing its strengths and weaknesses, and views these within a broader context of the civil, military, and economic conflict that affects both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Afghan National Security Forces
Includes bibliographical references (p. ).
Withdrawal from Iraq
Iraq and the US face a critical transition during the period through 2011 and beyond. There is still a war to finish, but this is only part of the challenge both countries face. No one can be certain whether Iraq can achieve a stable level of political accommodation to deal with its internal problems. Iran seeks to expand it's influence, and Turkey will not tolerate a sanctuary for hostile Kurdish movements like the PKK. Arab support for Iraq remains weak, and Iraq's Arab neighbors fear both Shi'ite dominance and what that could mean in terms of Iran's role in Syria and Lebanon as well as Iraq. Even if it moves forward towards stability and political accommodation and largely ends the insurg...
Iraq and the United States
If Iraq and the United States are to win the war in any meaningful and lasting sense, they must translate the Strategic Agreement they signed in November 2008 into a lasting and functional strategic partnership. In the process, the United States must put Iraq firmly in the lead, but sustain the kind of aid and advice that will help Iraq make further progress in political accommodation, the quality of governance, economic development, and security. The CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy conducted a detailed analysis of the current situation in Iraq, the challenges Iraq faces, and the actions the United States needs to take to help Iraq meet those challenges. Its report provides a detailed risk asse...
Afghan National Security Forces
This study examines some of the issues affecting the expansion of Afghan forces, including the need for major changes in the way NATO/ISAF trains, mentors, and partners Afghan forces. It raises serious issues about the impact of excessive corruption and Afghan power brokers in the ANSF, particularly the Afghan National Police, and its highlights acute resource problems and issues in force quality. Its key recommendations, however, focus on the expansion of two key elements of the ANSF: The Afghan National Army and the Afghan National Police.
Iraq
It is far too early to say that Iraq can achieve lasting security and stability, maintain a pluralistic form of government, or avoid becoming caught up in another violent round of internal or regional power struggles. Iraq's success will depend largely on Iraq's leaders and their decisions. Iraq is now a fully sovereign state that is rapidly assuming responsibility for every aspect of its policy and security. The United States can, however, play a constructive role in helping Iraq as it reduces its aid programs and withdraws its forces. The U.S.-Iraqi Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA) provides a potential framework to build upon that can serve both nations' strategic interests. It also pro...
Iraq's Coming National Challenges
While it is tempting to focus on Iraq's very real political divisions -- and its ongoing, low-level insurgency -- it is equally important for both Iraqis and the US to realize that they must take immediate steps to focus on the full range of issues that will define Iraq's future. Iraq's politics will continue to present a serious risk of instability for at least the next decade, and violent terrorist groups and other factions will remain a major problem through at least 2015. Key risks like the divisions between Sunni and Shi'ite, and Arab and Kurd, remain critical issues. So do the many tensions and rivalries between leaders and factions, and the ongoing challenge from violent Sunni and Shi'ite extremists. At the same time, political and internal security challenges are only part of the story. Iraq faces a wide range of additional challenges that its government, its security forces, and its economy must meet that affect all Iraqis. These same challenges will play a major role in US efforts to create a lasting strategic partnership with Iraq, as well as in shaping Iraq's relations with all other states.
Reforming ANSF Metrics
The new Commanders Unit Assessment Tool (CUAT) for measuring the capabilities of the ANSF represents a significant improvement over the old Capability Milestone (CM) system. The old system was too rigid, too narrowly quantitative, and measured only a handful of relatively unimportant metrics. It overstated ANSF capabilities, yet it was often used uncritically as an indicator for ANSF progress by policymakers and analysts alike. The new CUAT system is far more flexible, incorporates better metrics, and is much more narrative-based. While clearly an improvement, the CUAT does not correct many of the fundamental problems of the old CM system, and its very flexibility may create some new problems. The CUAT system was instituted earlier this year, and no doubt assessors in the field, NTM-A, IJC and the IDC are still tailoring it and working out the kinks. This memo represents a first impression of its strengths and weaknesses, and suggests several areas for improvement.
