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The Policy Landscape of Agricultural Water Management in Pakistan
Irrigation is central to Pakistans agriculture; and managing the countrys canal, ground, and surface water resources in a more efficient, equitable, and sustainable way will be crucial to meeting agricultural production challenges, including increasing agricultural productivity and adapting to climate change. The water component of the International Food Policy Research Institutes Pakistan Strategy Support Program (PSSP) is working to address these topics through high-quality research and policy engagement. As one of the first activities of this program, the PSSP undertook this assessment of the policy landscape for agricultural water management in Pakistan, to better understand how to...
The Child Health Implications of Privatizing Africas Urban Water Supply
Identifying policies which can improve water sector management is critically important given the global burden of water-related disease. Each year, 1 in 10 child deathsroughly 800,000 in totalis the direct result of diarrhea. Can private-sector participation (PSP) in the urban piped water sector improve child health? The author uses child-level data from 39 African countries during 19862010 to show that introducing PSP decreases diarrhea among urban dwelling children under five years of age by 5.6 percentage points, or 35 percent of its mean prevalence. PSP also leads to greater reliance on piped water. To attribute causality, the author exploits time variation in the private water market share controlled by African countries former colonizers. A placebo analysis reveals that PSP does not affect symptoms of respiratory illness in the same children, nor does it affect a rural control group unaffected by PSP.
The Impact of Alternative Input Subsidy Exit Strategies on Malawis Maize Commodity Market
This study has been conducted in order to generate evidence of the visibility of exit from farm input subsidies in an African context. The study simulates the impact of alternative exit strategies from Malawis farm input subsidy program on maize markets. The simulation is conducted using a multiequation partial equilibrium model of the national maize market, which is sequentially linked via a price-linkage equation to local rural maize markets. The model accounts for market imperfections prevailing in the country that arise from government price interventions. Findings show that some alternative exit strategies have negative and sustained impacts on maize yields, production, and acreage al...
Reverse-Share-Tenancy and Marshallian Inefficiency
While there are ample empirical studies that claim the potential disincentive effects of sharecropping arrangements, the existing literature is shallow in explaining why share tenancy contracts are prevalent and diffusing in many developing countries. Using a unique tenant-landlord matched dataset from the Tigray region of Ethiopia, we are able to show how the tenants strategic response to the varying economic and tenure-security status of the landlords can explain sharecroppers productivity differentials. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to use tenantlandlord matched data that accounts for both the supply (landlord) and demand (tenant) side characteristics in anal...
Understanding the Role of Research in the Evolution of Fertilizer Policies in Malawi
This study examines the role of research in agricultural policy making in Malawi at a time when the Africa Union and the New Partnership for Africas Development have been seeking to promote greater evidenced-based decision making in agriculture. Drawing on both theory and actual past experiences documented in the literature, results are intended to improve our understanding of the extent to which research has played any role in influencing policy change in Malawi. This is done in the context of the evolution of the countrys fertilizer subsidy policies. Results point to some general lessons. First, strengthening the Ministry of Agricultures capacity for policy analysis and becoming more...
The Dialectics of Post-Soviet Modernity and the Changing Contours of Islamic Discourse in Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan’s independence came after seven decades of militant atheism of Soviet modernization project and emerged into staunch secularism of Western modernity, two factors that, on a par with the country’s precarious neighborhood, promised a sustained indigenous effort towards the desacralization of the country’s political space and the associated exclusion of religion from politics, a modern blueprint that the Azerbaijani state and its society have stood united to diligently follow over the cause of the country’s independent existence. Yet the specific dynamics facing the country in the third decade of independence and the changing contours of its international engagements have gra...
Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan
Weather shocks and natural disasters, it has been argued, represent a major threat to national and international security. Our paper contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflict by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan at different geographical and time scales between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict. In the future the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 21 to 30 percent under a median scenario, taking into account uncertainties in both the climate projection and the estimate of the response of violence to temperature variations. Extreme temperature shocks are found to strongly affect the likelihood of violence as well, but the predictive power is hindered by substantial uncertainty. Our paper also sheds light on the vulnerability of areas with particular biophysical characteristics or with vulnerable populations.
Dynamics of Transformation
Agriculture in African South of the Sahara (SSA) can be transformed if the right public support is provided at the initial stage, and it can sustain itself once the enabling environment is put in place. Successes are also specific to the location of projects. In Ghana, interesting insights are obtained from the successful Kpong Irrigation Project (KIP), contrasted with other major irrigation projects in the country. Through an exploratory review, we describe how a productive system evolved in KIP and how public support for critical aspects (accumulation of crop husbandry knowledge, selection and supply of profitable varieties, and mechanization of land preparation) might have created a productive environment that the private sector could enter and fill in the market for credit, processing, mechanization of harvesting, and other institutional voids that typically have constrained agricultural transformation in the rest of SSA. Slower progress in other projects also raises a number of questions. We conclude by summarizing those questions and some testable hypotheses for future research.
The Logic of Adaptive Sequential Experimentation in Policy Design
Inspired by the wide adoption of rigorous randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in medical research, economists and other social scientists have increasingly used RCTs in their research. As researchers pick up projects amenable to the RCT methodology, they likely leave out important questions to which RCTs cannot be directly applied. As a result, RCTs have been criticized for the proclivity of addressing trivial questions. As a matter of fact, in medical research RCTs are an integral part of adaptive sequential experiment designa few steps must be taken to screen out drugs that have toxins and strong side effects before running any RCTs on humans. In this paper, we argue that economists can learn a great deal from the design principles implemented in medical research. We develop a theoretical model to show the logic of adaptive sequential experiment design in the presence of uncertainty over negative effects and discuss how to choose samples in a population to minimize the experiment cost. We also point out the applications of our proposed framework in the economic domain, such as economic reforms and new product design.
Water for Food Security
Pakistan’s water management is at a critical watershed. The world’s seventh-most populous country faces serious challenges that will require improvements in both the "hardware" and "software" of agricultural water management. Water shortages are growing rapidly as a result of growing demand across all water-using sectors. Rapid population growth, from 175 million people in 2010 to an estimated 236 million by 2030 and 280 million by 2050, and international food-price spikes create pressure to increase agricultural production of staples; but demand for cash crops is also growing rapidly, including for cotton, fruit trees and tobacco, to raise rural incomes and generate rural employment to ...
