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Enhancing Business Investment in the United Kingdom
The paper addresses the issue of weak business investment in the United Kingdom (UK) by analyzing aggregate investment trends in the UK and other G7 peers, and investment drivers for UK firms. Data show that business investment has been structurally low in the UK, and likely the key driver of the UK’s relatively weaker growth performance since the middle of the last decade. Econometric investigations confirm a negative impact of Brexit-related uncertainty, the importance of financing constraints on firms, and a complementary role for public capital.
Construction Planning Reforms for Growth and Investment
The UK construction planning system is overly stringent and the localized and discretionary system of decision-making makes it highly unpredictable. It hinders new construction (both residential and commercial) and infrastructure projects, restricting labor mobility (as workers stay trapped in suboptimal jobs due to unaffordable housing in areas with better prospects). It also raises investment costs for businesses, who often endure long and uncertain wait times or are forced to relocate to suboptimal locations. International and domestic experience suggests that a concerted overhaul of the system is needed, focusing on systemic reforms that reduce discretionary decision-making in granting p...
Monetary Policy Issues in the UK
After hiking rates 14 consecutive times between December 2021 and August 2023 to arrest above-target inflation, the Bank of England (BoE) has held rates at 5.25 percent since then. As the BoE prepares for easing, this paper examines three concurrent monetary policy questions: (a) how have the macroeconomic and financial effects of BoE monetary tightening during the current cycle compared with experiences in other major advanced economies (AEs), and with previous UK tightening cycles; (b) what is the impact of US Fed decisions on UK monetary transmission, and the attendant implications thereof for BoE communications; and (c) how do model-based predictions of UK monetary policy paths (which se...
Bangladesh
A Technical Assistance (TA) mission was conducted in Dhaka, Bangladesh, from March 5 to 9, 2023, to assist authorities in setting up a framework to assess physical climate risk in the financial system. The TA mission focused on (i) proposing a risk assessment framework tailored to available data, with a focus on the impact of floods on the banking sector, (ii) taking stock of financial and climate data availability and identifying data gaps, (iii) setting up collaboration and data sharing mechanisms, taking into account legal obligations and confidentiality constraints, between multiple agencies. The mission identified the main climate and financial data sources and existing data gaps, propo...
Firm Leverage and Boom-Bust Cycles
This paper explores the dynamic relationship between firm debt and real outcomes using data from 24 European economies over the period of 2000-2018. Based on macro data, it shows that a rise in credit to firms is associated with an increase in employment growth in the short-term, but employment growth declines in the medium-term. This pattern remains similar, even when the changes in credit to households are accounted for. Next, using data from a large sample of firms, it shows that firm leverage buildups predict similar boom-bust growth cycles in firm employment: Firms with a larger increase in leverage experience a boost in employment growth in the short-term, but employment growth decreas...
United Kingdom
United Kingdom: Selected Issues
United Kingdom
United Kingdom: Selected Issues
Malta
Malta has experienced an impressive recovery from the pandemic and demonstrated resilience to shocks resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. With weaker growth in Europe and waning post-pandemic pent-up demand, staff expect growth to decelerate somewhat but continue to expand by 61⁄4 percent in 2023 and 5 percent in 2024, among the highest in Europe. Persistent inflationary pressures are expected, while concern has risen about growing capacity constraints. The financial system has demonstrated resilience to successive shocks.
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