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Sovereign Debt Repatriation During Crises
We use a new, comprehensive data set on the sovereign debt investor base to document three novel empirical facts: (i) sovereign debt is repatriated - that is, shifted from external private to domestic investors - prior to sovereign defaults; (ii) not all crises are equal: evidence for repatriation during banking and currency crises is more limited; and (iii) the nature of defaults matters: external investors do not leave during preemptive debt restructurings. We further show that repatriation appears to be prevalent when defaults happen in large markets with low capital controls. The data set we use is uniquely suited to analyzing investor base dynamics during rare crises due to its large cross-section and time series, covering 180 countries from 1989 to 2020.
Ruling Ideas
"Why do some countries governed by moderate neoliberalism while others by a radical one? Looking at Spain and Romania, the book points to the role of local intellectual traditions, the strength of international alternatives, the resources of the local advocates of neoliberalism and their vulnerability to external coercion"--
Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows
Capital flows data from Balance of Payments statistics often lag 3-6 months, which renders timely surveillance and policy deliberation difficult. To address the tension, we propose two coincident composite indicators for capital flows that improve upon existing proxies. We find that the most widely used proxy, the capital tracker, often overpredicts net flows by 30 percent. We augment the tracker into a composite indicator by assigning to it a lesser but optimally estimated weight while incorporating other regional and global coincident correlates of capital flows. The proposed composite indicator of net flows outperforms the capital tracker in its original format. To complement the indicator with an even timelier variant, we also utilize the EPFR high frequency coverage of gross bond and equity flows as an indicator on foreign investors' sentiment.
Default
"This is the riveting tale of Argentina's sovereign debt drama, a complicated story that unfolds over 15 years and involves a host of characters, institutions, and issues. The country defaulted on its debt in 2001, restructured it in 2005, and was in court for the ensuing decade. The debt restructuring and the lawsuits that followed have had an outsized impact on sovereign debt law, sovereign debt markets, and sovereign debt policy: Argentina's pending default triggered an intense fight in Washington over the role of the IMF in sovereign debt restructurings; Argentina's default and its losses in court triggered the adoption (and enhancement) of a quasi-bankruptcy feature in sovereign bonds called Collective Action Clauses; the Argentina bond cases generated numerous opinions from the courts relating to what creditors can and can't do to try to collect from a country in defau
When Nations Can't Default
What happens when countries cannot default on its debt? This history of war reparations shows that state survival trumps economics.
Country Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks
This paper considers the role of country-level opacity (the lack of availability of information) in amplifying shocks emanating from financial centers. We provide a simple model where, in the presence of ambiguity (uncertainty about the probability distribution of returns), prices in emerging markets react more strongly to signals from the developed market, the more opaque the emerging market is. The second contribution is empirical evidence for bond and equity markets in line with this prediction. Increasing the availability of information about public policies, improving accounting standards, and enhancing legal frameworks can help reduce the unpleasant side effects of financial globalization.
Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
This paper analyzes the behavior of gross capital inflows across 34 emerging markets (EMs). We first confirm that aggregate inflows to EMs co-move considerably. We then report three findings: (i) the aggregate co-movement conceals significant heterogeneity across asset types as only bank-related and portfolio bond and equity inflows do co-move; (ii) while global push factors in advanced economies mostly explain the common dynamics, their relative importance varies by type of flow; and (iii) the sensitivity to common dynamics varies significantly across borrower countries, with market structure characteristics (especially the composition of the foreign investor base and the level of liquidity) rather than borrower country’s institutional fundamentals strongly affecting sensitivities. Countries relying more on international funds and global banks are found to be more sensitive to push factors. Our findings suggest that EMs need to closely monitor their lenders and investors to assess their inflow exposures to global push factors.
Cyprus: Technical Assistance Report-Debt and Cash Management
In tandem with Eurozone financial market developments and the prevalence of negative interest rates in 2020, Cypriot banks passed through the costs of their liquidity to their customers, reducing the attractiveness of placing PDMO cash surpluses in domestic bank deposits. Suitable investment alternatives to central bank deposits for the PDMO’s liquidity buffer are scarce, given negative yields on other Eurozone sovereign and agency issues. This situation is shared by the PDMO with almost all of its Eurozone peers. While this is likely to persist in the short term, it should not preclude establishing a framework governing the PDMO’s investment policy or a suitable set of guidelines.
Trade Costs of Sovereign Debt Restructurings
Sovereign debt restructurings have been shown to influence the dynamics of imports and exports. This paper shows that the impact can vary substantially depending on whether the restructuring takes place preemptively without missing payments to creditors, or whether it takes place after a default has occurred. We document that countries with post-default restructurings experience on average: (i) a more severe and protracted decline in imports, (ii) a larger fall in exports, and (iii) a sharper and more prolonged decline in both GDP, investment and real exchange rate than preemptive cases. These stylized facts are confirmed by panel regressions and local projection estimates, and a range of robustness checks including for the endogeneity of the restructuring strategy. Our findings suggest that a country’s choice of how to go about restructuring its debt can have major implications for the costs it incurs from restructuring.
The Frontiers of Corporate Food in Egypt
This book details the development and growth of a corporate agri-food system in Egypt. The system includes food processing and an animal protein complex largely for corporate consumer markets in the country-from street kiosks to fast food outlets to hypermarkets-and fresh fruits and vegetables largely for export. Marion W. Dixon demonstrates the importance of reclaimed lands, or frontiers, for the development and growth of the corporate agri-food system since the 1980s. Various forces, including multiple threats from plant and animal diseases (the Avian flu, especially) have pushed and pulled agribusiness to new lands. This system's growth has also rested on imports and contract farming. As ...
