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Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy
Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.
Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis
This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep recessions (expansions) cause persistent damage (improvement) to the labor market, thereby reducing (increasing) potential output. Applying the model to U.S. data results in significantly smaller estimates of output gaps, and higher estimates of the NAIRU, after the global financial crisis, compared to estimates without hysteresis. The smaller output gaps partly explain the absence of persistent deflation despite the slow recovery during 2010-2017. Going forward, if strong growth performance continues well beyond 2018, hysteresis is expected to result in a structural improvement in growth and employment.
Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy
Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.
Effectiveness of Capital Controls in Selected Emerging Markets in the 2000's
This paper estimates the effectiveness of capital controls in response to inflow surges in Brazil, Colombia, Korea, and Thailand in the 2000s. Controls are generally associated with a decrease in inflows and a lengthening of maturities, but the relationship is not statistically significant in all cases, and the effects are temporary. Controls are more successful in providing room for monetary policy than dampening currency appreciation pressures. We argue that the macroeconomic impact of capital controls depends on the extensiveness of the policy, the level of capital market development, the support provided by other policies, and the persistence of capital flows.
Hymns of Repentance
St Romanos the Melodist composed many hymns in Constantinople during the reign of Emperor Justinian, an age of political and cultural transformation, when the synthesis of Christian, Roman, and Greek elements gave birth to a new civilization. Romanos straddled the worlds of antiquity and Byzantium, and his hymns are a unique fusion of classical rhetoric, Syriac poetry, and the theology of the Cappadocian Fathers. Scripture comes to life in his hymns, inviting the faithful to encounter biblical events in their own liturgical experience, where the human-divine encounter was enriched with sacred music and holy ritual, amplifying moments of desire, sadness, and joy. This volume brings together f...
Journey to Karabakh
"Originally published in Georgian as Mogzauroba Qarabaghshi by Bakur Sulakauri Publishing, Tbilisi, Georgia, 1992."--Title page verso.
Me, Margarita
Short stories about men and women, love and hate, sex and disappointment, cynicism and hope--perhaps unique in that none of the stories reveal the time or place in they occur: the world is too small now for it to matter. A disillusioned woman, the narrator doesn't mince words about the imperfection of her life, her relationships, her prospects; yet what might in other hands seem discouraging is presented with such humor the reader can't help but feel there may yet be hope... for most of us.
Asian Monetary Integration
This paper examines the possibility of Asian monetary integration. The paper highlights that the objectives and motivations behind the continuing debate for Asian monetary integration have now evolved. The objectives are no longer defensive, no longer preoccupied with crisis prevention or resolution. They are now more forward looking; they are about growth, about greater trade integration, about spurring greater cross-border flows of investment within Asia, and about promoting the integration and deepening of financial markets.
Resilience, Dynamism, Trust: 50 Landmark Statements By Mas Leaders
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is Singapore's central bank and integrated financial regulator. As a central bank, MAS promotes sustained, non-inflationary economic growth through the conduct of monetary policy and close macroeconomic surveillance and analysis. It manages Singapore's exchange rate, official foreign reserves, and liquidity in the banking sector. As an integrated financial supervisor, MAS fosters a sound financial services sector through its prudential oversight of all financial institutions in Singapore — banks, insurers, capital market intermediaries, financial advisors and financial market infrastructures. It is also responsible for well-functioning financial markets, sound conduct, and investor education. MAS also works with the financial industry to promote Singapore as a dynamic international financial centre. It facilitates the development of infrastructures, adoption of technology, and upgrading of skills in the financial industry.This 50th anniversary compilation provides convenient access to the thinking behind MAS' policies and strategies as they have evolved, through 50 landmark statements by its leaders.
