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Trust and Crisis Management in the European Union
This book addresses and explains the divergent economic and political outcomes of the financial crisis in the eight European Union member states which needed a bailout program: Cyprus, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Latvia, Portugal, Romania and Spain. Looking at crisis management as a series of relationships where cooperation is essential, this book focuses on the essential role of trust during the process. It argues that the presence or absence of trust during the negotiation and implementation of the bailout program leads to self-reinforcing cycles of success and failure. The analysis of these eight countries also explores the institutional sources of trust – it shows that a commitment to limited government is associated with both economic success and resistance to populism. The final chapter considers the implications for the future of the EU and calls attention to the importance of strengthening domestic institutions in order to bridge the gap between concerns over moral hazard and expectations of solidarity.
The GVAR Handbook
The GVAR is a Global Vector Auto-Regression model of the global economy. Its main feature is to take into account the financial and real linkages connecting the major world economies. This book provides an overview of the GVAR and its applications: forecasting, finance issues, and regional studies.
Taming the Tide of Capital Flows
A comprehensive examination of policy measures intended to help emerging markets contend with large and volatile capital flows. While always episodic in nature, capital flows to emerging market economies have been especially volatile since the global financial crisis. After peaking at $680 billion in 2007, flows to emerging markets turned negative at the onset of crisis in 2008, then rebounded only to recede again during the U.S. sovereign debt downgrade in 2011. Since then, flows have continued to swing wildly, leaving emerging market policy makers wondering whether they can put in place policies during the inflow phase that will soften the blow when flows subsequently recede. This book off...
Capital Controls or Macroprudential Regulation?
International capital flows can create significant financial instability in emerging economies because of pecuniary externalities associated with exchange rate movements. Does this make it optimal to impose capital controls or should policymakers rely on domestic macroprudential regulation? This paper presents a tractable model to show that it is desirable to employ both types of instruments: Macroprudential regulation reduces overborrowing, while capital controls increase the aggregate net worth of the economy as a whole by also stimulating savings. The two policy measures should be set higher the greater an economy's debt burden and the higher domestic inequality. In our baseline calibration based on the East Asian crisis countries, we find optimal capital controls and macroprudential regulation in the magnitude of 2 percent. In advanced countries where the risk of sharp exchange rate depreciations is more limited, the role for capital controls subsides. However, macroprudential regulation remains essential to mitigate booms and busts in asset prices.
World Economic Outlook, April 2006
The World Economic Outlook is the product of a unique international exercise in information gathering and analysis performed by IMF staff to guide key initiatives and to serve IMF member countries. Published at least twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, the World Economic Outlook offers a comprehensive picture of the international economic situation and prospects for the future. With its analyses backed by the expertise and resources of over 1,100 IMF economists, the World Economic Outlook is the authoritative reference in its field. Today, even small economic fluctuations can trigger major financial swings. It’s vital to have the latest perspective on what’s happening and where it could lead in the coming months and years. The World Economic Outlook brings you that perspective, giving you analyses, forecasts, and figures you’ll use all year long.
The Euro at Five
As a long-run competitor and collaborator with the dollar, the euro creates the potential for a bipolar international monetary system, offering unprecedented challenges and opportunities to economic policymakers. This book explores the euro's international role, its record till its fifth year, and its future.
Booms and Busts: An Encyclopedia of Economic History from the First Stock Market Crash of 1792 to the Current Global Economic Crisis
This timely and authoritative set explores three centuries of good times and hard times in major economies throughout the world. More than 400 signed articles cover events from Tulipmania during the 1630s to the U.S. federal stimulus package of 2009, and introduce readers to underlying concepts, recurring themes, major institutions, and notable figures. Written in a clear, accessible style, "Booms and Busts" provides vital insight and perspective for students, teachers, librarians, and the general public - anyone interested in understanding the historical precedents, causes, and effects of the global economic crisis. Special features include a chronology of major booms and busts through history, a glossary of economic terms, a guide to further research, an appendix of primary documents, a topic finder, and a comprehensive index. It features 1,050 pages; three volumes; 8-1/2" X 11"; topic finder; photos; chronology; glossary; primary documents; bibliography; and, index.
Elasticity Optimism
In most macroeconomic models, the substitutability between domestic and foreign goods is calibrated using aggregated data. This imposes homogeneous elasticities across goods, and the calibration is only valid under this assumption. If elasticities are heterogeneous, the aggregate substitutability is a weighted average of good-specific elasticities, which in general cannot be inferred from aggregated data. We identify structurally the substitutability in US goods using multilateral trade data. We impose homogeneity, and find an aggregate elasticity similar in value to conventional macroeconomic estimates. It is more than twice larger with sectoral heterogeneity. We discuss the implications in various areas of international economics.
Republic of Mozambique
This Selected Issues paper on Mozambique provides an assessment of direct taxation and options to strengthen tax administration. The study analyzes the question of why Mozambique accumulated unsustainable debt, and discusses the potential factors of the evolution of the debt burden over time. The report also describes the characteristics and causes of rural poverty, the issues to be addressed for its reduction, and analyzes the opportunities and constraints facing smallholder agriculture and cash cropping. It also provides a statistical appendix report for the country.
