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In 2000, UN member states pledged to halve world poverty by 2015, among other Millennium Development Goals (MDG's). But progress has been elusive since. The chapters in this volume address disparate problems in achieving the UN Development Agenda, from the complex effects of trade and financial liberalisation to the realities of development aid, itself a central pillar of the MDGs. The unifying theme is one of economic and social integration, and an emphasis on long-term strategic investments in education, health and infrastructure.
An examination of U.S. economic policy in the 1990s, by leading policy makers as well as academic economists.
When estimating DSGE models, the number of observable economic variables is usually kept small, and it is conveniently assumed that DSGE model variables are perfectly measured by a single data series. Building upon Boivin and Giannoni (2006), we relax these two assumptions and estimate a fairly simple monetary DSGE model on a richer data set. Using post-1983 U.S.data on real output, inflation, nominal interest rates, measures of inverse money velocity, and a large panel of informational series, we compare the data-rich DSGE model with the regular - few observables, perfect measurement - DSGE model in terms of deep parameter estimates, propagation of monetary policy and technology shocks and sources of business cycle fluctuations. We document that the data-rich DSGE model generates a higher implied duration of Calvo price contracts and a lower slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. To reduce the computational costs of the likelihood-based estimation, we employed a novel speedup as in Jungbacker and Koopman (2008) and achieved the time savings of 60 percent.
Ukraine has made impressive progress in restructuring and stabilizing its economy over the past two years, and yet much remains to be done to revive output and establish a market economy. The 16 papers included in this volume, edited by Peter K. Cornelius and Patrick Lenain, were presented at a seminar sponsored by the IMF and the World Bank in July 1996, which brought together government officials, academics, and staffs of international organizations to discuss a comprehensive medium- term strategy for Ukraine. The papers cover the medium-term macroeconomic framework; wages, poverty, and social safety net reform; private sector development; trade policies and sectoral reforms; and institution building and good governance.
The demands on monetary and exchange rate regimes in CESEE have evolved, in line with the region’s development. In the 1990s, the immediate challenge was to rein in excessive inflation following transition, and to establish basic monetary order. These objectives have been achieved, owing largely to successful exchange rate–based stabilization. With this accomplished, the focus has shifted to cyclical monetary management, and to appropriately managing monetary conditions during CESEE’s growth and income convergence to the euro area. Flexible exchange rates—and the ensuing capacity of monetary conditions to adapt to the economies’ needs—are likely to remain advantages, especially to extent that CESEE’s GDP and income levels will resume convergence to the euro area. Once this process restarts, tighter monetary conditions will again be needed to limit goods and asset price inflation, and to contain growth imbalances.
The IMF staff report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation focuses on Malaysia’s economic developments and policies. The IMF report discusses that continued growth in domestic demand, especially investment, and a pickup in external demand should help maintain robust growth going forward despite the fiscal tightening. Amidst concerns about Malaysia’s public finances and sharp narrowing of the external surplus in spring–summer of 2013, authorities have taken timely action to secure fiscal sustainability and assure markets. It suggests that authorities’ decisions in 2013 are close to a fiscal policy breakthrough aiming to contain federal debt and related fiscal risks.
This book brings together an international team of contributors to assess the political economy of the IMF and World Bank programmes. The cutting-edge techniques of the new political economy are thus brought to bear on international issues for the first time. The book includes contributions from leading North American economists - Stephen Coate, Stephen Morris, Ravi Kanbur and Allen Drazen - as well as European-based analysts including Graham Bird and Frances Stewart.
The reform of fiscal policies and institutions lies at the heart of structural adjustment in developing countries. Although the immediate aim of such reform is to reduce fiscal imbalances to achieve macroeconomic stability, the long-term goal is to secure more durable improvements in fiscal performance. This study reviews the fiscal reform experience of 36 low-income developing countries that undertook macroeconomic and structural adjustment in the context of the IMF's Structural Adjustment Facility and Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility during the period of 1985-95.
In principle, international financial institutions (IFIs) can use their leverage as creditors to prompt governments to undertake policy reform. Yet such lending has been frequently linked to unsustainable debt levels and little reform. This paper illustrates how the dual roles of IFIs as purveyors of credit and monitors of reform may help explain these negative outcomes. When debt levels rise, the IFIs reforms goals may become subordinated to its creditor's interest, compromising the enforcement of conditionality. Attracted by this prospect, malevolent governments strategically reform, enhancing their reputation in order to maintain lending and build their debt stock. Once debt levels are sufficiently large, such governments can stop policy reforms, assured that lending will continue.