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The Dynamic Implications of Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries
The effects of debt relief on incentives to accumulate debt, consume, and invest are an important concern for donors and recipients. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy with a minimum consumption requirement and an endogenous relief probability, we show that excessive debt accumulation is consistent with an anticipation of a future debt relief. Simulations of the calibrated model using 1982-2006 Ugandan data suggest that debt-relief episodes are likely to have only a temporary impact on the level of debt in low-income countries, while being associated with more consumption and less invesment. The long-run debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to be about twice as high with debt relief than without it.
Budget Rigidity in Latin America and the Caribbean
Policy makers in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) often complain that poor fiscal performance in their countries is a result of a high degree of spending rigidity. Despite being a common complaint, the issue has remained largely ignored by the literature because of the lack of adequate measures of rigidity that allow cross-country and time series comparability. This report helps close this gap by introducing a new measure of spending rigidities that can be easily applied to multiple countries. It focuses on the categories of spending that are naturally inflexible--wages, pensions, transfers to subnational governments, and debt service--and separates them into two components: structural ...
Bankruptcy and Firm Dynamics
Financial frictions have been documented as an important determinant of firm dynamics. In this paper I model bankruptcy procedures, liquidation in particular, as an institutional feature that affects both sides of financial transactions. I construct a model of firm dynamics that generate endogenous borrowing limits and I find that a) inefficient bankruptcy procedures can have quantitatively important aggregate effects, but more importantly; b) that such effects would not be directly visible in the firms that industrial censuses and surveys focus on. I conclude that to capture the effects of the legal framework we need to look beyond the existing firms.
IMF Research Bulletin, September 2011
The September 2011 issue of the IMF's quarterly "Research Bulletin" features a Q&A discussion about economic recovery in countries emerging after war or other open. The research summaries in this issue include: "Revisiting Capital Controls"; and "Capital Flows and Financial Stability: Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Responses." The September issue also provides details on IMF visiting scholars (mainly during the September - December 2011 period), as well as recent Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes published by the IMF.
Artha Suchi
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Perspectivas económicas regionales, abril de 2012
El crecimiento en buena parte de América Latina sigue siendo sólido, si bien se desaceleró en el segundo semestre de 2011 debido al efecto combinado de la adopción de políticas más restrictivas y las incertidumbres mundiales. Según nuestro escenario base, el crecimiento en América Latina y el Caribe se moderará a aproximadamente 33⁄4 por ciento en 2012, desde alrededor de 41⁄2 por ciento el año anterior. Para muchos países, el alto nivel de los precios de las materias primas y las favorables condiciones de financiamiento externo supondrán un viento a favor. En otros países, el débil crecimiento en Estados Unidos y otros países avanzados socios, o los problemas fiscales int...
Perspectivas económicas, octubre 2011: Las Américas
A pesar del reciente deterioro del entorno económico mundial, las proyecciones para la región indican tan solo un debilitamiento moderado de las perspectivas. En la edición de octubre de 2011 de Perspectivas económicas: Las Américas, el Departamento del Hemisferio Occidental advierte, sin embargo, que los riesgos a la baja son severos. Una fuerte desaceleración en Asia, provocada, por ejemplo, por una recesión en las economías avanzadas, podría afectar a los precios de las materias primas, lo que tendría efectos negativos en los países exportadores de materias primas de América Latina. Dado que la política monetaria a nivel mundial probablemente seguirá siendo laxa, los flujos ...
