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The Fascination of Probability, Statistics and their Applications
Collecting together twenty-three self-contained articles, this volume presents the current research of a number of renowned scientists in both probability theory and statistics as well as their various applications in economics, finance, the physics of wind-blown sand, queueing systems, risk assessment, turbulence and other areas. The contributions are dedicated to and inspired by the research of Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen who, since the early 1960s, has been and continues to be a very active and influential researcher working on a wide range of important problems. The topics covered include, but are not limited to, econometrics, exponential families, Lévy processes and infinitely divisible distributions, limit theory, mathematical finance, random matrices, risk assessment, statistical inference for stochastic processes, stochastic analysis and optimal control, time series, and turbulence. The book will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in probability, statistics and their applications.
Ambit Stochastics
Drawing on advanced probability theory, Ambit Stochastics is used to model stochastic processes which depend on both time and space. This monograph, the first on the subject, provides a reference for this burgeoning field, complete with the applications that have driven its development. Unique to Ambit Stochastics are ambit sets, which allow the delimitation of space-time to a zone of interest, and ambit fields, which are particularly well-adapted to modelling stochastic volatility or intermittency. These attributes lend themselves notably to applications in the statistical theory of turbulence and financial econometrics. In addition to the theory and applications of Ambit Stochastics, the book also contains new theory on the simulation of ambit fields and a comprehensive stochastic integration theory for Volterra processes in a non-semimartingale context. Written by pioneers in the subject, this book will appeal to researchers and graduate students interested in empirical stochastic modelling.
Commodities, Energy and Environmental Finance
This volume is a collection of chapters covering the latest developments in applications of financial mathematics and statistics to topics in energy, commodity financial markets and environmental economics. The research presented is based on the presentations and discussions that took place during the Fields Institute Focus Program on Commodities, Energy and Environmental Finance in August 2013. The authors include applied mathematicians, economists and industry practitioners, providing for a multi-disciplinary spectrum of perspectives on the subject. The volume consists of four sections: Electricity Markets; Real Options; Trading in Commodity Markets; and Oligopolistic Models for Energy Pro...
Renewable Energy: Forecasting and Risk Management
Gathering selected, revised and extended contributions from the conference ‘Forecasting and Risk Management for Renewable Energy FOREWER’, which took place in Paris in June 2017, this book focuses on the applications of statistics to the risk management and forecasting problems arising in the renewable energy industry. The different contributions explore all aspects of the energy production chain: forecasting and probabilistic modelling of renewable resources, including probabilistic forecasting approaches; modelling and forecasting of wind and solar power production; prediction of electricity demand; optimal operation of microgrids involving renewable production; and finally the effect of renewable production on electricity market prices. Written by experts in statistics, probability, risk management, economics and electrical engineering, this multidisciplinary volume will serve as a reference on renewable energy risk management and at the same time as a source of inspiration for statisticians and probabilists aiming to work on energy-related problems.
Stochastics of Environmental and Financial Economics
These Proceedings offer a selection of peer-reviewed research and survey papers by some of the foremost international researchers in the fields of finance, energy, stochastics and risk, who present their latest findings on topical problems. The papers cover the areas of stochastic modeling in energy and financial markets; risk management with environmental factors from a stochastic control perspective; and valuation and hedging of derivatives in markets dominated by renewables, all of which further develop the theory of stochastic analysis and mathematical finance. The papers were presented at the first conference on “Stochastics of Environmental and Financial Economics (SEFE)”, being part of the activity in the SEFE research group of the Centre of Advanced Study (CAS) at the Academy of Sciences in Oslo, Norway during the 2014/2015 academic year.
Advanced Mathematical Methods for Finance
This book presents innovations in the mathematical foundations of financial analysis and numerical methods for finance and applications to the modeling of risk. The topics selected include measures of risk, credit contagion, insider trading, information in finance, stochastic control and its applications to portfolio choices and liquidation, models of liquidity, pricing, and hedging. The models presented are based on the use of Brownian motion, Lévy processes and jump diffusions. Moreover, fractional Brownian motion and ambit processes are also introduced at various levels. The chosen blend of topics gives an overview of the frontiers of mathematics for finance. New results, new methods and...
Rough Volatility
Volatility underpins financial markets by encapsulating uncertainty about prices, individual behaviors, and decisions and has traditionally been modeled as a semimartingale, with consequent scaling properties. The mathematical description of the volatility process has been an active topic of research for decades; however, driven by empirical estimates of the scaling behavior of volatility, a new paradigm has emerged, whereby paths of volatility are rougher than those of semimartingales. According to this perspective, volatility behaves essentially as a fractional Brownian motion with a small Hurst parameter. The first book to offer a comprehensive exploration of the subject, Rough Volatility...
Analytic Theory of Itô-Stochastic Differential Equations with Non-smooth Coefficients
This book provides analytic tools to describe local and global behavior of solutions to Itô-stochastic differential equations with non-degenerate Sobolev diffusion coefficients and locally integrable drift. Regularity theory of partial differential equations is applied to construct such solutions and to obtain strong Feller properties, irreducibility, Krylov-type estimates, moment inequalities, various types of non-explosion criteria, and long time behavior, e.g., transience, recurrence, and convergence to stationarity. The approach is based on the realization of the transition semigroup associated with the solution of a stochastic differential equation as a strongly continuous semigroup in...
Asymptotic Properties of Permanental Sequences
This SpringerBriefs employs a novel approach to obtain the precise asymptotic behavior at infinity of a large class of permanental sequences related to birth and death processes and autoregressive Gaussian sequences using techniques from the theory of Gaussian processes and Markov chains. The authors study alpha-permanental processes that are positive infinitely divisible processes determined by the potential density of a transient Markov process. When the Markov process is symmetric, a 1/2-permanental process is the square of a Gaussian process. Permanental processes are related by the Dynkin isomorphism theorem to the total accumulated local time of the Markov process when the potential density is symmetric, and by a generalization of the Dynkin theorem by Eisenbaum and Kaspi without requiring symmetry. Permanental processes are also related to chi square processes and loop soups. The book appeals to researchers and advanced graduate students interested in stochastic processes, infinitely divisible processes and Markov chains.
