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Ecuador
Ecuador is making significant progress in the implementation of its economic reform program. The authorities have embarked on a set of decisive policy actions and reforms to address fiscal and external imbalances, supported by the 48-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement approved by the Executive Board in May 2024 of SDR 3 billion (430 percent of quota, about US$4 billion). The core objectives of the EFF-supported program are to (i) strengthen fiscal sustainability, while protecting vulnerable groups; (ii) safeguard dollarization and macroeconomic stability; (iii) rebuild liquidity buffers; (iv) enhance financial stability and integrity; and (v) further advance the structural reform agenda to promote sustainable and inclusive growth.
Ecuador
Following the completion of a 27-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement in December 2022, political uncertainty, a security crisis, and exogenous shocks to oil revenue and interest rates led to a sharp macroeconomic and fiscal deterioration. The authorities implemented swift and bold measures in early 2024 to address the fiscal and liquidity challenges and requested a 48-month EFF arrangement of SDR 3 billion (about US$4 billion, 430 percent of quota) to support their policy plans and advance an ambitious structural reform agenda.
Panama
GDP growth in 2023 was strong (7.3 percent), exceeding expectations for the third year in a row since the downturn in 2020. Unemployment is near pre-crisis levels while inflation has moderated. Government bond spreads increased in the second half of 2023 as markets became concerned that failure to meet the fiscal targets would lead to a loss of investment grade status. However, the overall fiscal deficit dropped from 4.0 percent of GDP in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023, and the Social and Fiscal Responsibility Law (SFRL) target was met. Following a Supreme Court ruling that the new contract with copper mine Minera was unconstitutional, the government ordered the closing of the mine. Banks are, on average, well capitalized and liquid, and stay broadly resilient in an adverse scenario.
Senegal
This paper presents Senegal’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The sharp global economic downturn and domestic containment measures have led to a substantial reduction in economic activity, with sectors such as tourism, transport, construction, and retail particularly hard-hit, and the pandemic in Europe is also translating into lower remittances. As a result, the short-term economic outlook has deteriorated significantly, with large uncertainties surrounding the duration and spread of the pandemic. The IMF’s emergency financing under the RCF and the RFI is expected to provide much-needed liquidity to support the authorities’ response to the crisis and could catalyze further assistance from the international community, preferably in the form of grants. Additional concessional donor support will be critical to close the remaining financing gap, ease the adjustment burden, and preserve Senegal’s impressive economic achievements. Ensuring that disbursed funds are used in a well-targeted, cost-effective and transparent manner remains imperative.
Sustaining Economic Growth in Asia
Economic growth, inflation, and interest rates have declined in Asia, just as they have in the United States and Europe. This volume explores the relevance to several Asian economies of the diagnosis known as “secular stagnation.” Leading experts on the region discuss the fiscal and monetary policy challenges of reviving growth without generating domestic financial imbalances. The essays on innovation, demographics, spillovers, and various policy proposals are accompanied by case studies focusing on Japan, South Korea, China, India, and Indonesia.
World Economic Outlook, April 2019
After strong growth in 2017 and early 2018, global economic activity slowed notably in the second half of last year, reflecting a confluence of factors affecting major economies. China’s growth declined following a combination of needed regulatory tightening to rein in shadow banking and an increase in trade tensions with the United States. The euro area economy lost more momentum than expected as consumer and business confidence weakened and car production in Germany was disrupted by the introduction of new emission standards; investment dropped in Italy as sovereign spreads widened; and external demand, especially from emerging Asia, softened. Elsewhere, natural disasters hurt activity i...
Completing Transition: The Main Challenges
"Completing Transition: The Main Challenges" was the topic around which the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and the Joint Vienna Institute organized a high-level conference in 2000, in a continuation of long-standing efforts to promote the dialogue and understanding between various regions in Europe. Given the heterogeneity of the transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the heterogeneity of progress toward convergence, the outlook for finishing transition is divergent. However, what will generally be important is corporate governance and institutional reform to sufficiently underpin macroeconomic success, plus a definite commitment of the responsible institutions in the transition countries to follow the chosen policies consistently.
Honduras
This paper presents Honduras’ Second Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Arrangement Under the Stand-By Credit Facility, Requests for Augmentation and Rephasing of Access, and Modification of Performance Criteria. The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and external spillovers are expected to hit Honduras hard, and the augmentation of access will support the authorities’ response to mitigate the impact. The completion of the reviews will help Honduras meet urgent balance of payments needs stemming from the pandemic, including increased health care and social spending. The authorities continue to take steps to improve the institutional framework in the electricity sector. Important measures have been incorporated into the program. These aim at improving governance and facilitating the unbundling of the national electricity company. Tariffs continue to reflect the cost of electricity provision while providing subsidies to the poor. The augmentation of access under the Stand-By Arrangement and the Arrangement under the Standby Credit Facility should help the authorities cover external financing needs to mitigate the impact of the pandemic.
Promoting Fiscal Discipline
Fiscal discipline is essential to improve and sustain economic performance, maintain macroeconomic stability, and reduce vulnerabilities. Discipline is especially important if countries, industrial as well as developing, are to successfully meet the challenges, and reap the benefits, of economic and financial globalization. Lack of fiscal discipline generally stems from the injudicious use of policy discretion. The benefits of discretion are seen in terms of the ability of policymakers to respond to unexpected shocks and in allowing elected political representatives to fulfill their mandates. But discretion can be misused, resulting in persistent deficits and procyclical policies, rising deb...
Belize
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Belize focused on structural reforms to raise growth and social inclusion; strengthening resilience to natural disasters; balanced medium-term fiscal consolidation; tax reform; and strengthening financial oversight and anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism actions. Public debt remains above 90 percent of gross domestic product, the current account deficit is projected to remain large over the medium term, and international reserves are just below three months of imports of goods and services. The pace of structural reform has been slow. Downside risks, including from slower US growth, natural disasters, crime, and renewed pressures on correspondent banking relationships could weaken growth and financial stability. Belize is adapting its tax regime in response to concerns from multilateral institutions regarding potentially harmful features. Sustaining Belize’s recent economic expansion, spurring private investment, and facilitating structural diversification hinges on strengthening the business environment.
