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We Are All in the Same Boat: Cross-Border Spillovers of Climate Risk through International Trade and Supply Chain
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 57

We Are All in the Same Boat: Cross-Border Spillovers of Climate Risk through International Trade and Supply Chain

Are assets in a landlocked country subject to sea-level rise risk? In this paper, we study the cross-border spillovers of physical climate risks through international trade and supply chain linkages. As we base our findings on historical data between 1970 and 2018, we observe that globalization increased the similarity of countries’ global climate risk exposures. Exposures to foreign climatic disasters in major trade partner countries (both upstream and downstream) lower the home-country stock market valuation for the aggregate market and for the tradable sectors. We also find that exposures to foreign long-term climate change risks reduce the asset price valuations of the tradable sectors at home. Findings in this paper suggest that climate adaptation efforts in a country can have positive externalities on other countries’ macrofinancial performance and stability through international trade.

Drivers of Cross-Border Banking in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 45

Drivers of Cross-Border Banking in Sub-Saharan Africa

Using data collected from pan-African banks’ (PABs), balance sheets and other sources (Orbis, Fitch), this study identifies some key patterns of cross-border investment in bank subsidiaries by key banking groups in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and discusses some of the determinants of this investment. Using a gravity model relating the annual value of a banking group’s investment in the net equity of its subsidiaries to a set of explanatory variables, the analysis finds that cross-border banking is in part driven by a search for yield, diversification, and expansion for strategic reasons.

Kuwait
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 66

Kuwait

This Selected Issues paper discusses the designing and implementing of Kuwait’s fiscal policy for the medium term. Fiscal policy has a major role to play in supporting macrostability and diversification. The fiscal strategy design and implementation on a yearly basis are based on a few key areas such as determining targets or ceilings for major fiscal parameters for a three-year rolling framework with binding next budget year and indicative two outer years, establishing a clear process for expressing policy objectives and their link to expenditure, etc. The illustrative budget sequencing with the fiscal strategy spearheading medium-term fiscal policymaking and linked to the annual budget process would support fiscal policy implementation.

World Economic Outlook, April 2011
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 242

World Economic Outlook, April 2011

The April 2011 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the global prospects for economic growth in the face of policy challenges that remain unaddressed and new challenges now coming to the fore.The recovery is gaining strength, but unemployment remains high in advanced economies, and new macroeconomic risks are building in emerging market economies. In advanced economies, the handoff from public to private demand is advancing, reducing concerns that diminishing fiscal policy support might cause a “double-dip” recession. Financial conditions continue to improve, although they remain unusually fragile. In many emerging market economies, demand is robust and overheating is a growing policy concern. Rising food and commodities prices present new risks to the global economy. Two chapters directly explore these new challenges. Chapter 3 reviews the potential impact of oil scarcity on global growth, and Chapter 4 explores the potential response of international capital flows to changes in the global macroeconomic environment.

Soaring of the Gulf Falcons
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 55

Soaring of the Gulf Falcons

A key priority for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is to create a dynamic non-oil tradable sector to support sustainable growth. Since export diversification takes a long time, it has to start now. We argue that the failure to diversify away from oil stems mainly from market failures rather than government failures. To tackle market failures, the government needs to change the incentive structure for workers and firms. Experiences of oil exporters that managed to diversify suggest that a focus on competing in international markets and an emphasis on technological upgrade and climbing the “quality ladder” are crucial.

Kuwait
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 86

Kuwait

This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper on Kuwait focuses on recent development in investment companies (ICs) and the business environment in the country. ICs continue to be vulnerable to swings in financial and real estate markets. They continue to have large exposures to domestic, regional, and international equity and real estate markets. Local banks’ lending to ICs declined in 2010–11 owing to banks’ write-offs of ICs loans. The financial situation of many ICs remains precarious, and there are 15 listed investment companies in a dire situation.

The Middle East Economies in Times of Transition
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 372

The Middle East Economies in Times of Transition

  • Type: Book
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  • Published: 2016-04-08
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  • Publisher: Springer

Diwan and Galal looks at the structure and prospects of the Middle East economies after the 2011 Uprisings, focusing on issues of economic growth, inequality, the impact of oil, and the unfolding political transitions. On the growth question, the book looks into the extent of structural transformation of the economy, the political economy reasons for the lack of structural change, and the external conditions in the EU and in the GCC that underpin the lack of structural change. On inequality, the book offers new measures of equality of opportunity in human development and in the job market, and it also reviews the complex political economy of subsidy removal. Regarding natural resources, the ...

Regional Economic Outlook, November 2012, Middle East and Central Asia
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 131

Regional Economic Outlook, November 2012, Middle East and Central Asia

The outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed. Oil-importing countries are witnessing tepid growth, and the moderate recovery expected in 2013 is subject to heightened downside risks. For the Arab countries in transition, ongoing political transitions also weigh on growth. With policy buffers largely eroded, the need for action on macroeconomic stabilization and growth-oriented reforms is becoming increasingly urgent. Countries will need to put in place safety nets to protect the poor and build consensus for some difficult fiscal choices. The region’s oil exporters are expected to post solid growth in 2012, in part due to Libya’s better-than-expected postwar recovery. ...

The Effective Lower Bound for the Policy Rate in Euroized Economies—An Application to the Case of Albania
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 28

The Effective Lower Bound for the Policy Rate in Euroized Economies—An Application to the Case of Albania

Based on the experience of the Bank of Albania, the paper proposes a framework to estimate the interest rate lower bound in small, open, and euroized economies. The paper introduces a stylized monitoring tool to assess the unintended consequences of low policy rates. The paper is the first attempt to estimate the impact of low interest rate on the public’s demand for banknote by denomination. A strong preference for banknotes leads economic agents to require a higher remuneration of banks’ deposits, lifting the lower bound above zero. Financial euroization also lifts the lower policy bound due to the higher propensity of substituting domestic with foreign currency–denominated assets as a function of the interest rate differential. Policies aiming at reducing financial euroization contribute to bring down the lower bound.