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The essence of scenarios
In 1965, Royal Dutch Shell started experimenting with a new approach to preparing for the future. This approach, called scenario planning, eschewed forecasting in favor of plausible alternative stories. By using stories, or scenarios, Shell aimed to avoid the false assumption that the future would look much like the presentan assumption that marred most corporate planning at the time. The Essence of Scenarios offers unmatched insight into the companys innovative practice, which still has a huge influence on the way businesses, governments, and other organizations think about and plan for the future. In the course of their research, Angela Wilkinson and Roland Kupers interviewed almost every ...
Strategic Reframing
This book provides clear information and guidance on how to do scenario planning to support strategy and public policy. The book describes the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach (OSPA), an intellectually rigorous and practical methodolgy.
Reframing the Problem of Climate Change
This book provides an evaluation of the science and policy debates on climate change and offers a reframing of the challenges they pose, as understood by key international experts and players in the field. It also gives an important and original perspective on interpreting climate action and provides compelling evidence of the weakness of arguments that frame climate policy as a win-or-lose situation. At the same time, the book goes beyond providing yet another description of climate change trends and policy processes. Its goal is to make available, in a series of in-depth reflections and insights by key international figures representing science, business, finance and civil society, what is...
Realistic Hope
We are running out of water, robots will take our jobs, we are eating ourselves to an early death, old age pension and health systems are bankrupting governments, and an immigration crisis is unravelling the European integration project. A growing number of nightmares, perfect storms, and global catastrophes create fear of the future. One response is technocratic optimism -- we'll invent our way out of these impending crises. Or we'll simply ignore them as politically too hot to handle, too uncomfortable for experts -- denied until crisis hits. History is littered with late lessons from early warnings. Cynicism is an excuse for inaction. Populism flourishes in the depths of despair. Despite the gloom, there is another way to look at the future. We don't have to be pessimistic or optimistic -- we can find realistic hope. This book is written by an international and influential collection of future shapers. It is aimed at anyone who is interested in learning to refresh the present, forge new common ground, and redesign the future.
Business Planning for Turbulent Times
The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock-on effects. These range from the impacts of warfare in the Middle East on energy futures, investment and global currencies to the vast and unpredictable impacts of climate change. All this threatens established strategic planning methods.This book is for business and organizational leaders who want and need to think through how best to deal with increasing turbulence, and with the complexity and uncertainty that come with it. The authors explain in clear language how future orientation and, specifically, modern scenario techniques help to address these conditions. They draw on examples from a wi...
Transformative Scenario Planning
People who are trying to solve tough economic, social, and environmental problems often find themselves frustratingly stuck. They can't solve their problems in their current context, which is too unstable or unfair or unsustainable. They can't transform this context on their own-it's too complex to be grasped or shifted by any one person or organization or sector. And the people whose cooperation they need don't understand or agree with or trust them or each other. Transformative scenario planning is a powerful new methodology for dealing with these challenges. It enables us to transform ourselves and our relationships and thereby the systems of which we are a part. At a time when divisions within and among societies are producing so many people to get stuck and to suffer, it offers hope-and a proven approach-for moving forward together.
Scenarios for Success
Properly researched and intelligently deployed, scenario planning is today’s most powerful tool for understanding and preparing for an uncertain future. Yet it remains a niche approach, poorly understood by leaders at large. To bring it into the strategy mainstream, leaders need advice on how to turn concepts (scenarios) into actions (strategy). Scenarios for Success delivers a unique and coherent account of the state of the scenario planning art. It is aimed particularly at those trying to implement its findings. Striking a balance between theory and practice, the contributors show how and why the core techniques of scenario thinking have endured and are still valuable, while bringing new tools and processes that keep scenario planning in touch with modern realities.
The Social Labs Revolution
Current responses to our most pressing societal challenges—from poverty to ethnic conflict to climate change—are not working. These problems are incredibly dynamic and complex, involving an ever-shifting array of factors, actors, and circumstances. They demand a highly fluid and adaptive approach, yet we address them by devising fixed, long-term plans. Social labs, says Zaid Hassan, are a dramatically more effective response. Social labs bring together a diverse a group of stakeholders—not to create yet another five-year plan but to develop a portfolio of prototype solutions, test those solutions in the real world, use the data to further refine them, and test them again. Hassan builds on a decade of experience—as well as drawing from cutting-edge research in complexity science, networking theory, and sociology—to explain the core principles and daily functioning of social labs, using examples of pioneering labs from around the world. He offers a new generation of problem solvers an effective, practical, and exciting new vision and guide.
Peter Ho's Menagerie
Peter Ho, former head of Singapore's Civil Service, has during his decades of public service brought to bear a deep appreciation of futures thinking, complexity, and strategic surprise to multiple aspects of governance and security. This volume, presented to Peter on the occasion of his 70th birthday, brings together contributions from his friends (from Singapore and beyond) and collaborators over many years of work covering several fields. The contributions touch on areas such as foresight, 'wicked problems', 'black swans', challenges to governance, Artificial Intelligence, and intelligence matters. The foreword is written by Teo Chee Hean, Singapore's Senior Minister and Coordinating Minister for National Security, and a longstanding friend of Peter.
The Future of Antarctica
As global great power competition intensifies, there is growing concern about the geopolitical future of Antarctica. This book delves into the question of how can we anticipate, prepare for, and potentially even shape that future? Now in its 60th year, the Antarctic Treaty System has been comparatively resilient and successful in governing the Antarctic region. This book assesses how our ability to make accurate predictions about the future of the Antarctic Treaty System reduces rapidly in the face of political and biophysical complexity, uncertainty, and the passage of time. This poses a critical risk for organisations making long-range decisions about their policy, strategy, and investment...
