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Reassessing the Role of State-Owned Enterprises in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe
The Central, Eastern, and South Eastern European (CESEE) region is ripe for a reassessment of the role of the state in economic activity. The rapid income convergence with Western Europe of the early 2000s was not always equally shared across society, and it has now slowed dramatically in many countries of the region.
Chile
After an impressive recovery from the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Chilean economy is confronting an acute deterioration of the external environment. Downside risks have materialized, including a tightening of global financial conditions, a slowdown in global growth, and a substantial drop in Chile’s terms of trade. Domestic economic policies are appropriately being recalibrated to mitigate risks and preserve macroeconomic stability, while supporting vulnerable groups. The authorities will continue leveraging on Chile’s very strong fundamentals and policy frameworks to implement an ambitious reform agenda in a challenging external environment.
Policy Reform Proposals To Promote The Fund’s Capacity To Support Countries Undertaking Debt Restructuring
A number of sovereign debt restructurings over the past three years faced significant delays but the cases are now moving forward. These delays slowed access of countries to much needed Fund financial support, and alongside creditors’ efforts the Fund had to find ways forward. With significant experience now gleaned from recent restructuring cases, it is important to extract the lessons for Fund policies from this episode. Delays in future Fund engagements need to be minimized where this can be done in a manner consistent with restoring the member to medium-term external viability and ensuring adequate safeguards for the Fund. Such delays can contribute to a deepening of debt distress, making adjustment more difficult, exacerbating the debt problem, and creating inefficiency costs for both the debtor and its creditors.
Ukraine
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The first review discussions took place in a context of heightened geopolitical tensions and deepening economic crisis. Intensification of the conflict in the East and escalation of the gas dispute with Gazprom, two of the key risks identified at the time of the program request, have materialized. These developments have affected confidence, balance of payment flows, economic activity, and budget execution. The banking sector has had to cope with larger-than-anticipated deposit outflows, and the exchange rate has depreciated more than expected at the time of the program request. The authorities have implemented policies broadly as agreed, but significant pressures have emer...
Republic of Poland
This paper reviews Poland’s economic performance under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement. Economic growth in Poland is expected to slow in 2012, given the deteriorating outlook for the euro area. Risks are on the downside, mainly reflecting the possibility of spillovers from escalating financial and sovereign stress in the rest of Europe. The authorities have continued to take steps to mitigate the effects of external shocks. Substantial fiscal consolidation is under way; sound monetary policy is helping inflation decline toward the target; and measures have been taken to safeguard financial stability.
Review of the Policy on Staff-Monitored Program With Executive Board Involvement
This paper reviews the policy on Staff-Monitored Program with Executive Board Involvement (PMB). The PMB plays an important niche role in the Fund’s toolkit in supporting members in circumscribed circumstances, while not supplanting the Staff-Monitored Programs (SMPs) as the primary tool for building or rebuilding a track record towards a Fund arrangement that supports a UCT-quality program. Experience with the PMB is limited to three country cases over the past sixteen months. Further experience would be needed to draw more definitive conclusions in terms of the usefulness of the PMB vis-à-vis alternative instruments and a more parsimonious Fund toolkit. In this context, the PMB is kept in the toolkit, and it will be expected to be reviewed in three years.
Fiscal Multipliers in Ukraine
Amid renewed crisis, falling tax revenues, and rising debt, Ukraine faces serious fiscal consolidation needs. Durable fiscal adjustment can support economic confidence and rebuild buffers but what is its overall impact on growth? How effective are revenue versus spending instruments? Does current or capital spending have a larger impact? Applying a structural vector autoregressive model, this paper finds that Ukraine’s near-term revenue and spending multipliers are well below one. In the medium-term, the revenue multiplier becomes insignificant (with a wide confidence interval) and the spending multiplier strengthens. Capital and current spending have a similar effect on growth but the cap...
Review Of Temporary Modifications To The Fund’s Access Limits In Response To The Covid-19 Pandemic
Over the course of the pandemic, the Fund has made several modifications to the access limits on the use of Fund’s resources to increase the borrowing space under the hard caps on emergency financing and under the annual limits that trigger exceptional access (EA) safeguards under GRA and PRGT. The current temporarily-increased access limits expire at end-December 2021, and absent policy changes, the limits would return to the lower pre-pandemic levels or to the new PRGT annual access limit. Staff proposes to let all access limits return to pre-pandemic levels (or the new PRGT annual access limit), with the exception of the cumulative access limits for emergency financing instruments, which would be extended at the current level for another 18 months.
Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis
We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in th...
The IMF Strategy for Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
This paper proposes a comprehensive Strategy to strengthen IMF support to FCS in accordance with the Fund’s mandate and comparative advantage. The Strategy is a response to the Board-endorsed recommendations of the 2018 Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) Report on The IMF and Fragile States. To achieve these goals, the Strategy will benefit from additional resources reflected in the FY23-25 Medium-Term Budget, as per the budget augmentation framework discussed by the Board in December 2021. The Strategy also provides measures to better support staff working on FCS. Given the inherent risks in FCS engagement, the Strategy will be phased in starting in FY22, with implementation gradually accelerating between FY23-FY25.
