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Monetary Economics
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International Monetary Economics
This introduction to the major topics of international monetary economics concentrates on the concepts and relationships involving exchange rates and balance of payments, the construction and manipulation of exchange rates, and multi-country co-operation a
Macroeconomics After a Decade of Rational Expectations
The main section of this paper discusses competing theories of aggregate supply that are currently being utilized in macroeconomic models with rational expectations. The distinction between flexible-price equilibrium models and models with nominal contracts is emphasized and three models of the latter type are described and contrasted, it is argued that rejection of flexible-price equilibrium theories, as the evidence seems to warrant,does not require abandonment of the equilibrium approach. Also included are remarks on the present status of the rational expectations version of the natural-rate hypothesis. The second section of the paper briefly discusses a few issues concerning the equilibrium approach and aggregate demand, with attention devoted to the overlapping-generations framework. The third section considers a recent attempt, involving the use of "vector autoregression"models, to denigrate the importance of the Lucas critique of traditional policy-evaluation procedures.
Recent Developments in Monetary Policy Analysis
Both academic thinking about monetary economics and the practice of monetary policy have changed dramatically since 1971-1973, when the rational expectations revolution was beginning and the Bretton Woods system was crumbling. The present paper considers whether the various changes that have taken place were influenced primarily by economic theory or by empirical evidence-or by a combination of the two. Monetary economics, like macroeconomics more generally, passed through the rational expectations period into one dominated by real business cycle (RBC) analysis, which denies monetary policy any significant role in the generation or the dampening of cyclical fluctuations in crucial real varia...
The Role of Overlapping-generations Models in Monetary Economics
The main arguments of this paper can be summarized as follows. (1) The overlapping-generations (OG) structure provides a useful framework for the analysis of macroeconomic issues involving intertemporal allocation. (2) As a "model of money," the basic OG setup -- which excludes cash-in-advance or money-in-the-utility-function (MIUF) features -- is inadequate and misleading because it neglects the medium-of-exchange property that is the distinguishing characteristic of money. (3) That this neglect obtains is verified by noting that, in contrast with an axiomatic "traditional presumption," the same aggregate leisure/consumption bundles are available in equilibria in which "money" is valued and valueless. (4) That the model may be misleading is demonstrated by examples in which three of its most striking properties --tenuousness of monetary equilibrium, optimality of zero money growth, and price level invariance to open-market exchanges -- disappear in the presence of modifications designed to reflect the medium-of-exchange property. (5) There is no compelling reason why cash-in-advance, MIUF, or other appendages should not be used in conjunction with the OG framework
Monetary Policy for an Open Economy
The new open-economy macroeconomics' seeks to provide an improved basis for monetary and exchange-rate policy through the construction of open-economy models that feature rational expectations, optimizing agents, and slowly adjusting prices of goods. This paper promotes an alternative approach for constructing such models by treating imports not as finished consumer goods but rather as raw-material inputs to the home economy's productive process. This treatment leads to a clean and simple theoretical structure that has some empirical attractions as well. A particular small-economy model is calibrated and its properties exhibited, primarily by means of impulse response functions. The preferred variant is shown to feature a pattern of correlations between exchange-rate changes and inflation that is more realistic than provided by a more standard specification. Important recent events are interpreted in light of the alternative models.
