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Hierarchy and Authority in a Dynamic Perspective
This paper presents a dynamic game of strategic delegation between a principal and an agent. The principal can choose between two organizational designs: a traditional hierarchy where she retains authority over the choice of projects to be implemented or a delegation where she allows her agent to select the project. The key objectives of this model are to identify the long-run determinants of the principal’s choice and verify the impact of the authority allocation on the agent’s effort levels and on the principal’s payoffs. We apply the model to the relationships between institutional donors and nongovernmental organizations.
The Nexus of Climate and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Middle East and Central Asia
This paper investigates the effects of climate shocks on inflation and monetary policy in the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA) region. We first introduce a theoretical model to understand the impact of climate risks on headline and food inflation. In particular, the model shows how climate shocks could affect the path of policy rates through food prices. We then use local projections to estimate the impact of climate shocks on headline and food inflation. The results show that price stability is more easily achievable under positive climate conditions. Overall, our findings shed new light on the importance of considering climate-related supply shocks when designing monetary policy, particularly in countries where food makes up a significant part of the CPI-basket.
Financial Inclusion and Development in the CEMAC
This paper examines financial inclusion and development in the CEMAC. We explore the level of financial inclusion in the CEMAC through a benchmarking exercise.We construct a measure of financial development gap and analyze its determinants. Using panel data regressions, we find that inflation, income, and natural resources explain most of the financial development level but that better financial sector governance and stronger economic governance are positively associated with financial sector development. Richer and poorer countries can be equally far from their expected financial development levels. Finally, we use a benchmarking exercise to identify countries that have successfully reduced the financial development gap and propose policy measures that CEMAC countries could use to boost financial inclusion.
Tax Avoidance in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Mining Sector
This paper aims to contribute to the international policy debate around profit shifting, tax avoidance and SSA’s revenue mobilization efforts in three ways. First, it examines the importance of mining, the role of multinational enterprises (MNEs), and mining revenue outcomes in SSA. Second, it assesses the magnitude of profit shifting in mining drawing on new macro level research, supplemented by case studies to illustrate the lived experience of tax avoidance in SSA mining. Third, the paper identifies tax policy reforms that could boost revenue mobilization in SSA.
Does Foreign Aid Reduce Poverty? Empirical Evidence from Nongovernmental and Bilateral Aid
This paper assesses the effectiveness of foreign aid in reducing poverty through its impact on human development indicators. We use a dataset of both bilateral aid and NGO aid flows. Our results show that NGO aid reduces infant mortality and does so more effectively than official bilateral aid. The impact on illiteracy is less significant. We also test whether foreign aid reduces government efforts in achieving developmental goals and find mixed evidence of a substitution effect.
Does NGO Aid Go to the Poor? Empirical Evidence from Europe
This paper studies the aid allocation of European nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Once population is controlled for, poverty consistently appears as the main worldwide determinant of NGO aid allocation. NGOs do not respond to strategic considerations. Their funding source does not seem to exert a great influence on their aid allocation decision. We also find differences across regions. Militarization and the political nature of the regime of the recipient country affect aid allocation in the Middle East. Life expectancy influences aid allocation in countries in the Western Hemisphere and the Middle East.
Mali
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Mali’s economic recovery continued in 2017 amid persistent security challenges. GDP growth remained robust, at an estimated 5.3 percent supported by good harvests and robust domestic demand. Inflation was subdued, remaining well below the regional ceiling. The 2017 fiscal outturn and the 2018 budget are in line with the program targets and the goal of converging to the West African Economic and Monetary Union’s regional fiscal deficit norm of 3 percent of GDP by 2019. The macroeconomic outlook is, however, subject to downside risks stemming mainly from Mali’s fragile security situation.
Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States
Setting macroeconomic policy is especially difficult in fragile states. Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States addresses the many issues involved and considers ways to improve the effectiveness of macroeconomic management in the face of these constraints.
Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks
As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.
Post-Stabilization Economics in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mozambique is an economic success story in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Its remarkable achievements offer valuable lessons to other low-income countries in a post-stabilization economic phase, including how they can efficiently manage a scaling up of foreign aid aimed at poverty reduction. Of special interest to other sub-Saharan countries are the book's discussions of Mozambique's progress toward consolidating macroeconomic and financial stability, and the challenges it faces in ensuring long-term sustainability, creating a virtuous cycle of natural resource use, and implementing second-generation structural reforms to sustain its growth. This book also provides a summary of the most recent research on issues related to post-stabilization economics in SSA.
