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COVID-19 and extreme weather: Impacts on food security and migration attitudes in rural Guatemala
This paper examines the continuing effects of COVID-19 and exposure to weather extremes on income, dietary, and migration outcomes in rural Guatemala. We rely on a comprehensive longitudinal survey of 1,612 smallholder farmers collected over three survey rounds in 2019, 2020, and 2021. We find improvements in incomes, food security, and dietary diversity in 2021 relative to 2020, but with levels still below pre-pandemic ones in 2019. We also find a substantial increase in the intention to emigrate that was not observed in the onset of the pandemic. In terms of the channels mediating the variations in dietary diversity and migration intentions, income shocks seem to have played a role, in con...
Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on the coffee value chain in Guatemala: Evidence from coffee growers in the Midwest and East
Coffee is a growth market. Current estimates indicate that global coffee production (in volume) has increased by more than 60% since the 1990s. Coffee is produced by around 25 million farmers, which are mainly smallholders in developing and least developed countries, and over 70% of the coffee produced is exported, resulting in about 20 billion US dollars annual foreign exchange earnings (ICO, 2020). COVID-19 represented a severe joint supply and demand shock to the global coffee sector, particularly during the first months after the start of the pandemic. As noted by Hernandez et al. (2020), the coffee industry experienced important disruptions downstream the value chain, including the functioning of key export infrastructure and international shipping, which combined with local currency devaluations and volatile coffee prices, which resulted in significant challenges for coffee growers, farm workers, and traders.
COVID-19 study in rural areas of Guatemala: Long-term impacts on food security and nutrition in the Western Highlands
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, Guatemalan farmers have endured multiple challenges brough about by national and local restrictions to movement as well as disruptions in agricultural value chains. Similarly, farmers have been exposed to several external shocks such as ETA and IOTA tropical storms that hit the country in late 2020 and the recent conflict in East Europe and price crisis. This study examines the long-term effects of the COVID-19 environment on the food security and nutrition of rural households in the Western Highlands of Guatemala. The analysis is based on information from a panel of 1,262 smallholder households in the departments of Huehuetenango, Quiche, and Sa...
The migration propensity index: An application to Guatemala
International migration has grown rapidly over the past two decades, at an annual rate of 2.4%, prompting increased interest in identifying the root causes of outmigration and the population groups more likely to emigrate. However, anticipating migration is a complex task, as the decision to migrate is often determined by multiple push and pull factors that are typically interrelated and are not always directly observable. This study proposes the Migration Propensity Index (MPI), a novel approach to indirectly estimate a household’s propensity or probability to emigrate. The central idea is to identify and keep track of a reduced set of household-level indicators that are strongly correlat...
COVID-19 and livelihoods in rural Guatemala: Lessons from a long term assessment and the path to recovery
The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound effects on livelihoods and food security across rural populations worldwide. This study offers a long-term assessment of the impacts of the pandemic and the path to recovery among smallholder agricultural households in the Western Highlands of Guatemala. We rely on a unique longitudinal survey of 1,262 households collected over four survey rounds between 2019 and 2022. The results show substantial recoveries in incomes, food security, and dietary diversity in the region by mid-2022 compared to 2020, but at levels still worse than pre pandemic ones. There is also a sustained increase in the intention to emigrate. The households that were initially more a...
Estudio sobre el COVID-19 en el área rural de Guatemala: Efectos de largo plazo sobre la seguridad alimentaria y nutricional de los hogares en el Altiplano Occidental
Desde el inicio de la pandemia del COVID-19, los productores agrícolas de Guatemala han afrontado múltiples restricciones de movimiento tanto locales como nacionales, así como también disrupciones en las cadenas de valor agrícolas. Asimismo, los productores han estado expuestos a varios choques externos como las tormentas tropicales de ETA e IOTA hacia finales de 2020 y el reciente conflicto bélico en Europa del Este y crisis de precios. Este estudio examina los efectos a largo plazo de la coyuntura del COVID-19 sobre la seguridad alimentaria y nutricional de hogares rurales en el Altiplano Occidental de Guatemala. El análisis se basa en información de un panel de 1,262 hogares de pe...
COVID-19 and global food security: Two years later
Two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the health, economic, and social disruptions caused by this global crisis continue to evolve. The impacts of the pandemic are likely to endure for years to come, with poor, marginalized, and vulnerable groups the most affected. In COVID-19 & Global Food Security: Two Years Later, the editors bring together contributions from new IFPRI research, blogs, and the CGIAR COVID-19 Hub to examine the pandemic’s effects on poverty, food security, nutrition, and health around the world. This volume presents key lessons learned on food security and food system resilience in 2020 and 2021 and assesses the effectiveness of policy responses to the crisis. Looking forward, the authors consider how the pandemic experience can inform both recovery and longer-term efforts to build more resilient food systems.
Food and nutrition security in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia during COVID-19 pandemic: June 2020 report
In early June 2020, we called by telephone a representative sample of nearly 600 households in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia to assess income changes and household food and nutrition security status during the COVID-19 pandemic (survey period covering May). This was the second administration of a COVID-19 related survey to these households, following an initial survey conducted in early May 2020 covering the situation of the survey households in April. More than two-third of the households indicated in the second survey that their incomes were lower than expected (up from 58 percent in April) and 45 percent reported that they are extremely stressed about the situation (up from 35 percent in April). ...
2021 Global food policy report: Transforming food systems after COVID-19: Synopsis
The coronavirus pandemic has upended local, national, and global food systems, and put the Sustainable Development Goals further out of reach. But lessons from the world’s response to the pandemic can help address future shocks and contribute to food system change. In the 2021 Global Food Policy Report, IFPRI researchers and other food policy experts explore the impacts of the pandemic and government policy responses, particularly for the poor and disadvantaged, and consider what this means for transforming our food systems to be healthy, resilient, efficient, sustainable, and inclusive. Chapters in the report look at balancing health and economic policies, promoting healthy diets and nutr...
