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Regime-Switching Factor Models and Nowcasting with Big Data
This paper shows that the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for regime-switching dynamic factor models provides satisfactory performance relative to other estimation methods and delivers a good trade-off between accuracy and speed, which makes it especially useful for large dimensional data. Unlike traditional numerical maximization approaches, this methodology benefits from closed-form solutions for parameter estimation, enhancing its practicality for real-time applications and historical data exercises with focus on frequent updates. In a nowcasting application to vintage US data, I study the information content and relative performance of regime-switching model after each data relea...
Data Science for Economics and Finance
This open access book covers the use of data science, including advanced machine learning, big data analytics, Semantic Web technologies, natural language processing, social media analysis, time series analysis, among others, for applications in economics and finance. In addition, it shows some successful applications of advanced data science solutions used to extract new knowledge from data in order to improve economic forecasting models. The book starts with an introduction on the use of data science technologies in economics and finance and is followed by thirteen chapters showing success stories of the application of specific data science methodologies, touching on particular topics rela...
Inflation and Output Comovement in the Euro Area
This paper discusses comovement between inflation and output in the euro area. The strength of the comovement may not be apparent at first sight, but is clear at business cycle frequencies. Our results suggest that at business cycle frequency, the output and core inflation comovement is high and stable, and that inflation lags the cycle in output with roughly half of its variance. The strong relationship of output and inflation hints at the importance of demand shocks for the euro area business cycle.
TURKISH POLICY QUARTERLY - VOL. 19 - NO. 4 - WINTER 2020/21
As part of a new series of debates we hope to ignite on the evolving world order, TPQ’s Winter 2020/21 edition explores the question of how the US’s changing role amid ongoing tensions with global powers will shape the upcoming decade. Topics such as the Trump administration’s domestic and foreign policy decisions and its reflections on the global stage, as well as where post-9/11 American cultural values and principles stand today are discussed. This unique edition marks the first of discussions that we look forward to stimulating across our platform on where the US—and the liberal international order—is headed. Headlining this special issue, James Franklin Jeffrey, Chair of the M...
The Central Bank as Crisis Manager
The world’s central banks have confronted crisis after crisis in recent years—both before and since the global financial crisis. Yet many of these events seem to take central banks by surprise, obliging them to improvise. In this important study, Patrick Honohan, former governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, calls on central banks to make preparation for crisis management a core activity. They should be ready to deal with the unexpected. Departing from the rather sedate mode of operation appropriate to their normal focus on price stability and risk control, they must speed up their decision making, change their style of communication, and be more open to cooperation with governments when a crisis hits. They need to keep careful track of changing financial market practices, evaluating solvency in murky situations and quickly weighing the tradeoffs involved in measures that can help contain the crisis but have adverse side-effects. The Central Bank as Crisis Manager warns that failure to recognize these challenges could be costly for society.
권력의 원리
권력이 무엇인지, 권력은 어떻게 얻고 잃는지, 또한 어떻게 해야 권력을 선을 위해 사용할 수 있는지에 대한 주목할 만한 통찰이 담긴 책. _애덤 그랜트, 《싱크 어게인》, 《오리지널스》 저자 더 좋은 세상을 만들기 위해서 권력과 힘을 제대로 이해해야 한다 권력을 선하게 행사할 수 있는 방법론을 제시하는 중요한 안내서! 권력과 힘은 대인관계에서부터 직장에서의 논쟁, 국제 외교, 기업 비즈니스에 이르기까지 세상 모든 곳에 항상 존재하고 있다. 권력과 힘은 본질적으로 다른 사람에게 영향을 미치는 능력이다. 많은 사람...
Applied Mathematics, Modeling and Computer Simulation
The pervasiveness of computers in every field of science, industry and everyday life has meant that applied mathematics, particularly in relation to modeling and simulation, has become ever more important in recent years. This book presents the proceedings of the 2021 International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modeling and Computer Simulation (AMMCS 2021), hosted in Wuhan, China, and held as a virtual event from 13 to 14 November 2021. The aim of the conference is to foster the knowledge and understanding of recent advances across the broad fields of applied mathematics, modeling and computer simulation, and it provides an annual platform for scholars and researchers to communicate imp...
Growth for Good
The current model of economic expansion driven by fossil fuels is unsustainable, leading many to toy with the idea of ditching growth to save the planet. But, as Alessio Terzi argues, a post-growth world would be prone to catastrophes no less serious than climate change itself. Luckily, with the right policies, growth can be made earth-friendly.
