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A Mythological Approach to Exploring the Origins of Chinese Civilization
Is the lion the symbol of China? Or should it be the dragon or the phoenix? This book makes a provocative interpretation of the Chinese ancient totems such as the bear and the owl. Taking a mythological approach, it explores the origin of Chinese civilization using the quadruple evidence method, which integrates ancient and unearthed literature, oral transmission, and archeological objects and graphs. It testifies to the authenticity of unresolved ancient myths and legends from the origins of Chinese Jade Ware (6200BC-5400 BC) to the names of the Yellow Emperor (2698–2598 BC) and the legends from the Xia (2010BC-1600BC), Shang (1600BC-046BC), Zhou (1046BC-771BC), and Qin (221BC-206BC) Dynasties. The book lays the foundation for a reconstruction of Chinese Mythistory. With well over 200 photographs of historic artifacts, the book appeals to both researchers and general readers.
Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth
In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries’ predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Speci?cally, we model non-parametrically the contemporaneous interdependencies across the United States, the euro area, and China via a conditional kernel density estimation of a joint distribution. Then, we characterize the potential ampli?cation e?ects stemming from other large economies in each region—also with kernel density estimations—and the reaction of all other economies with para-metric assumptions. Importantly, each economy’s predictive density also depends on a set of observable country-speci?c factors. Finally, the use of sampling techniques allows us to aggregate individual countries’ densities into a world aggregate while preserving the non-i.i.d. nature of the global GDP growth distribution. Out-of-sample metrics con?rm the accuracy of our approach.
Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance
The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.
Colonial Tactics and Everyday Life
Following the Japanese invasion of northeast China in 1931, the occupying authorities established the Manchuria Film Association to promote film production efficiency and serve Japan’s propaganda needs. Manchuria Film Association had two tasks: to make “national policy films” as part of a cultural mission of educating Chinese in Manchukuo (the puppet state created in 1932) on the special relationship between Japan and the region, and to block the exhibition of Chinese films from Shanghai that contained anti-Japanese messages. The corporation relied on Japanese capital, technology, and film expertise, but it also employed many Chinese filmmakers. After the withdrawal of Japanese forces ...
Tunguso Sibirica
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Mathematical Geology and Geoinformatics
This book presents the proceedings of the 30th International Geological Congress, providing information on geological hazards map and image analytical systems, mineral resources with integrated information, phase-separation analysis, mineral reserve estimation, and geosciences and management information systems.
