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Monetary Policy and Public Finances
This paper considers the interaction between the private sector, the monetary authority, and the fiscal authority, and concludes that unrestricted central bank independence may not be an optimal way to collect seigniorage revenues or stabilize supply shocks. Moreover, the paper shows that the implementation of an optimal inflation target results in optimal shares of government finances—seigniorage, taxes, and the spending shortfall—from society’s point of view but still involves suboptimal stabilization. Even if price stability is the sole central bank objective, a positive inflation target has important implications for the government’s finances, as well as for stabilization.
Capital Markets and Financial Intermediation in The Baltics
In just over a decade after independence, the three Baltic countries, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, have transformed themselves into fully functioning, small open-market economies that will be joining the European Union. Capital Markets and Financial Intermediation in The Baltics analyzes the financial systems of the three countries and discusses some of their unique characteristics. The study also examines current distortions of the systems and discusses whether or not the Baltics should move from an almost exclusively bank-based system to one that relies more on capital markets. In the process, it addresses issues of corporate governance and regional integration.
IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 3
This paper examines determinants and leading indicators of banking crises. The paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be associated more with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.
The Euro and Economic Stability
The Euro and Economic Stability assesses the euro area's merits as a shelter and the merits of euro assets as a safe haven and reviews the case for rapid euro adoption from a post-crisis view. Policymakers and economists provide relevant lessons from euro area divergences for future euro area members and, more generally, from the financial crisis, while banking representatives discuss post-crisis business models of banks in the area. Last but not least, a theoretical introductory chapter fills the gap between mainstream macroeconomic modelling and real-world decision-making. The prime audience for this invaluable book will be economists and other experts in the fields of economic policy and European integration from central, commercial and investment banks, governments, international organizations, universities and research institutes. The book is also aimed at readers with a particular interest in the contributions' special regional focus: Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe.
IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 2
This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. The study suggests, though, that although forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crises, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited.
Coping with the Global Financial Crisis
This forthcoming title in the Departmental Paper Series describes the special challenges facing low-income countries as economic growth contracts by an estimated 1.1 percent globally. Coping with the Crisis: Challenges Facing Low-Income Countries provides an assessment of the implications of the financial crisis for low-income countries, evaluates the short-term macroeconomic outlook for these countries, and discusses the policy challenges they face. Chapters cover the outlook for global economic growth and commodity prices, an overview of how low-income countries have been affected, fiscal policy, monetary and exchange rate policy responses, potential external financing needs and how the international community, including the IMF, can help countries meet them. The challenges ahead for low-income countries are delineated, including debt vulnerabilities and the need for countries to develop well-regulated local capital markets and banking systems, as well as enhanced public sector efficiency.
Growth and Poverty Reduction in Armenia
Since 2000, Armenia's economic performance has been remarkable. Real economic growth has averaged 11 percent a year, annual inflation has averaged 3 percent, and poverty and inequality have fallen. The country has outperformed other low-income countries including other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. This is particularly impressive given the geographical location of Armenia, the closure of two critical borders, and occasional political turmoil. The key factors behind Armenia's economic performance are prudent monetary and fiscal policies, liberal trade and foreign exchange regimes, rapid and relaively well-sequenced structural reforms, and support from the Armenian diaspora. In addition, the implementation of a poverty reduction strategy since 2002 has complemented the effect of economic growth on reducing poverty. This book assesses the country's economic transformation during the last 10 years and discusses the challenges to sustaining these successes.
Investment, Capital Accumulation, and Growth
This paper considers the potential variables that have determined economic growth in The Gambia during 1964–98. The results indicate that The Gambia’s aggregate production function exhibits increasing returns to scale, thus supporting the endogenous growth-type model. The impact of private investment—and thus private capital accumulation—on output is large and significant. Furthermore, increases in public investment boost output substantially. Finally, the effects associated with human capital accumulation are positive and statistically significant. The paper also estimates a series on total factor productivity growth that indicates that The Gambia was able to use its resources more efficiently.
Finance India
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Historical Dictionary of The Gambia
When The Gambia achieved its independence from Great Britain on 18 February 1965, as mainland Africa’s smallest state, its future seemed uncertain. It retained this status for nearly 30 years, An attempted coup d’état in July 1981 was put down, but, ironically, when other African states were returning to democratic government, Gambian democracy finally succumbed to a military coup on 22 July 1994. While civilian rule was restored in 1996, full democracy was not and a number of subsequent presidential and parliamentary elections have been far from free and fair, while The Gambia’s human rights record has been very poor since 1994. This fifth edition of Historical Dictionary of The Gambia contains a chronology, an introduction, and an extensive bibliography. The dictionary section has over 700 cross-referenced entries on important personalities, politics, economy, foreign relations, religion, and culture. This book is an excellent access point for students, researchers, and anyone wanting to know more about The Gambia.
