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The Economics of Planetary Security
In the face of a rapidly-changing geopolitical landscape, contemporary perspectives on security have drastically changed in reaction to new conflict factors that have arisen out of, and are related to, unpredictable patterns of climate change. Already, in both the short and long term future, it is increasingly likely that conflict will result from a multitude of such stress factors. Environmental stress, stress caused by climate change in particular, is only one of these factors. Nonetheless, in light of its diverse and multiplier impacts, it remains an important one. This report, intended for policy makers and business professionals, examines the economic aspects of the relatively under-exp...
The increasing threat of biological weapons
With the World Health Organization (WHO), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the U.S. Blue Ribbon panel publishing reports on the emerging risks of biological weaponry in past months, there is a new sense of urgency regarding biological weapons. In August 2016, the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon told the Security Council that “non-state actors are actively seeking chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons.” This report presents the changing dynamics of the development and use of biological weapons and the preparation against them. The dynamics relate to technological advances in biotechnology and the concomitant attraction to non-state actors to use biologic...
The Geopolitical Impact of Climate Mitigation Policies
At the Paris Climate Conference held in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the Paris Agreement – the first universal, legally binding global climate deal. The signatory parties committed themselves to a global action plan that aims to keep global warming to well below 2°C and to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C. As part of our Geo-Economics research initiative, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies has investigated the geopolitical consequences of climate mitigation and energy transition among a number of countries richly endowed in hydrocarbons who potentially stand to lose a significant part of their revenue stream as a result of demand changes for fossil fuels. If dem...
The Origins of Victory
How the character of war is changing and how militaries can successfully adapt to meet the challenge This book by military strategist Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr., is the definitive take on the race for military dominance in the twenty-first century. It shows how militaries that successfully pursue disruptive innovation can gain a major advantage over their rivals, while those that fail to do so risk exposing their countries to great danger. The Precision Warfare Revolution introduced by the U.S. military in the First Gulf War found the United States enjoying a near monopoly in this form of warfare for several decades. But now other powers have these capabilities. The U.S. military also confro...
The Economics of Planetary Security
Planetary security refers to the role of the environment in geopolitical risks and conflicts. As a relatively underexplored concept, this report, intended for policy makers and business professionals, examines the economic aspects of planetary security and, in particular, the vulnerabilities and resilience of countries to environmentally induced conflict. It first discusses the concept of planetary security and the role of economics therein, and then builds a quantitative framework and monitor capturing the vulnerabilities and resilience of different countries. The report distinguishes between direct economic effects of climate change on countries, unintended economic effects of climate change policies and effects of climate change on business and financial sectors. While the first two elements are captured in the monitor and quantitative framework, the third element-- the effects of climate change on business and financial sectors -- could not yet be modelled in the monitor. This report therefore discusses the links between the economics of climate change and international conflict risk, which are brought together under the title 'economics of planetary security.'
Military Weapons and Environment
Armed conflicts have become more complicated, with the emphasis shifting towards new weapons such as drones, cybercrime and autonomous weapons. In July 2017, the UN General Assembly adopted the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. This treaty prohibits a full range of nuclear-weapon-related activities, such as undertaking to develop, test, produce, manufacture, acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices, as well as the use or threat of use of these weapons. The ongoing conflicts have shown that the consequences of the use of explosive weapons are not limited to death, physical injury and disability, but also include long-term impacts on mental w...
Captive Universe
The valley was isolated in time and space, a land of barbarous science and human sacrifice. Coatlice the Dreadful stalked the night, her twin serpent heads dealing death to taboo-breakers. Citallatonac the First Priest sacrificed anyone believed to be possessed by the gods. Chimal rebelled: he wanted to escape the atavistic confines of his lost civilisation, to venture into the unknown world beyond the valley, a world of hope, and nightmare, too.
