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Public Debt and Real GDP: Revisiting the Impact
This paper provides new empirical evidence of the impact of an unanticipated change in public debt on real GDP. Using public debt forecast errors, we identify exogenous changes in public debt to assess the impact of a change in the debt to GDP ratio on real GDP. By analyzing data on gross public debt for 178 countries over 1995-2020, we find that the impact of an unanticipated increase in public debt on the real GDP level is generally negative and varies depending on other fundamental characteristics. Specifically, an unanticipated increase in the public debt to GDP ratio hurts real GDP level for countries that have (i) a high initial debt level or (ii) a rising debt trajectory over the five preceding years. On the contrary, an unanticipated increase in public debt boosts real GDP for countries that have (iii) a low-income level or (iv) completed the HIPC debt relief initiative.
Debt Build-up in Frontier Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) since 2012: Global or Country-specific Factors and Way Forward?
This paper focuses on the debt build-up that frontier low-income developing countries (LIDCs) have faced since 2012. First, it documents a 20-percentage point increase in the external and government debt-to-GDP ratios, a composition shift toward higher non-concessional debt, and a rise in interest rate payments. Second, using panel regressions, it shows that while both global and country-specific factors are correlated with debt-to-GDP ratios over 1998–2016, global factors dominate for the period 2012–16. Third, through a small open-economy model, it shows that the projected tightening in global financial conditions would reduce debt-to-GDP ratios by less than the increase associated with the expected rise in investment.
Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance
This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism for public and external debt projections, which was most appreciable for LICs with the highest incomes, prospects for market access, and at ‘moderate’ risk of debt distress. This was often driven by overly-ambitious fiscal and/or growth forecasts, and projected ‘residuals’. When we control for unanticipated shocks, we find that biases remain evident, driven in part by optimism regarding government fiscal reaction functions and expected growth dividends from investment.
Lebanon
This Selected Issues paper studies the inefficiencies related to the electricity sector and assesses the potential impact of the 2019 reform plan. Electricity shortages are the second constraint to competitiveness reported by businesses in Lebanon, based on the Enterprise Survey conducted by the World Bank. Lebanon’s electricity sector performance is worse than other similar countries in the region. Many businesses must rely on costly private generators. Income inequalities are exacerbated by both the geographical disparities in Electricité du Liban’s (EdL) electricity provision and its tariff structure. The most vulnerable households are the small consumers located in regions with litt...
Rollback of Credit Arrangements in the New Arrangements to Borrow
This paper presents a proposal for aggregate reduction of the New Arrangements to Borrow (NAB) by 16.8 percent (SDR 61.3 billion), while broadly preserving relative shares of NAB participants, in line with guidance by the BoG Resolution No. 79-1 on the Sixteenth General Review of Quotas (adopted on December 15, 2023). The objective is to maintain the Fund’s lending capacity as a result of the proposed 50 percent quota increases, conditional on a reduction (“rollback”) in the NAB credit arrangements and taking into account also the expiration of the 2020 Bilateral Borrowing Agreements. Changes in NAB credit arrangements require high levels of support from NAB participants. A safeguard mechanism allows the rollback to become effective provided that participants representing at least 90 percent of credit arrangements have consented to this proposal. The effectiveness of the rollback of NAB credit arrangements would be tied to the effectiveness of the quota increases under the Sixteenth General Review of Quotas.
Republic of Madagascar
Real GDP growth stalled at 3.8 percent in 2023, dampened by the deterioration of global economic prospects and the negative effect of electoral uncertainty on investment. After peaking in March 2023, inflationary pressures have eased. Led by a new presidential mandate, the authorities are requesting a cancellation of the current Extended Credit Facility (ECF) that ends in July 2024, and new ECF and Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangements. Cumulative disbursements under the current ECF reached SDR 171.08 million (70 percent of quota, about 78 percent of the total approved amount).
Review of the Method of Valuation of the SDR
This paper provides the basis for the quinquennial review by the Executive Board of the method of valuation of the Special Drawing Right (SDR). The review covers the composition and weighting of the SDR currency basket, and the financial instruments used to determine the SDR interest rate. In the five-year period for this review (2017‒21), developments in key variables relevant for the SDR valuation suggest that there have been no major changes in the roles of currencies in the world economy. The countries and the currency union (euro area) whose currencies are currently included in the SDR basket remain the five largest exporters and their currencies continue to account for the majority o...
Update on the Financing of the Fund's Concessional Assistance and Debt Relief to Low-Income Countries
"The Fund is adapting its framework for providing support to low-income countries (LICs) amid rising vulnerabilities. Despite a global economic upswing, many LICs continue to face difficult fiscal and external positions, aggravated by increasing debt levels and natural disasters in many countries. In this context, the Executive Board approved in May 2017 higher annual access limits under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) for balance of payment needs arising from large natural disasters and in May 2017 decided to keep the list of Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT)-eligible countries unchanged notwithstanding rising per capita income levels. A comprehensive review of PRGT facilities is un...
2018 Review of Program Design and Conditionality
The 2018 Review of Program Design and Conditionality is the first comprehensive stocktaking of Fund lending operations since the global financial crisis. The review assesses program performance between September 2011 and end-2017. Programs during this period were defined by the protracted structural challenges faced by members and hampered by the persistently weak global environment.
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Middle East and Central Asia
Growth in the near term remains subdued for oil exporters in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region, amid volatile oil prices, precarious global growth, elevated fiscal vulnerabilities, and heightened geopolitical tensions. In addition, declining productivity is dampening medium-term growth prospects. To reduce dependence on oil prices and pave the way for more sustainable growth, fiscal consolidation needs to resume, underpinned by improved medium-term fiscal frameworks. In parallel, structural reforms and further financial sector development would boost foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic private investment and foster diversification, thus contributing to improved productivity and potential growth.
