Welcome to our book review site go-pdf.online!
You may have to Search all our reviewed books and magazines, click the sign up button below to create a free account.
What Comes Next?
The Covid crisis prompted an unprecedented global economic contraction. Although the worst is likely behind us, the recovery is likely to be uneven, with economic activity in many customer-facing service industries set to remain constrained for some time. I use a quantitative multi-industry model to estimate the economic forces that explain the decline in economic activity in the United States, the Euro Area, Japan and China in the first half of 2020. I then use the model to project the trajectory of the economic recovery. I find that the US, EA and Japan will each face a "98% economy" if half of the constraints faced by customer-facing service industries in the first half of 2020 persist. The economic recovery in China is projected to occur more quickly.
MARTIN Has Its Place
None
A State-space Approach to Australian GDP Measurement
"We use state-space methods to construct new estimates of Australian gross domestic product (GDP) growth from the published national accounts estimates of expenditure, income and production. Across a range of specifications, our measures are substantially less volatile than headline GDP growth. We conclude that much of the quarter-to-quarter volatility in Australian GDP growth reflects measurement error rather than true shifts in the level of economic activity."--Page i.
The Natural Interest Rate in China
"The authors estimate the natural interest rate in China. The natural interest rate averaged between 3 and 5 per cent between the late 1990s and 2010, but declined over the next decade to around 2 per cent. They attribute around two-thirds of the decline in China's natural interest rate to a lower rate of potential output growth. As the decline in the natural interest rate in China mirrors that observed in many other economies, it is possible that global factors explain part of the decline in the natural rate not explained by lower growth."--Abstract.
International Spillovers of Forward Guidance Shocks
After 2007, countries that cut their policy interest rates close to zero turned, among other policies, to forward guidance. We estimate a two-country model of the U.S. and Canada to quantify how unexpected changes in U.S. forward guidance affected Canada. Expansionary U.S. forward guidance shocks, like conventional policy shocks, are beggar-thy-neighbor and depress Canadian output, but by twice as much as conventional shocks. We find that the effect of U.S. forward guidance shocks on Canadian output, unlike conventional policy shocks, depends on the state of U.S. demand and can be five times smaller when U.S. demand is weak.
