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Public Works as a Safety Net
A review of the conceptual underpinnings and operational elements of public works programs around the world., drawing from a rich evidence base and analyzing previously unassimilated data, to fill a gap in knowledge related to public works programs, now so popular.
Can a light-touch graduation model enhance livelihood outcomes? Evidence from Ethiopia
In recent years, a growing literature has examined the potential of multifaceted, intensive “graduation model” interventions that simultaneously address multiple barriers constraining households’ exit from poverty. In this paper, we present new evidence from a randomized trial of a lighter-touch graduation model implemented in rural Ethiopia. The primary experimental arms are a bundled intervention including a productive transfer valued at $374 (randomly assigned to be cash or an equivalent value in poultry), training, and savings groups; a simpler intervention including training and savings groups only; and a control arm. We find that three years post-baseline, the intervention inclusive of the transfer leads to some increases in assets, savings, and cash income from livestock, though there is no shift in consumption or household food security; these effects are consistent regardless of the modality of the transfer (cash versus poultry). The effects of training and savings groups alone are minimal.
Implementer-Led Evaluation and Learning (IMPEL) evaluation of SPIR II RFSA - Midline survey report
The objective of this report is to present results from the midline survey conducted as part of the IMPEL evaluation of SPIR-II, a randomized controlled trial launched in 2022. The second phase of the Strengthen PSNP Institutions and Resilience (SPIR-II) project aims to enhance livelihoods, increase resilience to shocks, and improve food security and nutrition for rural households vulnerable to food insecurity in Ethiopia. The project is situated within Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), one of the largest safety net programs in Africa. Funded by USAID’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA), SPIR-II is implemented by World Vision International (lead), CARE, and ORDA in ...
Impact of Soaring Food Price in Ethiopia: Does Location Matter?
"Previous studies implicitly assume uniform price-effects across regions or provinces within countries. They also do not address the issue of integration between the world food market and local markets. Instead, they assume a complete transmission of changes in world food prices to local food prices. In this paper, we first establish evidence of regional price heterogeneity across Ethiopia. We also applied the Johansen test for market integration over 95 local maize markets and found that none of the Ethiopian regional markets for maize is integrated to the world market. However, there is significant short-term price effects between the world maize market and some Ethiopian regional markets. Using the Almost Ideal Demand System, we estimate loss in household consumption and calorie intake as induced by food price increases. The results suggest a great deal of heterogeneity across regions as well as between rural and urban areas. Studies that fail to account for the characteristics of household demand across locations are more likely to induce misleading policy recommendations."--Authors' abstract.
Aggregate Effects of Imperfect Tax Enforcement
"This paper studies an economy in which the government is not able to perfectly enforce tax compliance among operating firms, and compares it with a similar economy but with perfect tax enforcement. I develop a competitive general equilibrium model where imperfect tax enforcement may affect aggregate outcomes through two mechanisms. First, it may distort firms' optimal output level as long as the probability of avoiding tax compliance is related to the firm's size. Second, poor tax enforcement may lead to a low provision of the public goods that complement firms' productivity. The results for a calibrated version of the model suggest that in economies with tax enforcement problems, aggregate output might be reduced by 12 percent. I also conclude that sizable aggregate effects can be obtained only when the public goods mechanism is at work."--Authors' abstract.
