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Namibia
This Selected Issues paper examines macro-financial risks associated with housing boom in Namibia. Namibia has enjoyed stable and steady progress in financial sector developments, but vulnerabilities might have built up. The recent evolution of Namibia’s housing prices raises a question as to whether the prices reflect economic fundamentals. Overall, estimates based on cross-country evidence of countries that experienced a boom-bust episode in the housing sector suggest that Namibia’s real economic growth could be 3 to 27 percentage points lower than under the baseline scenario over a three-year period. Under the most adverse scenario, in particular, GDP is expected to contract 9.9 percent in real terms over the three-year projection period.
A Generalized Framework for the Assessment of Household Financial Vulnerability
Household financial fragility has received considerable attention following the global financial crisis, but substantial gaps remain in the analytical underpinnings of household financial vulnerability assessment, as well as in data availability. This paper aims at integrating the contributions in the literature in a coherent fashion. The study proposes also analytical and estimation extensions aimed at improving the quality of estimates and allowing the assessment of household financial vulnerability in presence of data limitations. The result of this effort is a comprehensive framework, that has wide applicability to both advanced and developing economies. For illustrative purposes the paper includes a detailed application to one developing country (Namibia).
Evolving Banking Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa
Banking in SSA has undergone very significant changes over the last two decades. Financial liberalization and related reforms, upgrades in institutional and more recently the expansion of cross-border banking activities and the rapid development of Pan-African banking groups are signaling greater financial integration and significant changes in the African banking and financial landscape. Nonetheless, excess liquidity in many countries reflects limited lending opportunities and, despite improvements, asset quality and provisioning remain comparatively low. Dollarization has also been a persistent characteristic in several natural resource-dependent economies. This paper discusses key stylized facts and trends of banking development in SSA, looking at a variety of dimensions such as size, depth, soundness, and efficiency. It also assess the rapid expansion of pan-African banking groups, which have overtaken the role of the European and U.S. banks that had traditionally dominated banking activities in SSA, creating significant cross-border networks and becoming the largest participants in new syndicates and large bilateral loans to finance infrastructure development.
Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries
We propose a toolkit for the assessment of systemic risk buildup in low income countries. We show that, due to non-linearity in the relationship between credit and financial stability, the assessment should be conducted with different tools at different stages of financial development. In particular, when the level of financial depth is low, traditional leading indicators of banking crises have poor predictive performance and the analysis should be based on indicators that account for financial deepening while taking into consideration countries’ structural limits. By using this framework, we provide a preliminary assessment of systemic risk buildup in individual SSA countries.
Staff Guidance Note on the Sovereign Risk and Debt Sustainability Framework for Market Access Countries
This note provides operational guidance for the use of the Sovereign Risk and Debt Sustainability Framework (SRDSF), which replaces the Debt Sustainability Framework for Market Access Countries. The SRDSF introduces improvements in organization, methodology, transparency, and communication when analyzing public debt issues in countries that mainly finance themselves with market-based debt. After its phased adoption beginning [June 2022], it will become the Fund’s principal tool for assessing public debt sustainability.
The Impact of the Global Crisison South-Eastern Europe
This paper analyzes the impact of the global crisis on six South-Eastern European countries. The main objective is to compare macro-financial conditions and policies in the run-up to the crisis as well as to compare the policy responses to it, so as to highlight, inter alia, possible country-specific constraints. While sharing a common pre-crisis pattern of strong capital inflows and robust growth, a key difference in the conduct of macroeconomicpolicies is that some countries adopted expansionary (and procyclical) fiscal policies. These moves exacerbated external vulnerabilities and compromised the ability to discretionarily use the fiscal instrument in acountercyclical fashion.
Republic of San Marino
This Article IV Consultation focuses on San Marino’s prolonged recession. The global crisis has led to a significant decline in budget revenues. However, San Marino’s sizable pre-2008 budget surplus, combined with recent tax measures and efforts to restrain expenditures, have helped contain the deficit at about 3 percent of GDP. Executive Directors noted that San Marino’s economy will face financial and fiscal challenges in the near term, as well as uncertain medium-term prospects. Directors considered that, notwithstanding the recent recapitalization, the largest bank will need more capital to meet prudential requirements.
Niger
This Selected Issues paper presents an external stability assessment on Niger. Niger’s current account balance deteriorated in 2013, mostly on account of higher food and capital goods imports. The deficit is expected to widen further in 2014–15, mainly driven by large investment in the extractive industry and basic infrastructure. The current account is projected to gradually improve from 2016 as important projects in infrastructure will come to end, the oil and mining sectors come on stream and public and private savings increase. Although aid and foreign direct investments are the main sources of external financing, external borrowing–mainly on concessional terms–has increased significantly.
Republic of Serbia
Serbia succeeded in addressing macroeconomic imbalances and restoring confidence and growth under the precautionary SBA which expired in February 2018. Fiscal sustainability has been restored by placing public debt on a firm downward path and the external position has been realigned with fundamentals. Monetary policy has kept inflation under firm control, while supporting economic recovery. The resilience of the financial sector has improved. Progress has also been made on structural and institutional reforms, including in rationalizing the size of public sector employment, addressing fiscal risks from SOEs, and improving the business environment. However, challenges remain for achieving robust, inclusive, and sustainable growth, which Serbia needs for faster income convergence with its EU peers. The authorities requested a 30-month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) to provide a framework for continued macroeconomic stability and reforms, and maintain close policy dialogue with staff.
Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries - 2016
This paper is the third in a series assessing macroeconomic developments and prospects in low-income developing countries (LIDCs). The first of these papers (IMF, 2014a) examined trends during 2000–2014, a period of sustained strong growth across most LIDCs. The second paper (IMF, 2015a) focused on the impact of the drop in global commodity prices since mid-2014 on LIDCs—a story with losers (countries dependent on commodity exports, notably fuel) and winners (countries with a more diverse export base, where growth remained robust). The overarching theme in this paper’s assessment of the macroeconomic conjuncture among LIDCs is that of incomplete adjustment to the new world of “lower ...
