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Key Challenges Faced by Fossil Fuel Exporters During the Energy Transition
The global energy transition is affecting fossil fuel exporters from multiple angles. It is adding to longstanding uncertainties on relative movements of fossil fuel demand and supply—which impact fossil fuel-related exports, fiscal flows, investment and subsequently external and fiscal accounts, economic growth, and employment. While policymakers are very familiar with these challenges, they now also face expectations of a permanent decline in the long-run global demand for fossil fuels. Key factors that could determine country-level impacts include (i) the type of fossil fuel a country exports (ii) extraction costs and (iii) country characteristics. The monitoring and mitigation of fisca...
Designing a Fiscal Framework for a Prospective Commodity Producer
Lebanon is expected to have gas resources in its Mediterranean basin, and these could turn the country into a natural gas producer over the next decade. Lebanon’s economy and institutions will thus need to adapt to the challenges and opportunities that such change will bring. In this paper, we address how Lebanon’s fiscal framework will need to be reformulated to take into account potential resource revenue. Designing a fiscal regime appropriately is an absolute prerequisite to make sure the government can receive a fair share of the resources while investors face appropriate incentives to invest and develop the sector. This step should be followed by setting macro-fiscal anchors and supporting institutions. The prospective framework should initially be focused on ensuring fiscal sustainability and intergenerational equity, given the estimated relatively short horizon of Lebanon’s gas resources. Strong institutional arrangements also need to underpin the prospective framework, to ensure that the pace of resource wealth’s use is set in line with Lebanon’s capacity constraints.
Africa: Still Rising?
After decades of unsatisfying performances, economic growth took off in many sub-Saharan states at the beginning of the 21st century. More recently, however, the end of the commodity cycle – particularly with the oil price drop – and the rise of jihadist violence rocked the “Emerging Africa” boat. Is this the beginning of the end for sustained growth in the region? This Report investigates the economic impact of these new challenges upon Africa’s frontier markets. It shows that the positive economic trajectory of recent years is being negatively affected, particularly for oil-exporting countries. However, while more caution is needed, Africa’s growth prospects on the whole remain fairly good – at least for now. But there is an increasing need to understand the specific risks that individual countries face and the opportunities that they offer, as well as to re-assess the potential of each specific sector of economic activity. The three largest economies in the region – Nigeria, South Africa and Angola – are all under pressure. Others, including Ethiopia, Mozambique and Kenya, are still projected to achieve remarkable growth rates.
IMF Research Bulletin, December 2014
The December 2015 IMF Research Bulletin features a sampling of key research from the IMF. The Research Summaries in this issue look at “The Impact of Deflation and Lowflation on Fiscal Aggregates (Nicolas End, Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba, Gilbert Terrier, and Renaud Duplay); and “Oil Exporters at the Crossroads: It Is High Time to Diversify” (Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov). Mahvash Saeed Qureshi provides an overview of the fifth Lindau Meeting in Economics in “Meeting the Nobel Giants.” In the Q&A column on “Seven Questions on Financial Frictions and the Sources of the Business Cycle, Marzie Taheri Sanjani looks at the driving forces of the business cycle and macroeconomic models. The top-viewed articles in 2014 from the IMF Economic Review are highlighted, along with recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and IMF publications.
The Taxation of Petroleum and Minerals
There are few areas of economic policy-making in which the returns to good decisions are so high—and the punishment of bad decisions so cruel—as in the management of natural resource wealth. Rich endowments of oil, gas and minerals have set some countries on courses of sustained and robust prosperity; but they have left others riddled with corruption and persistent poverty, with little of lasting value to show for squandered wealth. And amongst the most important of these decisions are those relating to the tax treatment of oil, gas and minerals. This book will be of interest to Economics postgraduates and researchers working on resource issues, as well as professionals working on taxation of oil, gas and minerals/mining.
From Fossil Fuels to Low Carbon Energy Transition
Focusing on five key themes - hydrocarbons, electricity, mining, social license to operate, and arbitration/dispute resolution- via in-depth country and regional case studies, this book seeks to capture the contrasting and sometimes conflicting trends in energy governance in Latin America as it wrestles with a dependence on fossil fuels whilst shifting toward a low carbon future. Energy transition continues to sit at the centre of the Latin American policy debate as the world continues to push for carbon neutrality by 2050. Latin America is undergoing a renewable energy transition, with substantial reserves (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal) and many countries in the region setting ambitious renewable energy policies, laws, and regulations to address climate change. However, recent initiatives to promote renewables must be placed in context. Historically, Latin America has developed and improved its economic and social standards due primarily to an economy based on the extractive industries and fossil fuels. This places renewables at the crossroads of multiple drivers, as the region seek to ensure security of supply, attract investment, and facilitate a low carbon energy transition.
Multi-Country Report
This report reviews the IMF’s effort to build fiscal capacity in fragile states. It presents case studies on IMF technical assistance (TA) and capacity development in the fiscal area, provided by its Fiscal Affairs Department in collaboration with the Legal Department, in countries including Afghanistan, Haiti, Kosovo, Liberia, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Timor-Leste. The details in the case studies in various areas of fiscal policy management shed light on country-specific characteristics, how well IMF TA helped countries address fiscal capacity in the past, and lessons learned that could improve TA strategies and delivery in the future.
The IMF-World Bank Climate Policy Assessment Tool (CPAT): A Model to Help Countries Mitigate Climate Change
To stabilize the climate, global greenhouse gas emissions must be cut by 25 to 50 percent by 2030 compared to 2019. Such an unprecedented rate of decarbonization necessitates climate mitigation policies across countries, notably carbon pricing, fossil fuel subsidy reform, renewable subsidies, feebates, emission rate regulations, and public investments. To design and implement effective, efficient, and equitable policies, governments need tools to assess economic, environmental, fiscal, and social impacts. To support this effort, the IMF and World Bank are making their joint Climate Policy Assessment Tool (CPAT) available to governments. CPAT is a transparent, flexible, and user-friendly model covering over 200 countries. It allows for the rapid quantification of impacts of climate mitigation policies, including on energy demand, prices, emissions, revenues, welfare, GDP, households and industries, local air pollution and health, and many other metrics. This paper describes the CPAT model, its data sources, key assumptions, and caveats.
Honduras: Diagnóstico de Política Climática
Resumen De Alto Nivel Informe De Asistencia Técnica: Honduras: Diagnóstico de Política Climática
Uganda
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the advice provided by the IMF staff to the authorities of Uganda regarding extractive industry fiscal regimes. As Uganda’s portfolio of projects diversifies in the oil sector, the minimum take could be adjusted to allow for possible bonus bids, and for higher shares in the most successful projects. The royalty design also needs to take account of new provisions for distribution of a portion to local governments. The cost recovery limit could be set at 70 percent after deduction of royalty. In addition to work program, either a signature bonus or an upper tier of production sharing should form the bid variable in the licensing round, with all other items fixed and non-negotiable.
