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Strategic Trading in Illiquid Markets
The Area of Research and the Object of Investigation In this thesis we will investigate trading strategies in illiquid markets from a market microstructure perspective. Market microstructure is the academic term for the branch of financial economics that investigates trading and the organization of security markets, see, e. g. , Harris (2002). Historically, exchanges evolved as a location, where those interested in buy ing or selling securities could meet physically to transact. Thus, traditionally security trading was organized on exchange floors, where so-called dealers arranged all trades and provided liquidity by quoting prices at which they were willing buy or sell. Consequently, the in...
Econometric Studies
None
Monetary Policy
This book provides an in-depth description and analysis of monetary policy in Europe and the United States. Focusing specifically on the European Central Bank, it offers one of the first comprehensive guides to understanding the targets, strategy, and instruments of the ECB.
Leading Indicators of Fiscal Distress
Early warning systems (EWS) are widely used for assessing countries’ vulnerability to fiscal distress. Most EWS employ a specific set of only fiscal leading indicators predetermined by the researchers, which casts doubt on their robustness. We revisit this issue by using the Extreme Bound Analysis, which allows identifying robust leading indicators of fiscal distress from a large set. Consistent with the theoretical predictions of latest generation crisis models, we find that both fiscal (e.g., fiscal balance, foreign exchange debt) and non-fiscal leading indicators (e.g., output, FX reserves, current account balance, and openness) are robust. In addition, we find that a fiscal vulnerability indicator based on fiscal and non-fiscal leading indicators offers a 29% gain in predictive power compared to a traditional one based on fiscal leading indicators only. It also has good predictive power out of sample, with 78 percent of crises predicted correctly and only 34 percent false alarms issued for the period 2008–15. This suggests that both fiscal and non-fiscal leading indicators should be taken into account when assessing country’s vulnerability to fiscal distress.
Market-Conform Valuation of Options
The focus of this volume is on the development of new approaches for the market-conform valuation of newly issued derivatives. The first chapter presents a flexible approach to construct the binomial process of the underlying asset price by using a simultaneously backward and forward induction algorithm. This framework can be used to price and hedge a wide range of plain-vanilla and exotic options. In the second chapter this new approach is compared to existing models using a sample of plain-vanilla options, American call options and European Barrier options from two competing markets. In the third chapter new methods to value American-style options via Monte Carlo simulations in accordance with given market prices are discussed. After a short introduction to Monte Carlo methods, two new approaches are proposed. These new frameworks are illustrated via pricing examples for standard American put options.
The Design of the Eurosystem's Monetary Policy Instruments
The creation of a single monetary currency and a single monetary policy in the euro area has faced extraordinary challenges, among them the design of suitable monetary policy instruments. This book evaluates monetary policy instruments of the Eurosystem against a number of requirements. To do so, a theoretical model framework is developed which brings together the monetary policy activities of a central bank and the liquidity management of banks considering the main characteristics and institutional features of the euro area.
Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty, Second Edition
This book provides a thorough survey of the model-based literature on optimal monetary in a stochastic setting. The survey begins with the literature of the 1970s which focused on the information problem in policy design and extends to the New Keynesian approach of the 1990s which centered on evaluating alternative targeting strategies. New to the second edition is consideration of research since the world financial crisis on the role of financial markets and institutions in the conduct of monetary policy.
Collateral Frameworks
The first book-length study of the importance of collateral frameworks in monetary policy, focusing on the Eurozone and euro crisis.
Money Demand in Europe
In 1999 a number of member states of the European Union will adopt a common currency. This change in the monetary system requires that a Eur opean Central Bank is set up and a common monetary policy is pursued. There is general agreement among those countries which are likely to join the common currency that price level stability has to be the ultimate objec tive of monetary po1icy. It is an open issue, however, what kind of policy is best suited for that purpose. The alternative strategies under discussion are a direct inflation targeting, an intermediate monetary targeting or a mixture of both. For these policy strategies a stable money demand relation is of cen tral importance. Therefore ...
Uncovering Changing Relations in Financial and Monetary Economics
In her doctoral thesis, Barbara Meller compiles her work on applied econometrics focusing on policy decision making in financial and monetary economics.In the first part of the book, the effect of financial globalization on the volatility of economic growth is empirically examined in a large sample of countries. The analysis provides clear criteria which countries should fulfill in order to benefit from financial globalization in terms of reduced volatility. In general, financial globalization is more favorable for countries with a higher ability to repay debt. The focus of the second part of the book is inflation persistence which is measured using long-memory techniques. As inflation persi...
