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Evaluating IMF Training: What Can We Learn?
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 44

Evaluating IMF Training: What Can We Learn?

The IMF provides training to its membership in its core areas of expertise mainly through its Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) or formerly the IMF Institute (INS). This paper looks at the methods that ICD used to evaluate this activity and analyzes the data collected over the period 2006–13. Since 2015, ICD has undertaken a review of its curriculum and revamped its courses and evaluations. Hence this paper provides a detailed analysis of the situation prior to the review.The study's novel feature is its attempt to distill information from all evaluation sources in one place. It also conducts analysis to explain the evaluation results using participant demographic information. An important message that emerges from the different surveys is that ICD’s training program is well liked. Notable differences in results surface when sorting evaluations results by course type or by geographic location, and whether evaluations were filled out by participants or by their sponsoring managers.

Industrial Policy for Growth and Diversification: A Conceptual Framework
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 31

Industrial Policy for Growth and Diversification: A Conceptual Framework

As countries strive for a strong recovery and to recoup the losses incurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, they need to map out a new path for development and high and sustained growth. Promoting diversification, developing new industrial capabilities, and designing the policies needed to achieve this goal should be a priority. A successful diversification strategy should tackle both broad policy failures, such as an unfavorable business environment and investment climate and sector-specific market failures. This departmental paper presents a conceptual framework to analyze industrial policy, defined as targeted sectoral interventions. The authors first discuss the key principles that should guide policymakers, that is, a focus on the market failures that could justify targeted sectoral interventions, as well as the potential government failures that can undermine these interventions. The authors then discuss some commonly employed policy tools, their rationale, and the associated pitfalls. Finally, the authors outline a stylized decision-making framework.

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2014
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 110

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2014

Growth in much of Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain strong, driven by efforts to invest in infrastructure and strong agricultural production. The current Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone is exacting a heavy toll, with spillovers to neighboring countries. External threats to the region's overall positive outlook include global financial conditions and a slowdown in emerging market growth.

IMF Policies and Practices on Capacity Development
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 13

IMF Policies and Practices on Capacity Development

This statement summarizes the IMF’s policies and practices with regard to the delivery of capacity development (CD) activities. It updates the 2001 Policy Statement on IMF Technical Assistance, incorporating the principles outlined in the 2013 CD strategy paper approved by the Executive Board as well as relevant principles described in earlier documents considered by the Executive Board.1 The purpose of the statement is to consolidate the guiding principles endorsed by the Board with policies and practices that are within the authority of IMF’s Management and are followed by staff in carrying out capacity development activities. The statement is expected to be of use to IMF staff, Executive Directors and their staff, country authorities, and donors. It also serves as a point of reference for future reviews of the IMF’s CD activities.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2012, Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 137

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2012, Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa continues to record strong economic growth, despite the weaker global economic environment. Regional output rose by 5 percent in 2011, with growth set to increase slightly in 2012, helped by still-strong commodity prices, new resource exploitation, and the improved domestic conditions that have underpinned several years of solid trend growth in the region's low-income countries. But there is variation in performance across the region, with output in middle-income countries tracking more closely the global slowdown and with some sub-regions adversely affected, at least temporarily, by drought. Threats to the outlook include the risk of intensified financial stresses in the euro area spilling over into a further slowing of the global economy and the possibility of an oil price surge triggered by rising geopolitical tensions.

Integrated Policy Framework—Principles for the Use of Foreign Exchange Intervention
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 61

Integrated Policy Framework—Principles for the Use of Foreign Exchange Intervention

This note guides policy advice on the use of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) as part of the Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) in Fund surveillance. The note provides general principles for the advice in countries with flexible exchange rates and sets out three use cases for FXI that are tied to specific frictions. It explores the use of FXI as part of an overall policy response, allowing the advice to differ with shocks, frictions, and country-specific circumstances.

World Economic Outlook, October 2012
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 251

World Economic Outlook, October 2012

The October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) assesses the prospects for the global recovery in light of such risks as the ongoing euro area crisis and the "fiscal cliff" facing U.S. policymakers. Reducing the risks to the medium-term outlook implies reducing public debt in the major advanced economies, and Chapter 3 explores 100 years of history of dealing with public debt overhangs. In emerging market and developing economies, activity has been slowed by policy tightening in response to capacity constraints, weaker demand from advanced economies, and country-specific factors, but policy improvements have raised these economies' resilience to shocks, an issue explored in depth in Chapter 4.

Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 26

Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and higher net foreign assets significantly reduce the probability of experiencing a currency crisis, while high levels of credit to the private sector increase it. We find that the logit and probit EWS out-of-sample performances are broadly similar, and that the EWS performance can be very sensitive both to the size of the estimation sample, and to the crisis definition employed. For macroeconomic policy purposes, we conclude that a currency crisis definition identifying more rather than less crisis episodes should be used, even if this may lead to the risk of issuing false alarms.

Is the Paris Agreement Working? A Stocktake of Global Climate Mitigation
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 44

Is the Paris Agreement Working? A Stocktake of Global Climate Mitigation

Urgent and aggressive action to cut greenhouse gas emissions this decade is needed. As countries take stock of the Paris Agreement, this Note provides IMF staff’s annual assessment of global climate mitigation policy. Global ambition needs to be more than quadrupled: emissions cuts of 50 percent below 2019 levels by 2030 are needed for 1.5 degrees Celsius, but current targets would only achieve 11 percent. We provide options for ratcheting-up ambition equitably. Implementation could be accelerated via agreements on minimum carbon prices. Drastic increases in mitigation investment are needed, requiring policies to shift private sector incentives. Climate finance should be scaled-up, with a new goal aligned with needs in developing countries. The development and diffusion of low-carbon technologies should be accelerated collaboratively. Overall, the Paris Agreement is making progress, but a response to the Global Stocktake that prioritizes decisive action this decade is critical.

The Fund's Capacity Development Strategy - Better Policies Through Stronger Institutions - Background Paper
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 37

The Fund's Capacity Development Strategy - Better Policies Through Stronger Institutions - Background Paper

This supplement provides background information on various aspects of capacity development (CD) for the main Board paper, The Fund’s Capacity Development Strategy—Better Policies through Stronger Institutions. It is divided into nine notes or sections, each focused on a different topic covered in the main paper. Section A explores the importance of institutions for growth, and the role the Fund can play in building institutions. Section B presents stylized facts about how the landscape for CD has changed since the late 1990s. Section C discusses the difficulties of analyzing CD data because of measurement issues. Section D provides a longer-term perspective on how Fund CD has responded to member needs. Section E contains information on previous efforts to prioritize CD, assesses Regional Strategy Notes (RSNs) and country pages, and suggests ways to strengthen RSNs, including by using the Fund’s surveillance products. Section F compares the technical assistance (TA) funding model proposed in the 2011