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Tackling the Global Food Crisis
Russia’s war in Ukraine has exacerbated food insecurity that had already been on the rise for half a decade. Low-income countries are affected the most. This note suggests that the food and fertilizer price shock would add $9 billion in 2022 and 2023 to the import bills of the 48 most affected countries. The budgetary cost of protecting vulnerable households in these countries amounts to $5–7 billion. Strong and timely action on a global scale is needed to support vulnerable households through international humanitarian assistance and domestic fiscal measures; to maintain open trade; to enhance food production and distribution; and to invest in climate-resilient agriculture. The IMF has ...
Promoting Inclusive Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia
CCA countries achieved gains in inclusiveness over the past 20 years as incomes increased and poverty, inequality, and unemployment declined. Most of the progress occurred before the 2008–09 global financial crisis. Since then, poverty rates have barely moved and, for oil importers, remain elevated.
Morocco
This paper discusses two selected issues related to the economy of Morocco: fiscal multipliers and efficiency of public spending on education in Morocco. Because of the several exogenous shocks to the economic condition of Morocco, interest in estimating the size of the fiscal multiplier has increased in recent past. To better understand the size of the fiscal multiplier, it may be necessary to better comprehend the relationship between key macroeconomic variables in both the short and long run. Despite spending substantially on education in compared to other countries, youth unemployment in Morocco is high. This paper aims to help tackle youth unemployment by focusing on the efficiency of public spending on education.
Republic of Madagascar
Madagascar has not yet recovered from the pandemic and is struggling with the aftermath of a severe cyclone season and the fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine. After a sharp contraction of GDP in 2020 (-7.1 percent) and a modest recovery in 2021 (4.3 percent), growth is projected to stall in 2022. Lower demand from trading partners, higher fuel and food prices, and recent weather events are weighing on economic activity and leading to widening fiscal and external deficits in the short term.
Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
Fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) already face higher temperatures than other countries and will be more exposed to extreme heat and weather events going forward. Using innovative approaches, the paper finds that in FCS, climate vulnerability and underlying fragilities—namely conflict, heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture, and weak capacity—exacerbate each other, amplifying the negative impact on people and economies. FCS suffer more severe and persistent GDP losses than other countries due to climate shocks because their underlying fragilities amplify the impact of shocks, in particular in agriculture. At the same time, climate shocks worsen underlying fragilities, namely conflict. Macro-critical adaptation policies are needed to facilitate the immediate response to climate shocks and to build climate resilience over time. Sizeable and sustained international support—especially grants, concessional financing and capacity development—is urgent to avoid worse outcomes, including forced displacement and migration. The IMF is stepping up support to FCS in dealing with climate challenges through carefully tailored policy advice, financing, and capacity development.
Republic of Madagascar
The COVID-19 pandemic and extreme weather events have aggravated Madagascar’s fragility. The poverty rate is estimated to be above 80 percent. After a stronger-than-expected recovery in 2021, growth is estimated to have decelerated in 2022 mostly due to climate shocks and a worsening global environment. Fiscal performance has deteriorated with weak revenue performance and increasing crossliabilities with oil distributors. While fiscal and external deficits have widened, fiscal and external sustainability are preserved in the medium term.
Kuwait
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that decline in oil prices has adversely affected Kuwait’s fiscal and current account balances and slowed growth in 2014–15. Real non-oil GDP growth is projected to slow in 2015 and 2016, and pick up to 4 percent in the medium term, supported by government investment in infrastructure and private investment. The fiscal and external positions are projected to deteriorate further in 2015 and 2016, and improve somewhat over the medium term as oil prices and production recover partially.
Revenue Mobilization for a Resilient and Inclusive Recovery in the Middle East and Central Asia
Domestic revenue mobilization has been a longstanding challenge for countries in the Middle East and Central Asia. Insufficient revenue has often constrained priority social and infrastructure spending, reducing countries’ ability to reach the Sustainable Development Goals, improve growth prospects, and address climate related challenges. Moreover, revenue shortfalls have often been compensated by large and sustained debt accumulation, raising vulnerabilities in some countries, and limiting fiscal space to address future shocks. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have compounded challenges to sustainable public finances, underscoring the need for revenue mobilization efforts. The...
New Energy Sources for Jordan
Jordan’s initiatives to reduce its energy dependency could have substantial macroeconomic implications, but will crucially depend on the level of international oil prices in the next decade. Significant uncertainties remain regarding the feasibility of the initiatives and their potential fiscal costs, including from contingent liabilities, could be very large. Given the lead time required for such major investments, work should start now on: (i) conducting comprehensive cost-benefits analysis of these projects; (ii) addressing the challenges arising from the taxation of natural resources; and (iii) designing a fiscal framework to anchor fiscal policies if revenue from these energy projects materializes.
Climate Change and Chronic Food Insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Climate change is intensifying food insecurity across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with lasting adverse macroeconomic effects, especially on economic growth and poverty. Successive shocks from the war in Ukraine and COVID-19 pandemic have increased food prices and depressed incomes, raising the number of people suffering from high malnutrition and unable to meet basic food consumption needs by at least 30 percent to 123 million in 2022 or 12 percent of SSA’s population. Addressing the lack of resilience to climate change—that critically underlies food insecurity in SSA—will require careful policy prioritization against a backdrop of financing and capacity constraints. This paper presents s...
