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China’s Impacts on SSA through the Lens of Growth and Exports
The analysis of China’s impacts on the 44 SSA countries reveals that: (i) after joining the WTO in 2001, China has started to impact significantly on SSA growth: one-percent increase in China’s GDP per capita leads to 0.02 percent increase on the SSA’s GDP per capita; (ii) oil and investment-goods exporters benefit more from China’s growth; (iii) compared to China’s consumption, its investment growth acts as a more important channel in influencing SSA; (iv) exports to China, highly linked to China’s growth, is an important indicator for SSA’s exports. Our results call for SSA countries to be well prepared for China’s rebalancing given its growing economic influence and to proactively search a sustainable way to continuously enhance productivity.
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2013, Asia and Pacific
Growth in the Asia-Pacific region shows signs of improving as extreme risks emanating from advanced economies have receded and domestic demand remains resilient, supported by relatively easy financial conditions and robust labor markets. A small and gradual pick-up in growth to over 53⁄4 percent is projected in the course of 2013. Risks to the outlook from within the region, such as rising financial imbalances and asset prices in some economies, are coming clearer into focus. Although Asia’s banking and corporate sectors have solid buffers, monetary policymakers should stand ready to respond early and decisively to shifting risks, and macroprudential measures will also have a role to pla...
Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets
In recent years, portfolio flows to emerging markets have become increasingly large and volatile. Using weekly portfolio fund flows data, the paper finds that their short-run dynamics are driven mostly by global “push” factors. To what extent do these cross-border flows and global risk aversion drive asset volatility in emerging markets? We use a Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Multivariate GARCH framework to estimate the impact of portfolio flows and the VIX index on three asset prices, namely equity returns, bond yields and exchange rates, in 17 emerging economies. The analysis shows that global risk aversion has a significant impact on the volatility of asset prices, while the magnitude of that impact correlates with country characteristics, including financial openness, the exchange rate regime, as well as macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation and the current account balance. In line with earlier literature, portfolio flows to emerging markets are also found to affect the level of asset prices, as was the case in particular during the global financial crisis.
Considerations on the Role of the SDR
This paper explores whether a broader role for the SDR could contribute to the smooth functioning and stability of the international monetary system (IMS). Recent staff assessments highlighted that the IMS has displayed considerable resilience. But episodes of stress point also to some weaknesses, including in external adjustment mechanisms; limitations of official liquidity provisions through the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN); and large-scale reserve accumulation—with systemic side effects. Those weaknesses, together with the expansion of the SDR basket, have renewed interest in the SDR and motivated a discussion of whether there is an economic rationale for a broader SDR role. The paper looks into how those weaknesses can be mitigated by three concepts of the SDR: the official SDR, the reserve asset administered by the IMF (O-SDR); SDR-denominated financial instruments, or “market SDRs” (M-SDR); and the SDR as a unit of account (U-SDR). However, the paper does not propose specific reform options.
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2016, Asia and Pacific
Although Asia remains a growth leader in the global economy, growth is expected to ease slightly to 5.5 percent during 2016, with countries affected to varying degrees by a still weak global recovery, slowing global trade, and the short-term impact of China’s growth transition. Structural reforms are needed if Asia is to maintain its position in the global economy, including reforms aimed at enhancing productive capacity. Needed reforms range from state-owned enterprise and financial sector reform in China to labor and product market reforms in Japan and reforms to remove supply bottlenecks in India, ASEAN, frontier economies, and small states.
Jamaica
Jamaica’s commitment to macroeconomic stability and strong policy frameworks continue to allow the country to navigate the difficult global environment. Strong growth continued over the last fiscal year, and sound macroeconomic policies are focused on prioritizing sustainability, supporting growth, and facilitating the convergence of inflation to the midpoint of the central bank’s target band. There are significant risks ahead—from tighter than expected global financial conditions, commodity price volatility, and natural disasters—but the economic outlook remains a positive one.
Systemwide Liquidity Stress Testing Tool
Developing a systemic liquidity stress testing tool is challenging due to data constraints and hard-to-model behavioral factors. There has yet to be a uniformly accepted model partly because the nature of systemic liquidity risks differs significantly across countries. This paper offers a simple Excel-based tool to assess the high-level impact of aggregate liquidity stress on the whole economy and gauge its spillover across banks, non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), and non-financial economic sectors. It primarily uses the balance sheet approach (BSA) data—a sector-aggregate matrix of financial exposure by counterpart—that have become increasingly available for various economies with all income levels. The results can identify systemically important financial linkages to be analyzed further and help calibrate macroprudential measures and a liquidity support framework. When liquidity stress stems from capital outflows, the tool can enrich policy discussion based on integrated policy framework (IPF) and international reserve adequacy perspectives.
World Economic Outlook, October 2016
According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very ...
Spillover Implications of China's Slowdown for International Trade
Using a panel vector autoregression and a novel measure of export-intensity-adjusted final demand, this note studies spillovers from China’s economic transition on export growth in 46 advanced and emerging market economies. The analysis suggests that a 1 percentage point shock to China’s final demand growth reduces the average country’s export growth by 0.1–0.2 percentage point. The impact is largest in Emerging Asia, where an export-growth-accounting exercise suggests that China’s economic transition has reduced average export growth rates by 1 percentage point since early 2014. Other countries linked to China’s manufacturing sector, as well as commodity exporters, are also significantly affected. This suggests that trading partners need to adjust to an environment of weaker external demand as China completes its transition to a more sustainable growth model.
Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions
This paper investigates how country-specific external demand, external financial conditions, and terms of trade affect medium-term growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies and the occurrence of growth accelerations and reversals. The importance of country-specific external conditions for medium-term growth has increased over time—in particular, the growing contribution of external financial conditions accounts for one-third of the increase in average income per capita growth between 1995–2004 and 2005–14. Stronger external demand and financial conditions significantly increase the probability of growth accelerations, while a strengthening of any of the three conditions significantly decreases the probability of reversals.
