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The New Wave of Private Capital Inflows
In most cases, push. Lower international interest rates are a key factor in the new wave of capital inflows to developing countries. Whether that wave is sustainable depends on the economic performance of industrial countries. This makes developing countries vulnerable - but a soft landing is feasible.
Wanted
"This volume examines ... issues ... discussed at two Inter-American Development Bank conferences: "Crisis and Contagion in Emerging Financial Markets: The New Policy Agenda" [and] "New Initiatives to Tackle International Financial Turmoil"
Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries
This empirical study finds that while debt reduction and policy reforms in debtor countries have been important determinants of renewed access to international capital markets, changes in international interest rates have been the dominant factor. We calculate the effects of changes in international interest rates for a 'typical' debtor country. We conclude that increases in interest rates associated with business cycle upturn in industrial countries could depress the secondary market prices of existing debt to levels inconsistent with continued capital inflows.
Export Pioneers in Latin America
Why do some export activities succeed while others fail? Here, research teams analyze export endeavors in Latin American countries to learn how export pioneers are born and jump-start a process leading to economic transformation. Case studies range from blueberries in Argentina and flowers in Colombia to aircraft in Brazil and software in Uruguay.
The World of Forking Paths
This report details the divergent paths that the world economy may take and their potential effects on Latin America and the Caribbean. Scenarios are constructed employing a modeling exercise that captures the trade, financial and other linkages between the region and the rest of the world. While vulnerabilities remain and external shocks have been and remain critical, the region enjoys many strengths and has developed a growing arsenal of policy tools. What is the balance of vulnerabilities versus strengths? How can countries address the existing vulnerabilities? How can they perfect their policy tools and minimize the effect of external crises?
Rethinking Productive Development
Productive transformation requires seizing the opportunities available and opening new ones in a competitive world. Rethinking Productive Development examines the market failures impeding transformation and the government failures that may make the policy remedies worse than the market illness. To address market failures, the authors propose a simple conceptual framework based on the scope and nature of the policy approach. They then systematically analyze country policies through this lens in key areas such as innovation, new firms, financing, human capital, and internationalization to show the power of this way of thinking. Still, the book warns that policymakers cannot be sure what the right policy interventions are and must set up a process to discover them that calls for public-private collaboration. Recognizing that the risk of capture needs to be checked and that even the best policies will fail without the technical, organizational, and political capacity to implement them, the book concludes with ideas on how to design institutions fostering the right incentives and how to grow public sector capabilities over time.
