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Understanding Elections through Statistics
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 209

Understanding Elections through Statistics

  • Type: Book
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  • Published: 2020-11-02
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  • Publisher: CRC Press

Elections are random events. From individuals deciding whether to vote, to people deciding for whom to vote, to election authorities deciding what to count, the outcomes of competitive democratic elections are rarely known until election day...or beyond. Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing explores this random phenomenon from two points of view: predicting the election outcome using opinion polls and testing the election outcome using government-reported data. Written for those with only a brief introduction to statistics, this book takes you on a statistical journey from how polls are taken to how they can—and should—be used to estimate current p...

Forecasting Elections
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 184

Forecasting Elections

  • Type: Book
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  • Published: 1992
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  • Publisher: Unknown

All political scientists aim to explain politics. In addition to this goal, Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom Rice aim to forecast political events, specifically election results. In "Forecasting Elections" the authors systematically develop easy-to-understand models based on national economic and political measures to forecast eleciton results for the U.S. presidency, House of Representatives, Senate, governorships, and state legislatures. For comparative purposes, the more complex French electoral system is studied. In the final chapter the authors instruct readers on how to use the models to make their own forecasts of future elections. -- From publisher's description.

Forecasting Presidential Elections
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 211

Forecasting Presidential Elections

  • Type: Book
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  • Published: 1983
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  • Publisher: Unknown

Describes a method for analyzing the forces that influence election results and predicting the outcome of elections for the president of the United States

Politics and Big Data
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 189

Politics and Big Data

The importance of social media as a way to monitor an electoral campaign is well established. Day-by-day, hour-by-hour evaluation of the evolution of online ideas and opinion allows observers and scholars to monitor trends and momentum in public opinion well before traditional polls. However, there are difficulties in recording and analyzing often brief, unverified comments while the unequal age, gender, social and racial representation among social media users can produce inaccurate forecasts of final polls. Reviewing the different techniques employed using social media to nowcast and forecast elections, this book assesses its achievements and limitations while presenting a new technique of "sentiment analysis" to improve upon them. The authors carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature to show the conditions under which social media-based electoral forecasts prove most accurate while new case studies from France, the United States and Italy demonstrate how much more accurate "sentiment analysis" can prove.

The Routledge Handbook of Elections, Voting Behavior and Public Opinion
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 786

The Routledge Handbook of Elections, Voting Behavior and Public Opinion

  • Type: Book
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  • Published: 2017-09-22
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  • Publisher: Routledge

The study of elections, voting behavior and public opinion are arguably among the most prominent and intensively researched sub-fields within Political Science. It is an evolving sub-field, both in terms of theoretical focus and in particular, technical developments and has made a considerable impact on popular understanding of the core components of liberal democracies in terms of electoral systems and outcomes, changes in public opinion and the aggregation of interests. This handbook details the key developments and state of the art research across elections, voting behavior and the public opinion by providing both an advanced overview of each core area and engaging in debate about the rel...

Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 234

Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition

"It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more dir...

The Future Of Election Forecasting Using Social Media Based Methods. Prospect or Pitfall?
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 19

The Future Of Election Forecasting Using Social Media Based Methods. Prospect or Pitfall?

  • Type: Book
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  • Published: 2015-11-24
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  • Publisher: GRIN Verlag

Seminar paper from the year 2015 in the subject Communications - Media and Politics, Politic Communications, grade: 1,0, University of Constance, language: English, abstract: In 2013 Daniel Gayo-Avello captured the state of the art regarding election prediction with social media publishing a meta-analysis, the very first one in this field of study. Concluding after an extensive literature review, that the „prevailing view [among scientists] is overly optimistic“, Gayo-Avello declares three major problems, that have to be addressed by future research: 1) The need to produce a true forecast, that is published before the election. 2) The need to take into account the biases on Twitter, espe...

How to Predict Elections
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 204

How to Predict Elections

  • Type: Book
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  • Published: 2012-09-01
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  • Publisher: Unknown

None

Long-range Forecasting and Planning
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 168

Long-range Forecasting and Planning

  • Type: Book
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  • Published: 1967
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  • Publisher: Unknown

None

The Timeline of Presidential Elections
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 221

The Timeline of Presidential Elections

In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. P...