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Revolution & Aftermath
"In Revolution and Aftermath: Forging a New Strategy toward Iran, Eric Edelman and Ray Takeyh examine one of the most underappreciated forces that has shaped modern US foreign policy: American-Iranian relations. They argue that America's flawed reading of Iran's domestic politics has hamstrung decades of US diplomacy, resulting in humiliations and setbacks ranging from the 1979-81 hostage crisis to Barack Obama's concession-laden nuclear weapons deal. What presidents and diplomats have repeatedly failed to grasp, they write, is that 'the Islamic Republic is a revolutionary state whose entire identity is invested in its hostility toward the West.' To illuminate a path forward for American-Ira...
Arms Control
Considering the United States' withdrawal from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) of 1988 and the Open Skies Treaty of 1992, arms control agreements have been surrounded by a great deal of uncertainty in recent years. Although the Biden Administration extended the New START Treaty as one of its first national security-related acts in office, the five-year extension did little to assuage the fears of arms control advocates. In this study, Ambassador Eric Edelman explores the origins of these concerns, as well as how the shift from counterinsurgency to great power competition informs thinking about arms control. He finds these answers in the years of the late Cold War and early post-Cold War, which many arms control scholars consider "the golden era" of arms control. Analyzing these arms control agreements, and especially the negotiations surrounding them, Edelman predicts what the next era of arms control will look like. He also offers suggestions to ensure the mistakes of the past are not repeated, drawing upon the history of these negotiations and how scholars at the time predicted they would affect the sphere of arms control.
Revolution and Aftermath
In Revolution and Aftermath: Forging a New Strategy toward Iran, Eric Edelman and Ray Takeyh examine one of the most underappreciated forces that has shaped modern US foreign policy: American-Iranian relations. They argue that America's flawed reading of Iran's domestic politics has hamstrung decades of US diplomacy, resulting in humiliations and setbacks ranging from the 1979–81 hostage crisis to Barack Obama's concession-laden nuclear weapons deal. What presidents and diplomats have repeatedly failed to grasp, they write, is that "the Islamic Republic is a revolutionary state whose entire identity is invested in its hostility toward the West." To illuminate a path forward for American-Iranian relations, the authors address some of the most persistent myths about Iran, its ruling elite, and its people. Finally, they highlight lessons leaders can learn from America's many missteps since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Understanding America's Contested Primacy
The author asserts that the objective measures of national power are at least as important as the subjective assessments of international statesmen and military leaders about the international distribution of power. Those judgments are inevitably affected by a range of cultural, psychological, bureaucratic and political factors. The debate over American decline and whether or not we are entering a multipolar, as opposed to unipolar, world in and of itself will inevitably have an impact on those subjective judgments. Our assessment of putative powers, however, will cover the traditional contenders, Europe and Japan, and include the so-called BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) as well.
Revolution & Aftermath
At head of title: Herbert and Jane Dwight Working Group on Islamism and the International Order.
The Roots of Turkish Conduct
Amid recent upheaval in the Middle East, American policymakers have often turned to Turkey as an important partner that shared many U.S. interests. This perception of Turkey is based primarily on history. More recently, however, Turkey became far less static and much more complex and unpredictable than many American observers and policymakers appreciate. Turkish foreign policy, in particular toward the Middle East, has endured a broad, historic shift during Prime Minister Erdoðan's decade-long tenure. This fundamental reorientation of Turkey's worldview has been difficult to detect, because it has been overshadowed by rapid policy swerves that, on the surface, seem hard to reconcile within a unitary framework. But it is precisely this volatility, combined with Turkey's importance for the Middle East, that makes understanding the roots of Turkish conduct vital, not only for a realistic U.S. approach toward Turkey but also for U.S. policy toward the entire region.
United States-Turkish Cooperation Toward a Post-Assad Syria
U.S. influence inside Syria is currently limited. Thus, any assistance in the formation of a stable and decent post-Assad Syria will require the cooperation of other countries. Turkey, a U.S. ally with keen interests in Syria, can obviously be an important partner. Ankara's interests, however, do not perfectly match Washington's, posing the challenge for policymakers of finding the right tools to align more closely the two countries' visions of Syria's future. This paper lays out the reasons why, putting aside U.S. policy toward the ongoing civil war for the moment, American leaders would serve U.S. interests best by beginning, if they have not yet done so, a serious effort to coordinate with Turkey planning for a government to replace Assad.
Understanding Strategic Interaction in the Second Nuclear Age
This report takes a deeper look at the evolution of nuclear strategy and doctrine in the United States, Russia, and China, and then explores whether and how decisions by one major power have influenced, and might influence, the actions of others.
Credibility Matters
Credibility -- the degree to which an actor's threats and promises are believed by other actors in the international system--is an inherently intangible concept. Yet American credibility is nonetheless crucial to the stability of an international system that ultimately rests on U.S. alliance commitments and security guarantees. If American credibility is strong, then adversaries will be deterred, allies will be reassured, and relative geopolitical stability will prevail. If American credibility is weak, then adversaries will be emboldened, allies will be unnerved, and geopolitical revisionism and aggression will proliferate. Today, America confronts a deepening crisis of credibility in global affairs, due to the military buildups and revisionist strategies being pursued by U.S. adversaries--and no less to the missteps of the United States itself. This report outlines a multi-pronged agenda for shoring up the credibility on which so much of U.S. foreign policy and the international order depends.
