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How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?
We contribute to the intense debate on the real effects of fiscal stimuli by showing that the impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key country characteristics, such as the level of development, exchange rate regime, openness to trade, and public indebtedness. Based on a novel quarterly dataset of government expenditure in 44 countries, we find that (i) the output effect of an increase in government consumption is larger in industrial than in developing countries, (ii) the fisscal multiplier is relatively large in economies operating under predetermined exchange rate but zero in economies operating under flexible exchange rates; (iii) fiscal multipliers in open economies are lower than in closed economies and (iv) fiscal multipliers in high-debt countries are also zero.
No Way Out?
In No Way Out?, Vincent R. Reinhart and his coauthors provide a concise narrative of the financial crisis, the mismatched market incentives and government policies that precipitated it, and the likelihood of its recurrence. This volume is an indispensable resource for policymakers and financial leaders and a timely reminder that until we understand the history of government intervention in the marketplace, we are doomed to repeat failed policies.
No Way Out
In response to the ongoing financial crisis, the U.S. government has significantly expanded its role in economy, resulting in new legislation and both public and private policy overhauls. But these hasty efforts to buoy the economy may ultimately do more harm than good. In No Way Out?, Vincent R. Reinhart and his coauthors provide a concise narrative of the financial crisis, the mismatched market incentives and government policies that precipitated it, and the likelihood of its recurrence. This volume is an indispensable resource for policymakers and financial leaders and a timely reminder that until we understand the history of government intervention in the marketplace, we are doomed to repeat failed policies.
Off the Target
This book describes the history of European integration and the Eurozone, before presenting ways in which the European Union can move forward. Charting integration from before the Second World War, the foundations of the Eurozone are examined to provide insight into the challenges faced by the European Union, including the Global Financial Crisis, over recent decades. The impact of TARGET2 and the European Monetary System are also discussed. This book aims to highlight ways that current challenges to European integration, such as the COVID-19 crisis, environmental degradation, and fiscal debt, can be overcome to promote economic growth and social advancement. It will be relevant to students, researchers, and policymakers interested in the political economy and European economic policy.
Why Follow the Fed? Monetary Policy in Times of US Tightening
I conduct interviews with 32 Central Bankers from Emerging Markets and present five unifying themes that explain their behavior when reacting to a U.S. monetary tightening. I then estimate the impulse response functions of their two main monetary tools, the policy rate and foreign exchange interventions, to an increase in the U.S. rate, using the answers from the interviews as a guide for the best econometric specification. I find that most Central Banks react to a U.S. tightening by raising domestic rates, regardless of the exchange rate regime, but their reasons for doing so vary – from controlling inflation to preventing capital outflows.
Absorption Boom and Fiscal Stance
This paper estimates revenue and expenditure pro-cyclicality with respect to output and domestic absorption in new member states of the European Union and Croatia to assess whether these countries used the boom years of 2003-07 to create sufficient fiscal space. The current crisis has found many countries short of fiscal space. As these countries enter a different phase of capital inflows, some with large vulnerabilities and inflexible monetary policy options, the role of fiscal policy becomes more important. This paper also looks at these issues to see how fiscal policy can play a more effective role in demand management in these countries.
Dollar Hegemony
Dollar hegemony is a defining structural feature of the modern international financial order, and it confers significant economic and political privileges on the US. This book explores the political economic foundations of and prospects for dollar hegemony.
In the Wake of the Crisis
Prominent economists reconsider the fundamentals of economic policy for a post-crisis world. In 2011, the International Monetary Fund invited prominent economists and economic policymakers to consider the brave new world of the post-crisis global economy. The result is a book that captures the state of macroeconomic thinking at a transformational moment. The crisis and the weak recovery that has followed raise fundamental questions concerning macroeconomics and economic policy. These top economists discuss future directions for monetary policy, fiscal policy, financial regulation, capital-account management, growth strategies, the international monetary system, and the economic models that should underpin thinking about critical policy choices. Contributors Olivier Blanchard, Ricardo Caballero, Charles Collyns, Arminio Fraga, Már Guðmundsson, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Otmar Issing, Olivier Jeanne, Rakesh Mohan, Maurice Obstfeld, José Antonio Ocampo, Guillermo Ortiz, Y. V. Reddy, Dani Rodrik, David Romer, Paul Romer, Andrew Sheng, Hyun Song Shin, Parthasarathi Shome, Robert Solow, Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz, Adair Turner
The Paradox of Fiscal Austerity
If governments followed the optimal fiscal policy path, surpluses in good times would counter necessary deficits during economic downturns, leading to worldwide balance. The world, however, has chosen to go in a different direction in recent decades, avoiding thrift in light of a decidedly more indebted future. When financial crises kicked off a global recession in 2008, the spotlight placed on countries’ fiscal conditions put pressure on policymakers around the globe to find a way to slow the growth of deficits and debt by imposing fiscal consolidations (or, more simply, austerity). How have these policies fared across the developed world? Were they even necessary to begin with? This book examines the many factors that have contributed to the success (or failure) of such policies, including timing, magnitude, accompanying policies, composition, and more, while explaining the economic rationale behind their choices.
Rethinking Europe's Future
Rethinking Europe's Future is a major reevaluation of Europe's prospects as it enters the twenty-first century. David Calleo has written a book worthy of the complexity and grandeur of the challenges Europe now faces. Summoning the insights of history, political economy, and philosophy, he explains why Europe was for a long time the world's greatest problem and how the Cold War's bipolar partition brought stability of a sort. Without the Cold War, Europe risks revisiting its more traditional history. With so many contingent factors--in particular Russia and Europe's Muslim neighbors--no one, Calleo believes, can pretend to predict the future with assurance. Calleo's book ponders how to think...
