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Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures
Eight varied scenarios, integrating a quantitative model and qualitative analysis, that examine the interplay of three key drivers over the next four decades. This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as unaffected by energy prices or energy prices in isolation from geopolitical conditions. In this book, Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson offer a new approach to scenario construction that acknowledges the codependence of these key drivers and ...
Strengthening Governance Globally
Strengthening Governance Globally is the fifth volume in the series 'Patterns of Potential Human Progress'. Each volume considers one key aspect of how development unfolds globally and how better to move it in desired directions. This volume identifies the provision of security, the building of government capacity, and the broadening of inclusion of governance on which high-income countries have traditionally made long historical transitions. In contrast, many developing countries today struggle with all three governance transition dimensions simultaneously. Strengthening Governance Globally uses the growing empirical database on governance variables to understand historical change.
Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures
Top-drawer scenario builders map a unique array of 'big picture' global outcomes shaped by energy prices, economic growth, and global harmony. Better still, they give the reader tools to build her own scenarios. An essential reference for experts concerned with geopolitical and geoeconomic futures. -- Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics The way the authors have integrated the International Futures model into scenario analysis is very instructive and amounts to a useful methodological contribution to the literature on scenario analysis. As an energy economist, I also appreciate that the book adds to the usual energy market forecast...
Long-range Futures Research
This highly readable study explains how complexity science provides an evolutionary model for the civil system, with a new world view that out-ranges United Nations reference scenarios to beyond 2150.
Realism and International Relations
"This book puts forward a point of view about advancement for International Relations in general and realism in particular. If borne out, the arguments contained in this study could have far-reaching consequences for International Relations and even beyond. Effective debate among realists and those who identify with other schools of thought has diminished dramatically over time. International Relations scholars have become dissatisfied with results from exchanges in words alone. Translation of the vast amount of information in the field into knowledge requires a greater emphasis on communication beyond the use of text. Given the challenges posed by existing and intensifying information overl...
Anthropology and Contemporary Human Problems
We live in a time of global mega-problems of unsustainable growth and consumption, resource depletion, ecosystem degradation, global warming, escalating energy costs, poverty, and conflict. Cultural anthropologist John H. Bodley trenchantly critiques these most pressing issues and shows how anthropology makes it possible to find solutions. The focus on culture scale suggests that many solutions may be found by developing local communities supported by regional markets and ecosystems, rather than by making the continuous accumulation of financial capital the dominant cultural process throughout the world. Now in its sixth edition, this classic textbook continues to have tremendous relevance a...
Reducing Global Poverty
This is the first volume in an ambitious new series-"Patterns of Potential Human Progress"-inspired by the UN Millennium Development Goals (MGDs) and other initiatives to improve the global condition. The first and most fundamental of these goals-reducing poverty worldwide-is the focus of this book. Using the large-scale computer program called International Futures (IFs) developed over three decades at the prestigious University of Denver Graduate School of International Studies, this book explores the most extensive set of forecasts of global poverty ever made-providing a wide range of scenarios based on an authoritative array of data. It transcends the "$1 a day" baseline measure of pover...
The Law of Globalization
There is a growing clamour - particularly from the main beneficiaries of globalization - that rules need to be established to govern the international economy, with a specific focus on questions such as copyright violations, trade sanctions and protections for foreign investment. Those who perceive they are disadvantaged by globalization demand other legal protections in relation to employment, cultural traditions and the environment.
Predicting the Future in Science, Economics, and Politics
It is a puzzle that while academic research has increased in specialization, the important and complex problems facing humans urgently require a synthesis of understanding. This unique collaboration attempts to address such a problem by bringing togeth
Advancing Global Education
Education is one of the most fundamental prerequisites to economic growth and social stability in the world. It is also one of the most inadequately realised goals of development, with the average education of global adults remaining essentially at primary levels. Advancing Global Education is the second in a series of volumes that explores prospects for human development-how development appears to be unfolding globally and locally, how we would like it to evolve, and how better to assure that we move it in desired directions. The first volume addressed the reduction of global poverty. The third will turn to the enhancement of global health. Advancing Global Education presents the most extensive set of forecasts of global education participation and attainment levels to date-providing and exploring a massive, multi-issue database and proposing a scenario for accelerating educational attainment throughout major world regions and 183 countries.
