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Food Prices and Policy
Extract: This paper puts the food price situation into historical perspective and reviews the 1979 USDA food price forecast.
Food Cost Review
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Food Prices in Perspective
Abstract: A USDA report summarizes the causes of food price inflation. Retail food prices in the United States rose over90% annually from 1973 to 1979. Increases in prices result from higher farm-level commodity prices and higher marketingcosts. Food production costs, trade policies, food marketing costs, and structural changes are controllable in varying degrees. Control of fluctuations due to weather and the biological nature of food production processes is unlikely. Consumers are partially responsible for food priceincreases through rising incomes and changing lifestyles. Reduction of the upward movement in food prices will requirea long-term effort. The Government, food industry, and consumers can slow price increases by 1) supporting programsto reduce inflation rate; 2) encouraging price competition; 3) encouraging consumer nutrition education; 4) stabilizing trade flows; 5) reviewing regulations; 6) eliminating labor practices and policies that limit savings; 7) encouraging new technology, especially packaging, adoption.
Food Prices in Perspective
Retail food prices in the United States rose an average of over 9 percent annually from 1973 to 1979. The reasons these increases occurred and what can be done to slow the rate of increase are examined. They also provide an overview of the food delivery system. Substantially reducing the upward movement in food prices will require the same long-term effort needed to reduce general inflation. In addition, actions to reduce the volatility in commodity prices and commodity trade flows also appear needed.
Recent food prices movements
From 2006 to mid-2008 the international prices of agricultural commodities increased considerably, by a factor larger than two. This upward trend in agricultural prices captured the world's attention as a new food crisis was emerging. Several explanations for these movements in prices, ranging from demand-driven forces to supply shocks, have been provided by analysts, researchers, and development institutions. This paper is an attempt to empirically validate these explanations using time series econometrics and data at monthly frequency. We focus on the international price of corn, wheat, rice, and soybeans. First, we identify variables associated with the factors mentioned as causing the increase in these agricultural commodities prices. Second, we use time series analysis to try to quantitatively validate those explanations. The empirical work presented here includes first difference models and rolling Granger causality tests. Overall, our empirical analysis mainly provides evidence that financial activity in futures markets and proxies for speculation can help explain the observed change in food prices; any other explanation is not well supported by our time series analysis.
Food Price Policy in an Era of Market Instability
Since 2006, global food prices have fluctuated greatly around an increasing trend and price spikes were observed for key food commodities such as rice, wheat, and maize.
