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Uruguay
Uruguay’s inflation and inflation expectations exceed the inflation target, and the gap has been widening in recent years. To help bring it to the mid-point of the target, Banco Central del Uruguay (BCU) needs to maintain a tightening bias in addition to strengthening its communication. This paper examined the factors behind the composition of FDI flows to Uruguay and suggested that strong institutions and macroeconomic stability have helped attract FDI to the secondary and tertiary sectors. Flexibility of the labor market, financial deepening, and the quality of infrastructure can further this improvement.
Togo
This Selected Issues paper discusses the assessment of economic activity in Togo in absence of quarterly GDP series. Togo collects about 40 macroeconomic indicators monthly that span a wide range of sectors of the economy. The selection of the variables for the economic activity index is conducted by finding the combination of variables. The indicators are aggregated into an index using a methodology used by the Conference Board. Then an economic activity index is constructed that effectively replicates the historical growth rates of real GDP in Togo. The selected index minimizes the deviations between the growth rates of the indicator and actual real GDP growth over 2002–13.
Mexico
A broad-based expansion is underway, with robust domestic demand. Inflation has started to recede, and prudent fiscal policy has kept public debt in check. The changes underway in the global economy—including a shift to a lower carbon economy and the reshaping of supply chains—provide an important opportunity for Mexico. However, a broad set of reforms will be needed to translate this opportunity into improved employment prospects and better living standards.
Burkina Faso
This paper discusses Burkina Faso’s Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility and Requests for Extension of the Arrangement, Modification of Continuous Performance Criterion, and Rephasing of Disbursement. Domestic revenue collection over performed by a significant margin in 2012, and program performance remains good. In 2012, domestic revenues were higher than targeted by 1.7 percentage points of revised GDP. Lower financing needs resulted in government savings in the banking system. The authorities are prioritizing improvements in public investment planning, spending capacity to meet infrastructure, and training needs that constrain growth.
Indonesia
Selected Issues
The Macroeconomic (and Distributional) Effects of Public Investment in Developing Economies
This paper provides new empirical evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in developing economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify unanticipated changes in public investment, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output in the short and medium term, with an average short-term fiscal multiplier of about 0.2. We find some evidence that the effects are larger: (i) during periods of slack; (ii) in economies operating with fixed exchange rate regimes; (iii) in more closed economies; (iv) in countries with lower public debt; and (v) in countries with higher investment efficiency. Finally, we show that increases in public investment tend to lower income inequality.
All that Glitters May Not Be Gold
Latin America is growing fast and fundamentals look healthier. Are these achievements here to stay? Strong commodity prices may not last forever and a US recession could have major repercussions in the region. Should countries prepare now for tomorrow's crisis? What is the top-ten list on the policy agenda? This report's aim is to present an alternative perspective in order to avoid either complacency or the "irrational exuberance" famously noted by Alan Greenspan, instead bringing into focus the macroeconomic policy challenges that logically follow from this alternative perspective. Our hope is that both policymakers and multilateral organizations will find this material stimulating enough to precipitate a useful-and in our view, necessary-debate.
Evaluating the Impact of Non-Financial IMF Programs Using the Synthetic Control Method
We use the Synthetic Control Method to study the effect of IMF advice on economic growth, inflation, and investment. The analysis exploits the existence of IMF programs that do not involve any financing (Policy Support Instruments, “PSIs”). This enables us to focus on the effects of IMF monitoring, advice, and approval (as opposed to direct financial assistance). In addition, countries with non-financial programs are typically not crisis-struck – thereby mitigating the reverse causality problem and facilitating the construction of counterfactuals. Results suggest that treated countries add about 1 percentage point in annual real GDP per capita growth, with inflation being lower by some 3 percentage points per year. While we do not find evidence for an impact on total investment and the resulting capital stock, PSI-treatment does seem to stimulate foreign direct investment.
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Sub-Saharan Africa
The region is seeing a modest growth uptick, but this is not uniform and the medium-term outlook remains subdued. Growth is projected to rise to 3.4 percent in 2018, from 2.8 percent in 2017, on the back of improved global growth, higher commodity prices, and continued strong public spending. About 3⁄4 of the countries in the region are predicted to experience faster growth. Beyond 2018, growth is expected to plateau below 4 percent, modestly above population growth, reflecting continued sluggishness in the oil-exporting countries and sustained growth in non-resource-intensive countries. A number of countries (Burundi, DRC, South Sudan, and parts of the Sahel) remain locked in internal conflict resulting in record levels of refugees and Internally Displaced Persons, with adverse spillovers to neighboring countries.
Bolivia
Well-balanced macroeconomic policies, accompanied by an improvement in terms of trade during recent years, have allowed Bolivia to achieve very positive macroeconomic results. The 2012 Article IV Consultation highlights that the outlook for 2012 is favorable and short-term downside risks are manageable. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to continue growing at a fast pace, reflecting still high terms of trade and mildly expansionary policies. The external current account and the fiscal balance are expected to remain in surplus.
