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BSP Unbound
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A Monetary and Financial Policy Analysis and Forecasting Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0)
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has enhanced its macroeconomic modeling through the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS), transitioning from a multi-equation econometric model to a modernized system centered on the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). In its new version, the Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0) integrates forward-looking projections, endogenous monetary policy, fiscal and macroprudential considerations, labor dynamics, and addresses complex shocks and policy trade-offs, facilitating effective policy mix determination and supporting real-time policy evaluation. The BSP’s modernization efforts also include refining forecast calendars and strengthening communication channels to accommodate the operationalization of PAMPh2.0. Detailed validation methods ensure empirical consistency. Finally, future refinements will align the model with evolving empirical findings and theoretical insights, ensuring its continued relevance.
Interest and Prices
With the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, any pretense of a connection of the world's currencies to any real commodity has been abandoned. Yet since the 1980s, most central banks have abandoned money-growth targets as practical guidelines for monetary policy as well. How then can pure "fiat" currencies be managed so as to create confidence in the stability of national units of account? Interest and Prices seeks to provide theoretical foundations for a rule-based approach to monetary policy suitable for a world of instant communications and ever more efficient financial markets. In such a world, effective monetary policy requires that central banks construct a conscious and articulate ac...
Philippines
This Technical Assistance report focuses on Philippines’s monetary and financial statistics (MFS). In order to align the coverage of the other depository corporations survey to statistical standards, the mission recommended the inclusion of the money market unit investment trust funds in the survey. With the compilation of other financial corporation’s data, the Philippines is now able to produce intersectoral balance sheet approach (BSA). MFS with full coverage, together with quarterly international investment position and public debt statistics, are the building blocks for the BSA. The mission recommended a detailed action plan with the following priority recommendations carrying weigh...
