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Financial Conditions in Europe: Dynamics, Drivers, and Macroeconomic Implications
We develop a new measure of financial conditions (FCs) that targets the growth of financial liabilities using the partial least square methodology. We then estimate financial condition indexes (FCIs) across European economies, both at the aggregate and sectoral levels. We decompose the changes in FCs into several factors including credit availability and costs, price of risk, policy stance, and funding constraints. Our results show that FCs loosened during the pandemic thanks to policy support but started to tighten significantly since mid-2021. Using the inverse probability weighting method over the sample period from 2000 to 2023, we find that a shift from a neutral to a tight FCI regime such as the ongoing episode for most European countries will on average lower output and inflation by 2.2 percent and 0.7 percentage points respectively and increase unemployment by 0.3 percentage points over a three-year horizon.
Denmark
The Danish economy recovered strongly from the pandemic, which contributed to inflation pressures from higher energy and import prices. More recently, there are signs that economic activity is cooling, as inflation is lowering real incomes, financial conditions are tightening, and external demand is weakening, but labor markets remain relatively tight. Staff expect growth to slow to 11⁄4 percent in 2023. Risks to growth are broadly balanced, but upside risks dominate inflation. The financial system has remained stable, although house prices have fallen. The medium-term growth outlook remains modest, reflecting well-known structural issues, in particular demographic headwinds.
Wage and Inflation Dynamics in Denmark
Nominal wage growth in Denmark has so far been modest and outpaced by high inflation, putting real wage growth in negative territory. Amid still-tight labor markets, this has raised concerns about wage pressures going forward and the eventual impact on inflation. The analysis suggests that wage formation in Denmark has historically been partly backward-looking, and economic slack also has played a role. Given these, high inflation realized thus far and the tightness in the labor market implies that wage pressures are expected to remain elevated in the near term. Some of these wage pressures, in turn, are expected to be passed on to core inflation, sustaining high inflation. Thus, determined policies to fight inflation are important.
Sweden
After a strong post-pandemic performance, economic activity has weakened. GDP contracted slightly in 2023. An unprecedented monetary policy tightening started in mid-2022 to rein in inflation, which has been declining after peaking at 10.8 percent in end-2022. Weak real incomes, elevated interest expenses, and declining real estate valuations have weighed on private consumption and residential investment and strained the highly levered commercial real estate sector. Policies need to carefully maneuver the economy. Strengthening productivity growth is a key medium-term challenge.
Cancellation of Public Holiday in Denmark
Denmark cancelled a public holiday to increase labor supply, GDP, and fiscal revenues. This chapter discusses the expected labor supply impact of this change and compares it to alternative options for increasing labor supply.
Republic of Estonia: Selected Issues
Selected Issues
Finland
The economy recovered swiftly from the pandemic, but Russia’s war in Ukraine has worsened the outlook given Finland’s exposures to the fallout through trade and increase in energy prices, while high inflation and rising interest rates are weighing on household purchasing power. Long-standing structural challenges—from adverse demographics and low productivity growth—remain. Tighter financial conditions will test the resilience of Finland’s large financial system: banks are well-capitalized, but vulnerable to liquidity shocks and exposed to credit risks from other Nordics and high household debt.
Ireland: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Ireland entered the COVID pandemic with reduced vulnerabilities and high growth, especially in multinational enterprises (MNEs)-dominated sectors. The pandemic has had a highly asymmetric impact on the economy. The domestic sectors contracted by about 10 percent in 2020 and unemployment reached 30 percent at the peak of the first wave, while MNEs continued to grow strongly, driving overall GDP growth to 3.4 percent. A swift policy response has been effective in mitigating the crisis impact and protecting households and firms. The domestic sectors are expected to partially recover in 2021, with GDP growth projected at 4.6 percent. Downside risks stem from uncertainties surrounding new COVID variants, post-Brexit trade arrangements, and likely changes in international taxation.
Finland
Recent developments and outlook. Weak household income growth, falling house prices, higher interest rates, and stagnation in Europe has caused activity to stall in Finland, with a contraction of 0.5 percent estimated in 2023. Labor markets have shown resilience, but unemployment is expected to increase somewhat in coming months, especially from the construction sector. However, inflation has fallen to more normal levels and financial conditions appear to be easing, paving the way for a modest recovery this year, strengthening further in 2025.
