Welcome to our book review site go-pdf.online!
You may have to Search all our reviewed books and magazines, click the sign up button below to create a free account.
Policies to Address Climate Change
While the near-term priorities are national defense and macroeconomic stabilization, gradually incorporating climate change considerations into policy design will become increasingly important after the war and into the long term. As regards climate change adaptation, investments will need to be made with a view to maintain long-term debt sustainability. Policy reforms will also be needed to move to a low-emissions economy to deliver international commitments and achieve the broader objective of European Union accession. Potential exists to deliver on climate priorities alongside implementing recovery and reconstruction efforts, while maintaining macroeconomic stability, and ensuring social protection and equity.
External Devaluations
The paper investigates whether the macroeconomic effects of external devaluations have systematically different effects in small states, which are typically more open and less diversified than larger peers. Through several analytical approaches -- DSGE model, event study, and regression analysis -- it finds that the effects of devaluation on growth and external balances are not significantly different between small and large states, with both groups equally likely to experience expansionary or contractionary outcomes. However, the transmission channels are different: devaluations in small states are more likely to affect demand through expenditure compression, rather than expenditure-switching channels. In particular, consumption tends to fall more sharply in small states due to adverse income effects, thereby reducing import demand. Policy conclusions point to the importance of social safety nets, complementary wage and antiinflation policies, investment-boosting reforms, and attention to potential adverse balance sheet effects to ensure positive outcomes.
India's Future
Projections of sustained strong growth in India depend importantly on the utilization of the huge increase in India's working-age population projected over the next two decades. To date, however, India's economic growth has been concentrated in high-skill and capital-intensive sectors, and has not generated strong employment growth. In this paper, we highlight the tension between India's performance in output and employment, describe the characteristics of India's demographic dividend, and discuss impediments to India's shift away from agriculture.
A Guide to IMF Stress Testing
The IMF has had extensive involvement in the stress testing of financial systems in its member countries. This book presents the methods and models that have been developed by IMF staff over the years and that can be applied to the gamut of financial systems. An added resource for readers is the companion CD-Rom, which makes available the toolkit with some of the models presented in the book (also located at elibrary.imf.org/page/stress-test-toolkit).
The U.S. Federal Debt Outlook: Reading the Tea Leaves
We show that fiscal policies reflecting a primary balance response to higher debt in line with historic experience would significantly increase the likelihood of reaching the debt targets of the U.S. administration in the medium term. Deficits and debt are higher under current budgetary proposals and IMF projections for real activity and interest rates, which do not include a reaction of policies to rising primary deficits. Under the IMF staff's current economic projections, a primary fiscal adjustment of about 3.5 percent of GDP would be needed to achieve a debt level of about 70 percent of GDP in 2020.
United States
The stress testing analysis in the United States was based on publicly available information and on models that are subject to a considerable degree of uncertainty. The stress tests illustrate important vulnerabilities in the banking sector. It highlights the importance of macrofinancial linkages, and dependencies among the largest institutions. The results illustrate the high sensitivity of Bank Holding Company’s asset quality and capital positions. Market liquidity risks appear to have declined, although financial firms remain vulnerable to funding rollover risk. The life insurance sector is relatively resilient.
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2016, Western Hemisphere Department
The United States has seen an improvement in economic activity, driven by consumption, and has taken a first step toward gradual normalization of interest rates. The U.S. recovery continues to support activity in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, but China’s slowdown has reduced the demand for exports from South America. At the same time, the region’s commodity exporters have experienced further terms-of-trade shocks as commodity prices continue their decline globally. This report describes the policies and economic reforms needed to address the declining productive capacity in Latin America and the Caribbean. Three chapters assess corporate vulnerabilities in Latin America, analyze the degree of exchange rate pass-through in the region, and evaluate trends in public and private infrastructure investment.
