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Income and Democracy
We revisit Lipset‘s law, which posits a positive and significant relationship between income and democracy. Using dynamic and heterogeneous panel data estimation techniques, we find a significant and negative relationship between income and democracy: higher/lower incomes per capita hinder/trigger democratization. Decomposing overall income per capita into its resource and non-resource components, we find that the coefficient on the latter is positive and significant while that on the former is significant but negative, indicating that the role of resource income is central to the result.
Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries
The GCC countries maintain a policy of open capital accounts and a pegged (or nearly-pegged) exchange rate, thereby reducing their freedom to run an independent monetary policy. This paper shows, however, that the pass-through of policy rates to retail rates is on the low side, reflecting the shallowness of money markets and the manner in which GCC central banks operate. In addition to policy rates, the GCC monetary authorities use reserve requirements, loan-to-deposit ratios, and other macroprudential tools to affect liquidity and credit. Nonetheless, a panel vector auto regression model suggests that U.S. monetary policy has a strong and statistically significant impact on broad money, non-oil activity, and inflation in the GCC region. Unanticipated shocks to broad money also affect prices but do not stimulate growth. Continued efforts to develop the domestic financial markets will increase interest rate pass-through and strengthen monetary policy transmission.
United Arab Emirates
This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix Paper look at the global spillovers to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) financial system. It finds an uneven degree of spillovers to different segments of the UAE financial system. Regarding domestic equity markets, the combined market capitalization losses in the Abu Dhabi and Dubai stock exchanges between September 2008 and end-March 2012 exceeded $100 billion. The paper concludes that although financial vulnerabilities of the UAE have decreased since the 2008 global real estate collapse, given UAE’s interconnectedness, it remains exposed to global financial conditions.
Subsidy Reform in the Middle East and North Africa
In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries price subsidies are common, especially on food and fuels. However, these are neither well targeted nor cost effective as a social protection tool, often benefiting mainly the better off instead of the poor and vulnerable. This paper explores the challenges of replacing generalized price subsidies with more equitable social safety net instruments, including the short-term inflationary effects, and describes the features of successful subsidy reforms.
Singapore
Singapore’s post pandemic recovery is nearly complete; underpinned by its strong economic fundamentals and the authorities’ decisive policies. While overall output surpassed pre-COVID levels in 2021, the growth momentum has slowed and activities in consumer-facing (except retail) and construction sectors remain below pre-pandemic levels. Inflation remains elevated but has started moderating. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, arising mainly from an abrupt global slowdown or a recession in Singapore’s largest trading partners, tighter global financial conditions, and a deepening of geoeconomic fragmentation.
Adequacy of the Global Financial Safety Net—Review of the Flexible Credit Line and Precautionary and Liquidity Line, and Proposals for Toolkit Reform—Revised Proposals
in the Fund’s work stream on the Adequacy of the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN). The paper follows the Executive Board’s discussion of the Adequacy of the Global Financial Safety Net—Review of the Flexible Credit Line and Precautionary and Liquidity Line, and Proposals for Toolkit Reform on June 30, 2017 (the "June paper"),1 and presents revised reform proposals in light of Directors’ views. In the absence of sufficient Executive Board support for a new liquidity facility, the paper proposes to retain the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL). It also proposes to introduce a Time-Based Commitment Fee (TBCF) in light of many Directors’ support for this feature. 2. This work is ...
Qatar
Qatar has recently taken steps toward introducing a medium-term budget framework (MTBF) to enhance the predictability of spending decisions in the country. However, implementing medium-term fiscal planning requires formal procedural fiscal rules and parallel efforts to enhance the credibility of the annual budget. Given Qatar’s significant exposure to hydrocarbon price movements and its long-lasting hydrocarbon reserves, such fiscal rules would need a certain degree of flexibility and, at the same time, should be set to maintain consistency with long-term fiscal sustainability.
The Palgrave Handbook of African Politics, Governance and Development
This handbook constitutes a single collection of well researched articles and essays on African politics, governance and development from the pre-colonial through colonial to the post-colonial eras. Over the course of these interconnected periods, African politics have evolved with varied experiences across different parts of the continent. As politics is embedded both in the economy and the society, Africa has witnessed some changes in politics, economics, demography and its relations with the world in ways that requires in-depth analysis. This work provides an opportunity for old and new scholars to engage in the universe of the debate around African politics, governance and development and will serve as a ready reference material for students, researchers, policy makers and investors that are concerned with these issues.
Qatar
This 2011 Article IV Consultation highlights that Qatar is using its fiscal space, generated from an increase in hydrocarbon production and prices, to implement a large public spending program. Large infrastructure investments are expected to sustain strong growth of 9 percent to 10 percent in the nonhydrocarbon sector in the medium term. The potential inflationary effect of the recent fiscal package is estimated to be about 1 percentage point. This underscores the need for fiscal policy to monitor aggregate demand and for the Qatar Central Bank to manage liquidity.
Regional Economic Outlook, November 2012, Middle East and Central Asia
The outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed. Oil-importing countries are witnessing tepid growth, and the moderate recovery expected in 2013 is subject to heightened downside risks. For the Arab countries in transition, ongoing political transitions also weigh on growth. With policy buffers largely eroded, the need for action on macroeconomic stabilization and growth-oriented reforms is becoming increasingly urgent. Countries will need to put in place safety nets to protect the poor and build consensus for some difficult fiscal choices. The region’s oil exporters are expected to post solid growth in 2012, in part due to Libya’s better-than-expected postwar recovery. ...
