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Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Reform, and Inflation Stabilization in Romania
Fiscal problems are a key factor behind the inflation that has persisted in Eastern Europe since 1989. Deficits need to be cut back, but by how much for a given inflation target? A simple framework links debt, the deficit, and inflation to assess the fiscal stance of the Romanian economy.
Merchants of Labor
Some 10 million migrant workers cross national borders each year. This book examines the businesses that move low-skilled workers, explaining recruitment, remuneration and retention, and showing how national borders increase recruitment costs. Tackling the often murky world of labor migration, it fills an important void in this fast-growing field.
The Economics of Adjustment and Growth
The Economics of Adjustment and Growth moves the study of macroeconomics for developing economies away from the traditional static approach and toward a more dynamic, growth-oriented framework. Pierre-Richard Agénor presents an analysis of policy issues involved in designing economic adjustment programs in developing countries and structural reform policies aimed at fostering economic growth. Emphasizing the need to take into account the structural features of these countries, his work dwells on the considerable body of analytical research and empirical evidence of the past two decades in academic circles and international organizations. It provides cutting-edge analysis of many current real-world issues, such as financial crises and the role of trade integration in fostering economic growth. Overall the book offers an impressive overview of the macroeconomic and structural adjustment issues facing developing economies today.
Exchange Rate Overvaluation and Trade Protection
"Lessons from world experience about the consequences of exchange rate overvaluation (the frequent cause of trade crises), the consequences of trying to defend an overvalued exchange rate, and the most appropriate policies for resolving an overvaluation"--Cover.
The New Financial Order
In his best-selling Irrational Exuberance, Robert Shiller cautioned that society's obsession with the stock market was fueling the volatility that has since made a roller coaster of the financial system. Less noted was Shiller's admonition that our infatuation with the stock market distracts us from more durable economic prospects. These lie in the hidden potential of real assets, such as income from our livelihoods and homes. But these ''ordinary riches,'' so fundamental to our well-being, are increasingly exposed to the pervasive risks of a rapidly changing global economy. This compelling and important new book presents a fresh vision for hedging risk and securing our economic future. Shil...
Israel
The staff report for the 2008 Article IV Consultation of Israel on economic developments and policies is examined. Fiscal and monetary credentials have been established in markets. Banks and their supervisory arrangements have been robust, and growth has been strong, sustained, and balanced. Although public debt is much reduced, to about 80 percent of GDP, it remains vulnerable. Although domestic securities prices tracked those abroad downward, prompting outflows from provident funds, flows in domestic credit markets remained largely undisturbed.
Early Warning Systems
Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize information contained in exchange rate dynamics. The model is estimated using data for the period 1972-99 for the Asian crisis countries, taking a country-by-country approach. The model outperforms standard EWSs, both in signaling crises and reducing false alarms. Two lessons emerge. First, accounting for the dynamics of exchange rates is important. Second, different indicators matter for different countries, suggesting that the assumption of parameter constancy underlying panel estimates of EWSs may contribute to poor performance.
Mexico: 2005 Article IV Consultation Staff Report; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Mexico
This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic recovery in Mexico that began in mid-2003 has continued in 2005, though at a slower pace. A broad-based expansion of economic activity in 2004, driven by a rebound of private consumption and private investment, took growth up to 4.4 percent. The fiscal accounts improved in 2004 on the strength of rising oil revenues and restraint of current expenditures, and the authorities achieved their target for the traditional deficit of 0.3 percent of GDP.
