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Improving Bayesian Reasoning: What Works and Why?
We confess that the first part of our title is somewhat of a misnomer. Bayesian reasoning is a normative approach to probabilistic belief revision and, as such, it is in need of no improvement. Rather, it is the typical individual whose reasoning and judgments often fall short of the Bayesian ideal who is the focus of improvement. What have we learnt from over a half-century of research and theory on this topic that could explain why people are often non-Bayesian? Can Bayesian reasoning be facilitated, and if so why? These are the questions that motivate this Frontiers in Psychology Research Topic. Bayes' theorem, named after English statistician, philosopher, and Presbyterian minister, Thom...
The Reasoning Brain: The Interplay between Cognitive Neuroscience and Theories of Reasoning
Despite the centrality of rationality to our identity as a species (let alone the scientific endeavour), and the fact that it has been studied for several millennia, the present state of our knowledge of the mechanisms underlying logical reasoning remains highly fragmented. For example, a recent review concluded that none of the extant (12!) theories provide an adequate account (Khemlani & Johnson- Laird, 2011), while other authors argue that we are on the brink of a paradigm change, where the old binary logic framework will be washed away and replaced by more modern (and correct) probabilistic and Bayesian approaches (see for example Elqayam & Over, 2012; Oaksford & Chater, 2009; Over, 2009...
The First City on Mars: An Urban Planner’s Guide to Settling the Red Planet
Hundreds of novels, films, and TV shows have speculated about what it would be like for us Earthlings to build cities on Mars. To make it a reality, however, these dreamers are in sore need of additional conceptual tools in their belt—particularly, a rich knowledge of city planning and design. Enter award-winning author and Tufts University professor, Justin Hollander. In this book, he draws on his experience as an urban planner and researcher of human settlements to provide a thoughtful exploration of what a city on Mars might actually look like. Exploring the residential, commercial, industrial, and infrastructure elements of such an outpost, the book is able to paint a vivid picture of ...
Cognitive Architecture
*Winner of the Environmental Design Research Association 2016 Place Research Award!* In Cognitive Architecture, the authors review new findings in psychology and neuroscience to help architects and planners better understand their clients as the sophisticated mammals they are, arriving in the world with built-in responses to the environment that have evolved over millennia. The book outlines four main principles---Edges Matter, the fact people are a thigmotactic or a 'wall-hugging' species; Patterns Matter, how we are visually-oriented; Shapes Carry Weight, how our preference for bilateral symmetrical forms is biological; and finally, Storytelling is Key, how our narrative proclivities, uniq...
Bayesian Inference
The range of Bayesian inference algorithms and their different applications has been greatly expanded since the first implementation of a Kalman filter by Stanley F. Schmidt for the Apollo program. Extended Kalman filters or particle filters are just some examples of these algorithms that have been extensively applied to logistics, medical services, search and rescue operations, or automotive safety, among others. This book takes a look at both theoretical foundations of Bayesian inference and practical implementations in different fields. It is intended as an introductory guide for the application of Bayesian inference in the fields of life sciences, engineering, and economics, as well as a source document of fundamentals for intermediate Bayesian readers.
In the Light of Evolution
Humans possess certain unique mental traits. Self-reflection, as well as ethic and aesthetic values, is among them, constituting an essential part of what we call the human condition. The human mental machinery led our species to have a self-awareness but, at the same time, a sense of justice, willing to punish unfair actions even if the consequences of such outrages harm our own interests. Also, we appreciate searching for novelties, listening to music, viewing beautiful pictures, or living in well-designed houses. But why is this so? What is the meaning of our tendency, among other particularities, to defend and share values, to evaluate the rectitude of our actions and the beauty of our s...
Psychology and Mathematics Education
Modern Mathematics is constructed rigorously through proofs, based on truths, which are either axioms or previously proven theorems. Thus, it is par excellence a model of rational inquiry. Links between Cognitive Psychology and Mathematics Education have been particularly strong during the last decades. Indeed, the Enlightenment view of the rational human mind that reasons, makes decisions and solves problems based on logic and probabilities, was shaken during the second half of the twentieth century. Cognitive psychologists discovered that humans' thoughts and actions often deviate from rules imposed by strict normative theories of inference. Yet, these deviations should not be called "erro...
Argumentation and Language — Linguistic, Cognitive and Discursive Explorations
This volume focuses on the role language plays at all levels of the argumentation process. It explores the effects that specific linguistic choices may have in the production and the reception of arguments and in doing so, it moves beyond the first, necessary, descriptive stance provided by current literature on the topic. Each chapter provides an original take illuminating one or more of the following three issues: the range of linguistic resources language users draw on as they argue; how cognitive processes of meaning construction may influence argumentative practices; and which discursive devices can be used to fulfil a number of argumentative goals. The volume includes theoretical and e...
