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Fiscal Risk Sharing in China: Is It Significant and How to Further Improve It?
The COVID-19 pandemic has weakened the fiscal positions of local governments in China, while the recent stress in the Chinese property market has further compounded this issue, calling for stronger fiscal risk sharing among provinces. This paper examines the existing central to local governmental transfer system and its effect on interprovincial risk sharing and redistribution in China. We show that the fiscal transfers have played an important role in risk sharing although their main purpose is still redistribution. We also propose an alternative transfer mechanism with the size of transfers to each province linked to the shocks that the province is facing to enhance the fiscal risk-sharing effect. Using counterfactual simulations, we show that such an alternative mechanism can significantly enhance risk sharing among all provinces against idiosyncratic shocks while maintaining a comparable level of redistribution effect. Intergovernmental reforms and other structural measures could also be considered to further improve policy efficiency and effectiveness.
How Public Investment Could Help Strengthen Iran’s Growth Potential: Issues and Options
Public investment is key to growth in developing oil-exporting countries and oil revenue is an important source of finance for public investment. Assessing the growth impact of public investment in Iran under various investment scaling-up (gradual, aggressive, and conservative) and oil price (baseline and adverse) scenarios, this paper shows that because of absorptive capacity constraint and investment inefficiency the growth outcome of an aggressive investment scaling-up is not significantly different from a conservative or a gradual scenario while its costs, in terms of fiscal adjustment, are significantly higher, especially during low oil price periods. An improvement in investment efficiency has a significant positive impact on growth outcome and leads to higher private consumption and investment. Using an oil fund, on the other hand, can help contain the size of fiscal adjustments, although it would result in a larger appreciation of real exchange rate and deterioration in the current account balance.
Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa
Low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa present unique monetary policy challenges, from the high share of volatile food in consumption to underdeveloped financial markets. This book draws on the International Monetary Fund's research and practice to uncover how monetary policy in this region currently operates, and what changes should be made.
Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries - 2016
This paper is the third in a series assessing macroeconomic developments and prospects in low-income developing countries (LIDCs). The first of these papers (IMF, 2014a) examined trends during 2000–2014, a period of sustained strong growth across most LIDCs. The second paper (IMF, 2015a) focused on the impact of the drop in global commodity prices since mid-2014 on LIDCs—a story with losers (countries dependent on commodity exports, notably fuel) and winners (countries with a more diverse export base, where growth remained robust). The overarching theme in this paper’s assessment of the macroeconomic conjuncture among LIDCs is that of incomplete adjustment to the new world of “lower ...
Mining Revenues and Inclusive Development in Guinea
What are the potential benefits of increasing the taxation of a foreign extractive sector? This paper applies this question to the case of Guinea by using a multi-sector macro-inequality model with heterogeneous agents. We quantify the long-run equilibrium impact of additional taxation when the proceeds are invested in human capital, inclusive infrastructure, and social transfers. Our analysis focuses on the response of GDP, labor formalization, poverty rates, Gini coefficients, rural/urban inequality and sectoral reallocation. The three forms of investment are complementary. Infrastructure investments favor formal production in the urban area while growth and government transfers boost the demand for food. These effects help support the rate of return to education, protecting job formalization through higher wages and prices of informal goods, as the education policy boosts labor supply in rural and urban areas.
Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom
Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policy makers in these economies is whether commodity windfalls influence potential output. Our analysis suggests that both actual and potential output move together with commodity terms of trade, but that actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output. The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract 1 to 21⁄4 percentage points from actual output growth annually on average during 2015-17. The forecast drag on potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.
World Economic Outlook, April 2012
The April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity-exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.
Paving the Way to More Resilient, Inclusive, and Greener Economies in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Raising long-term growth and resilience and improving living standards and inclusion are the top economic policy priorities for countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA). The region responded strongly to the COVID shock, which unavoidably caused a contraction in output and an increase in poverty and inequality. While the region is at the crossroads between the West and the East as it is facing heightened uncertainty due to Russia's war in Ukraine and the rising risk of global fragmentation. Climate change is an additional challenge that could have a significant negative impact on CCA countries in the long term. These challenges, however, also offer an opportunity for the region to dev...
Growing (Un)equal
This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of income inequality in China and a panel of BRIC+ countries over the period 1980–2013, with a focus on the redistributive contribution of fiscal policy. Using instrumental variable techniques to deal with potential endogeneity, we find evidence supporting the hypothesis of the existence of a Kuznets curve—an inverted Ushaped relationship between income inequality and economic development—in China and the panel of BRIC+ countries. In the case of China, the empirical results indicate that government spending and taxation have opposing effects on income inequality. While government spending appears to have a worsening impact, taxation improves income distribution. Even though the redistributive effect of fiscal policy in China appears to be stronger than what we identify in the BRIC+ panel, it is not large enough to compensate for the adverse impact of other influential factors.
How to Achieve Inclusive Growth
This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licence. It is free to read at Oxford Scholarship Online and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and selected open access locations. Rising inequality and widespread poverty, social unrest and polarization, gender and ethnic disparities, declining social mobility, economic fragility, unbalanced growth due to technology and globalization, and existential danger from climate change are urgent global concerns of our day. These issues are intertwined. They therefore require a holistic framework to examine their interplay and bring the various strands together. Leading academic economists have partnered ...
