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Country Risk
Country risk has been a key notion for economists, financiers, and investors. Norbert Gaillard defines this notion as “any macroeconomic, microeconomic, financial, social, political, institutional, judiciary, climatic, technological, or sanitary risk that affects (or could affect) an investor in a foreign country. Damages may materialize in several ways: financial losses; threat to the safety of the investing company’s employees, clients, or consumers; reputational damage; or loss of a market or supply source.” Chapter 1 introduces the key concepts. Chapter 2 investigates how country risk has evolved and manifested since the advent of the Pax Britannica in 1816. It describes the intern...
Bank Soundness and Macroeconomic Policy
Banking sector problems have plagued over 130 of the IMF's member countries since 1980. Developing and industrial market economies alike have been affected, as have all the economies in transition. This volume, by Carl-Johan Lindgren, Gillian Garcia, and Matthew I. Saal, discusses the linkages between macroeconomic policy and bank soundness. It takes a global view of the causes and consequences of banking sector problems and discussses how the banking system can be strengthened, nationally and internationally.
Finance and the Good Society
Nobel Prize-winning economist explains why we need to reclaim finance for the common good The reputation of the financial industry could hardly be worse than it is today in the painful aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. New York Times best-selling economist Robert Shiller is no apologist for the sins of finance—he is probably the only person to have predicted both the stock market bubble of 2000 and the real estate bubble that led up to the subprime mortgage meltdown. But in this important and timely book, Shiller argues that, rather than condemning finance, we need to reclaim it for the common good. He makes a powerful case for recognizing that finance, far from being a parasite on s...
Assessing Financial Vulnerability
This study reviews the literature on the origins of currency and banking crises. It presents empirical tests on the performance of alternative early-warning indicators for emerging-market economies. The book also identifies crisis-threshold values for early-warning indicators.
The Twin Crises
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Leading Indicators of Currency Crises
This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
What Triggers Market Jitters?
Movements in stock prices in East Asia during the crisis in 1997-98 were triggered by both local and neighbor-country news. Having the highest impact was news about agreements with international organizations and credit rating agencies. But some changes seem to have been driven by herd instincts in the market itself, including overreactions to bad news. In the chaotic financial environment of East Asia in 1997-98, daily changes in stock prices of as much as 10 percent became commonplace. Kaminsky and Schmukler analyze what type of news moved the market in those days of extreme market jitters. They find that movements are triggered by both local and neighbor-country news. News about agreements with international organizations and credit rating agencies have the most weight. Some of those large changes in stock prices, however, cannot be explained by any apparent substantial news but seem to be driven by herd instincts in the market itself. On average, the one-day market rallies are sustained while the largest one-day losses are recovered - suggesting that investors overreact to bad news.
Financial Development and Dynamic Investment Behavior
The authors apply vector autoregression to firm-level panel data from 36 countries to study the dynamic relationship between firms' financial conditions and investment. They argue that by using orthogonalized impulse-response functions they are able to separate the "fundamental factors" (such as marginal profitability of investment) from the "financial factors" (such as availability of internal finance) that influence the level of investment. The authors find that the impact of the financial factors on investment, which they interpret as evidence of financing constraints, is significantly larger in countries with less developed financial systems. The finding emphasizes the role of financial development in improving capital allocation and growth.
Mutual Fund Investment in Emerging Markets
January 2001 How do mutual funds behave when they invest in emerging economies? For one thing, mutual funds' flows are not stable. Withdrawals from emerging markets during recent crises were large, which squares with existing evidence of financial contagion. International mutual funds are one of the main channels for capital flows to emerging economies. Although mutual funds have become important contributors to financial market integration, little is known about their investment allocation and strategies. Kaminsky, Lyons, and Schmukler provide an overview of mutual fund activity in emerging markets. First, they describe international mutual funds' relative size, asset allocation, and countr...
Emerging Markets Instability
Changes in sovereign ratings affect country risk and stock returns. And these changes are transmitted across countries, with neighbor-country effects being more significant.
