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Quarterly Projection Model for India
This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates several India-specific features like the importance of the agricultural sector and food prices in the inflation process; features of monetary policy transmission and implications of an endogenous credibility process for monetary policy formulation. The paper also describes key properties and historical decompositions of some important macroeconomic variables.
Growth and Governance
Nandan Nilekani earned his place as an iconic entrepreneur in India in the 1980s, having co-founded Infosys Limited in 1981. In the post-economic liberalisation era, he cemented his reputation as a pioneer in the corporate and information technology world, just as he helped launch Infosys into the big league of world’s IT-enabled services companies. He served as the company’s Chief Executive Officer from 2001 to 2007. At the fag end of his career in Infosys, Nilekani wrote a best-selling book in 2009, Imagining India: the Idea of a Nation Renewed. The book is widely acclaimed for heralding a new, idea-based approach to meet the present and future challenges facing India. It spelt out the...
Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy
Contributors working at the International Monetary Fund present 14 chapters on the development of monetary policy over the past quarter century through the lens of the evolution of inflation-forecast targeting. They describe the principles and practices of inflation-forecast targeting, including managing expectations, the implementation of a forecasting and policy analysis system, monetary operations, monetary policy and financial stability, financial conditions, and transparency and communications; aspects of inflation-forecast targeting in Canada, the Czech Republic, India, and the US; and monetary policy challenges faced by low-income countries and how inflation-forecast targeting can provide an anchor in countries with different economic structures and circumstances.
IMF Research Bulletin, Summer 2017
The Summer 2017 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin highlights new research such as recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes. The Research Summaries are “Structural Reform Packages, Sequencing, and the Informal Economy (by Zsuzsa Munkacsi and Magnus Saxegaard) and “A Broken Social Contract, Not High Inequality Led to the Arab Spring” (by Shantayanan Devarajan and Elena Ianchovichina). The Q&A section features “Seven Questions on Fintech” (by Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli). The Bulletin also includes information on recommended titles from IMF Publications and the latest articles from the IMF Economic Review.
Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India
India formally adopted flexible inflation targeting (FIT) in June 2016 to place price stability, defined in terms of a target CPI inflation, as the primary objective of monetary policy. In this context, the paper draws on Indian macroeconomic developments since 2000 and the experience of other countries that adopted FIT to bring out insights on how credible policy with an emphasis on a strong nominal anchor can reduce the impact of supply shocks and improve macroeconomic stability. For illustrating the key issues given the unique structural characteristics of India and the policy options under an FIT framework, the paper describes an analytical framework using the core quarterly projection model (QPM). Simulations of the QPM are carried out to illustrate the monetary policy responses under different types of uncertainty and to bring out the importance of gaining credibility for improving monetary policy efficacy.
Financial Inclusion in Asia
This book brings together a set of analytical and empirical essays aimed at understanding inclusive finance in emerging markets focusing on Asia. Despite the significant policy interest in the issue of financial inclusion in the Asian market, there is a dearth of academic literature on the topic. This book fills this gap by being the first of its kind to address the relevant issues and policy concerns relating to the availability and affordability of financial services in this rapidly emerging geopolitical area. The book features a mixture of empirical and case study oriented essays, informed by data, literature and policy analysis that will be useful for both the academics and the policy makers in the region interested in the subject. Countries highlighted in the essays assessing financial inclusivity include Indonesia, Sri Lanka and India.
Angola
Angola: Selected Issues
Kingdom of Lesotho
Kingdom of Lesotho: Selected Issues
Taking Stock of IMF Capacity Development on Monetary Policy Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems
This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.
