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Inflation Dynamics in Bulgaria: The Role of Policies
This paper analyses inflation dynamics in Bulgaria using different complementary econometrics technics. We find that common factors play a large role in the EU’s inflation variation but impact individual countries differently due to country-specific factors. Greater weight of energy and food in Bulgaria’s CPI basket amplifies the impact of shocks on headline inflation. Furthermore, second-round effects in Bulgaria are likely pronounced, associated with a higher inflation persistence compared to the EU countries. Recent ECB monetary tightening has been insufficient for Bulgaria and its transmission is weak. Fiscal policy supported the recovery from the COVID crisis but added to inflation.
Bulgaria in Global Value Chains: Leveraging Integration with the EU
As a small open economy, Bulgaria benefits from economic exchanges with global partners. However, after a boost before the Global Financial Crisis and EU accession, its integration in global value chains has been growing only modestly in recent years and it remains particularly low when it comes to links with EU partners. To capitalize from the integration with the EU Single Market and exploit the opportunities that will come from joining the euro zone and the Schengen area, Bulgaria should focus on enhancing its non-cost competitiveness by improving its governance and investing in infrastructure and human capital.
Rising Child Poverty in Europe: Mitigating the Scarring from the COVID-19 Pandemic
Child poverty increased dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020 alone, the number of children suffering from poverty in the EU increased by 19 percent, or close to 1 million. Left unaddressed, this would not only affect individuals’ life prospects and well-being but also have long-term economic implications. This paper argues that, to limit this potential scarring effect of the pandemic, policies should be deployed to reduce rapidly the number of children affected by poverty and mitigate the long-term impact of poverty. Reducing the number of children affected by poverty can be achieved by (i) labor policies and reforms that increase parental work and the labor income of poor parents and (ii) fiscal spending on family and children that can have a powerful and immediate impact. These policies need to be complemented by public investment in education and childcare, health, and housing to mitigate the long-term impact of child poverty.
Strengthening Public Expenditure Efficiency: Investment and Social Spending in Bulgaria
The scope for increasing public spending to meet Bulgaria’s development needs is limited by low revenue. Increasing the efficiency of spending is, therefore, crucial. This paper discusses how this can be achieved in four areas (public investment, social protection, health, and education). The methodology is based on a triple benchmarking. First, the level of public expenditure in each category is compared to other European countries. Second, the impact of spending is assessed against other European countries. Third, the input mix is analyzed to understand what components are responsible for the level of spending and for the quality of outcomes. Based on these results, the paper provides policy options for expenditure reform.
Bulgaria
Bulgaria: Selected Issues
Bulgaria
State-owned enterprises’ (SOEs) economic and financial performance may have important fiscal implications. This study evaluates related fiscal risks in Bulgaria from both aggregate and firm-level perspectives. The low level of state-guaranteed debt of SOEs poses minimal fiscal risk. However, contingent liabilities could be a fiscal concern in the long term due to the low profitability of major SOEs and their inefficient resource allocation. Given their crucial role in the production network, their inefficiencies likely negatively impact the overall economy’s productivity and competitiveness. Additionally, liquidity and solvency risks are evident in several key SOEs. These findings underscore the need for monitoring and improving SOEs’ financial performance.
Bulgaria
For two years in 2021–23, a political stalemate hampered policymaking as Bulgaria needed to stir the exit from the pandemic, cope with the global inflation shock and the fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine, secure its energy supply, implement reforms to unlock EU Funds, and prepare for euro adoption. The government formed in June 2023 prioritized euro and Schengen areas accession, NGEU funds delivery, and judicial reforms. It fell in March 2024, increasing the risk of delays in key policy decisions. Despite the succession of international and domestic shocks, the economy showed resilience and can achieve a soft landing if inflation decelerates towards 2 percent as expected under the baseline. Moreover, longstanding intertwined challenges remain: convergence toward EU average income is lagging peers, investment is low, perception of corruption is large, inequality is high, poverty is widespread, the population is shrinking, and the growth model still relies largely on brown energy.
Bulgaria’s EU Funds Absorption
This paper focuses on EU structural and cohesion funds assistance to Bulgaria during the 2007–13 program period. Initial weaknesses resulted in a low absorption rate, which was mitigated by increasing advance payments; applying electronic application and reporting procedures; simplifying and unifying tender processes; and strengthening the role of international financial institutions and banks in project preparation, evaluation and monitoring. The possible impact on growth and potential output is briefly discussed, while the risks of improper absorption are acknowledged. Valuable lessons have been learned, but it is recommended that additional steps be taken for the next program period 2014–20.
The World Bank Research Program, 2005-2007
This pocket-sized reference on key environmental data for over 200 countries includes key indicators on agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, energy, emission and pollution, and water and sanitation. The volume helps establish a sound base of information to help set priorities and measure progress toward environmental sustainability goals.
Untangling the Maze of European Union Funds to Bulgaria
"The paper presents a fiscal estimate of Bulgaria's perspective European Union (EU) membership. The projected EU funds have two distinct effects: first, there is the overall effect on the balance of payments of the country; and second, there is the pure effect on the national budget. The paper concludes that Bulgaria is likely to benefit from large net inflows of resources of an average of 3.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2007-09. In contrast, its fiscal position is expected to deteriorate by 1.6 percent of GDP on average in 2007-09 if no expenditure restructuring of the fiscal framework is carried out. The expected deterioration of the public finances related to EU accession would be due to co-financing requirements, national contributions to the EU budget, and possible full pre-financing of the EU direct payments to Bulgarian farmers in the first year of accession. However, the above expenditures will be partly offset by the budgetary compensation allocated out of the EU budget, savings from agricultural subsidies, and shifting of certain public expenditures to Cohesion Fund-supported projects. "--World Bank web site.
