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The Real Impact of Financial Shocks
November 1998 To what extent did tightening monetary policy magnify the East Asian crisis through its adverse effects on credit supply? In the Republic of Korea, interest rate spreads, which capture credit channel effects, influence economic activity, and these effects are disproportionately larger for small and medium-size enterprises. So policymakers who neglect credit channel effects might be overkilling the economy and altogether overlooking the disproportionate effects of monetary and financial shocks on some sectors. The debates surrounding the recent East Asian crisis have focused not only on causes but also on policy actions in the wake of the initial shock. This has raised questions...
The Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy
Policymakers in Malaysia should weigh the distributional consequences of policy actions. They should also consider measures to alleviate the disproportionate impact that market imperfections have on small and medium-size industries.
Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Growth
This paper examines the effect of the real exchange rate misalignment (RERMIS) on the collective economic growth of Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia. The paper constructs three measures of exchange rate misalignment based on purchasing power parity; a black market exchange rate; and a structured model. The empirical investigation confirmed the adverse effect of RERMIS on growth, using all measures of RERMIS, as predicted by endogenous growth models. The results also highlighted the role of other factors; specifically, capital growth and population have the theoretical signs predicted by the Solow growth model and are statistically significant.
Banking Crises and Exchange Rate Regimes
Pursuing a policy of exchange rate stability reduces the probability of banking crises, particularly in developing countries.
The Main Determinants of Inflation in Albania
June 1998 This study of inflation in Albania yields several conclusions: * Fighting inflation and keeping exports competitive requires cuts in the budget deficit and credit to government. * The strong seasonal inflation can be somewhat ameliorated by improving infrastructure and customs services. * Structural reforms and improved infrastructure should be part of all stabilization programs, because growth reduces inflation. Domac and Elbirt investigate the behavior and determinants of inflation in Albania, using three approaches. They * Decompose inflation into four components: seasonal, cyclical, trend, and random. * Rely on the widely used Granger causality test, using disaggregated data on...
What triggers inflation in emerging market economies?
"Emerging market economies (EMEs) have experienced a noticeable decline in inflation since the mid-1990s. Whether this stable price environment in EMEs is likely to endure and what kind of policies need to be followed to ensure price stability, however, still continue to be questions of considerable policy relevance. Doma ̇and Ycel investigate the factors associated with the start of 24 inflation episodes in 15 EMEs between 1980 and 2001. They use pooled probit analysis to estimate the contribution of the key factors to inflation starts. Their empirical results suggest that increases in the output gap, agricultural shocks, and expansionary fiscal policy raise the probability of inflation starts in EMEs. Their findings also indicate that a more democratic environment and an increase in capital flows relative to GDP reduce the probability of inflation starts. This papera product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Regionis part of a larger effort in the region to enhance knowledge on the inflationary process and its policy implications"-- World Bank web site.
East Asia
East Asia: The Road to Recovery carefully analyzes the events that led to the current economic crisis in East Asia, the tremendous effects the crisis has had on the Asian economies, and prospects for the region's future. Chapters in the book cover the region's trade and competitiveness; the financial sector at the center of the crisis; the corporate sector's financial performance and governance; the social crisis resulting from the financial crash; protection of the environment as well as the people; and policies for sustainable recovery. This book not only discusses how this catastrophe could ever have taken place, but more importantly, what can be done to ensure that it won't happen again.
Republic of Korea
The primary focus of this paper is on economic developments and policies in the period since the outbreak of the financial crisis. Policies adopted under the program successfully restored external stability, rebuilt reserves, and initiated reform of the financial and corporate sectors. Key indicators point to continued economic expansion. Several measures have been implemented to ease the foreign exchange and domestic liquidity constraints putting in place a working social safety net. The paper also discusses financial sector restructuring and corporate sector reforms under way in Korea.
Korea
Korea's impressive macroeconomic performance up to 1997 served to mask fundamental structural problems. Structural reform efforts have been focused on financial sector and corporate sector reforms and liberalizing trade and capital account transactions. The labor market situation has improved, and the unemployment rate has declined. A remarkable feature of Korea's economic performance following the crisis has been the large turnaround in the current account balance. Monetary policy has been focused on stimulating and supporting economic recovery. Reforming corporate governance is one of the government's top priorities.
