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Deep Dive on the Climate Transition for France
Climate change presents an unprecedented long-term challenge to the French and global economy. While France has made significant progress towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions, important additional policy efforts will be needed to meet key mitigation targets. Decarbonization costs and risks can be significant, highlighting the need to identify efficient and equitable fiscal and regulatory policy options to meet emission goals. To accelerate the green transition and mitigate its costs, France has increasingly relied on green spending measures, which could be complemented by higher carbon pricing and other revenue-neutral schemes. Recycling of revenues via cash transfers could offset the price impact on lower-income households. Over the medium term, new measures for road transportation, such as distance-based charges, could also be considered. Ensuring a timely and orderly climate transition will be critical to mitigate the credit risk impact on banks. French banks should also continue to mitigate climate transition risks by integrating them into their governance, strategy, and risk management processes.
Paving the Way to More Resilient, Inclusive, and Greener Economies in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Raising long-term growth and resilience and improving living standards and inclusion are the top economic policy priorities for countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA). The region responded strongly to the COVID shock, which unavoidably caused a contraction in output and an increase in poverty and inequality. While the region is at the crossroads between the West and the East as it is facing heightened uncertainty due to Russia's war in Ukraine and the rising risk of global fragmentation. Climate change is an additional challenge that could have a significant negative impact on CCA countries in the long term. These challenges, however, also offer an opportunity for the region to dev...
Climate Transition Risk and Financial Stability in France
This study empirically investigates the impact of the climate transition on the French financial sector using a micro-macro approach to examine the long-term effects of climate mitigation and decarbonization policies on sectoral output and the effects on firm profitability and the likelihood of corporate defaults. We employ a recursive-dynamic, multi-regional, multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the Fit-for-55 climate scenario and then integrate the sectoral output paths derived from the model into firm-level corporate balance sheets and risks. We then assess the extent of credit exposure of banks to energy-intensive sectors. Our findings indicate that, under the Fit-for-55 scenario, the mining, chemicals and manufacturing sectors might face notable increases in their probability of defaults, in turn creating pockets of vulnerabilities in some parts of the banking system depending on their exposure to these energy-intensive sectors. This highlights the importance for a timely and orderly transition, including integrating climate transition plans into the prudential framework.
Guatemala
This Selected Issues paper estimates potential output growth and the output gap for Guatemala. Potential output growth averaged 4.4 percent just before the global financial crisis but has since declined to 3.75 percent owing to lower capital accumulation and total factor productivity (TFP) growth. It is estimated at 3.8 percent in 2016, and the output gap has virtually closed. Potential growth is expected to reach 4 percent in the medium term owing to the expected improvements in TFP growth. Policies should also prioritize mobilizing domestic savings to invest and build a higher capital stock.
Dominican Republic
As in the past, the Dominican Republic’s dynamic economy continued to show remarkable resilience to shocks, rebounding strongly from the impact of the pandemic. Sound policies, a nimble vaccination campaign and a well-attuned reopening—including international travel—allowed the economy to make the most of the global rebound. The recovery has been broad based; GDP was about 5 percent above pre-pandemic levels as of end-2021. The country maintained sound market access and benefitted from Fund support through the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI).
Kyrgyz Republic
This Selected Issues paper identifies constraints to economic growth in the Kyrgyz Republic, using the Hausmann-Velasco-Rodrik diagnostic approach. It finds that large infrastructure gaps, weak governance and rule of law, and high cost of finance appear to be the most binding constraints to private investment and growth. Additional critical factors are the quality of education and onerous regulations. There is room to improve both the quality and cost/efficiency of education spending. Although relatively low, labor costs have exceeded productivity growth and there is room to improve labor market efficiency. Despite important investments, the infrastructure gap remains large and the country ranks relatively low on infrastructure quality. Weak governance undermines growth through various channels: investment, human capital, and productivity. Weak institutions increase the cost of doing business and make the appropriation of investment returns less certain, overall reducing investor’s risk appetite to invest. Public debt is on the high side and the composition of spending is tilted toward current spending.
Paving the Way to Sustained Growth and Prosperity in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic
Abstract: Accelerating economic growth in Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic (CAPDR) remains an elusive task. While the region performed relatively well in the post-global financial crisis period, over the last five years obstacles to growth have become more evident and new challenges have emerged. In response, the region has strengthened macro-financial frameworks but more progress will be required to pave the way to sustained growth and prosperity. This book considers the structural factors underlying the region’s growth outlook and assesses its macroeconomic and financial challenges to help shape the policy agenda going forward. The book first identifies the structural d...
Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic
This paper presents estimates of potential output for all Central American economies. Our findings are that potential output growth has declined in recent years in most economies of Central America. Lower capital accumulation and TFP growth are accounting for most of this decline. Apart from Costa Rica, there are no indications of significant economic slack in 2015 in Central America. Looking forward, potential growth in most Central American economies is expected to continue at an average of 4 percent in the medium-term due to structural constraints to capital and employment growth, and low TFP growth. Increasing potential growth, thus, should be a policy priority and structural reforms must be directed at improving business conditions, product and labor markets, and enhancing the capacity for innovation.
France
France: Selected Issues
Financial Integration in Latin America
With growth slowing across much of the Latin America as a result of the end of the commodity supercycle and economic rebalancing in China, as well as fragmentation of the international banking system, policies to stimulate growth are needed. This book examines the financial landscapes of seven Latin American economies—Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay—and makes a case for them to pursue regional financial integration. Chapters set out the benefits to the region of financial integration, the barriers to cross-border activity in banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and capital markets, as well as recommendations to address these barriers. Finally, the volume makes the case that regional integration now could be a step toward global integration in the short term.
