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El Salvador
This Selected Issues paper assesses the potential output in El Salvador. Based on various filters and the production function approach, El Salvador’s potential growth is estimated at about 2 percent for 1999–2015, and the output gap is now virtually closed. Potential growth after the global financial crisis has fallen as a result of lower capital accumulation and total factor productivity (TFP). TFP growth depends on technological progress, as well as the institutional, regulatory, and legal environment in which businesses operate. From a cyclical perspective, the economy is assessed to be operating at potential and labor market conditions also appear to be broadly neutral. Strengthening...
Paving the Way to Sustained Growth and Prosperity in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic
Abstract: Accelerating economic growth in Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic (CAPDR) remains an elusive task. While the region performed relatively well in the post-global financial crisis period, over the last five years obstacles to growth have become more evident and new challenges have emerged. In response, the region has strengthened macro-financial frameworks but more progress will be required to pave the way to sustained growth and prosperity. This book considers the structural factors underlying the region’s growth outlook and assesses its macroeconomic and financial challenges to help shape the policy agenda going forward. The book first identifies the structural d...
Guatemala
This Selected Issues note estimates Guatemala’s potential output and output gap using the production function approach, univariate statistical filters, and multivariate models based on the Kalman filter method. In the production function approach, potential output is modeled as a function of potential labor and capital inputs, and total factor productivity (TFP). Results are robust to different methodologies and suggest that its potential output growth is about 3.5 percent and the output gap is on average closed. Structural breaks in potential output were identified in 1994, 2003, and 2008, which coincide to the Mexican tequila crisis, the free trade agreement with the US, and the financial crisis. Going forward, it is critical to undertake structural reforms to strengthen capital, labor, and TFP growth in order to accelerate potential growth. Univariate statistical methods provide a simple measure of potential output. The production function approach also indicates that the absence of productivity growth is a significant barrier to potential output growth.
Excerpt: Paving the Way to Sustained Growth and Prosperity in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic
This is an excerpt from Paving the Way to Growth and Prosperity in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic edited by Kimberly Beaton, Roberto Garcia Saltos, and Lorenzo Figliuoli. Over the past three decades, countries in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic have experienced sustained economic transfor-mation. The region has moved away from its rural and agricultural past to a modern and urban present and has significantly integrated its econ-omies regionally and globally. Many factors have shaped the region’s economic performance and are expected to contribute to its future development. The book aims to foster policy dialogue and contribute to the efforts to add...
Costa Rica
This paper looks at the following important issues pertaining to the economy of Costa Rica: micro-financial linkages, financial sector vulnerabilities, monetary policy stance, financial deepening in Costa Rica, financial inclusion in Costa Rica, recent fiscal developments and medium-term sustainability, and female labor force participation in Costa Rica. This paper discusses linkages between the Costa Rican real economy and financial sector. Although increasingly diversified, the Costa Rican financial system is centered on banking intermediation. The banking system is highly segmented and heavily dollarized. To assess the adequacy of the current monetary policy stance, this paper estimates the neutral monetary policy interest rate.
France
A strong and timely policy response helped cushion the impact of the COVID19 pandemic and the energy crisis resulting from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Despite a recovery slowdown in 2023, the French economy has remained relatively resilient in the face of financial tightening and weaker euro area external demand. Nevertheless, the crisis response and slower-than-expected recovery have weighed on public finances, with a sizable fiscal underperformance in 2023 reducing fiscal space at a time of rising investment needs for the green and digital transformation. While financial conditions started improving in early 2024, market pressures on sovereign spreads and stock markets rose in early June fo...
Kyrgyz Republic
This paper discusses Kyrgyz Republic’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. The COVID-19 pandemic has been hitting the Kyrgyz economy very hard and created an urgent balance of payments need. All sectors are being impacted with extreme severity as measures are being taken to stop the spread of the virus. Given the unprecedented high level of uncertainty, IMF emergency support under the Rapid Financing Instrument and the Rapid Credit Facility helps provide a backstop and increase buffers and shore up confidence. It also helps to preserve fiscal space for essential COVID- 19-related health expenditure and catalyze donor support. Banks’ capital and liquidity buffers need to be used to absorb credit losses and the liquidity squeeze. Once these buffers are exhausted, the central bank needs to show flexibility on the timing of bringing capital and liquidity above the minimum required, considering the length of the crisis. Expeditious donor support is needed to close the remaining balance of payments gap and ease the adjustment burden.
Greece
Greece: Selected Issues
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Western Hemisphere Department
With the global economy gaining some momentum, economies of Latin America and the Caribbean are recovering from a recession at the regional level in 2016. This gradual improvement can be understood as tale of two adjustments, external and fiscal, that are ongoing in response to earlier shocks. But headwinds from commodity terms-of-trade shocks and country-specific domestic factors are fading, paving the way for real GDP to grow by about 1 percent in 2017. Regional activity is expected to pick up further momentum in 2018, but at a slower pace than previously anticipated, while medium-term growth is projected to remain modest at about 2.6 percent. The outlook is shaped by key shifts in the glo...
Kingdom of the Netherlands–the Netherlands
Kingdom of the Netherlands–the Netherlands: Selected Issues
