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This classroom-tested textbook is an introduction to probability theory, with the right balance between mathematical precision, probabilistic intuition, and concrete applications. Introduction to Probability covers the material precisely, while avoiding excessive technical details. After introducing the basic vocabulary of randomness, including events, probabilities, and random variables, the text offers the reader a first glimpse of the major theorems of the subject: the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. The important probability distributions are introduced organically as they arise from applications. The discrete and continuous sides of probability are treated together to emphasize their similarities. Intended for students with a calculus background, the text teaches not only the nuts and bolts of probability theory and how to solve specific problems, but also why the methods of solution work.
This book explores four real-world topics through the lens of probability theory. It can be used to supplement a standard text in probability or statistics. Most elementary textbooks present the basic theory and then illustrate the ideas with some neatly packaged examples. Here the authors assume that the reader has seen, or is learning, the basic theory from another book and concentrate in some depth on the following topics: streaks, the stock market, lotteries, and fingerprints. This extended format allows the authors to present multiple approaches to problems and to pursue promising side discussions in ways that would not be possible in a book constrained to cover a fixed set of topics. To keep the main narrative accessible, the authors have placed the more technical mathematical details in appendices. The appendices can be understood by someone who has taken one or two semesters of calculus.
Probability theory has grown from a modest study of simple games of change to a subject with application in almost every branch of knowledge and science. In this exciting book, a number of distinguished probabilists discuss their current work and applications in an easily understood manner. Chapters show that new directions in probability have been suggested by the application of probability to other fields and other disciplines of mathematics. The study of polymer chains in chemistry led to the study of self-avoiding random walks; the study of the Ising model in physics and models for epidemics in biology led to the study of the probability theory of interacting particle systems. The stochastic calculus has allowed probabilists to solve problems in classical analysis, in theory of investment, and in engineering. The mathematical formulation of game theory has led to new insights into decisions under uncertainty. These new developments in probability are vividly illustrated throughout the book.
Probability theory, like much of mathematics, is indebted to physics as a source of problems and intuition for solving these problems. Unfortunately, the level of abstraction of current mathematics often makes it difficult for anyone but an expert to appreciate this fact. Random Walks and electric networks looks at the interplay of physics and mathematics in terms of an example—the relation between elementary electric network theory and random walks —where the mathematics involved is at the college level.
The study of Markov random fields has brought exciting new problems to probability theory which are being developed in parallel with basic investigation in other disciplines, most notably physics. The mathematical and physical literature is often quite technical. This book aims at a more gentle introduction to these new areas of research.
With the first edition out of print, we decided to arrange for republi cation of Denumerrible Markov Ohains with additional bibliographic material. The new edition contains a section Additional Notes that indicates some of the developments in Markov chain theory over the last ten years. As in the first edition and for the same reasons, we have resisted the temptation to follow the theory in directions that deal with uncountable state spaces or continuous time. A section entitled Additional References complements the Additional Notes. J. W. Pitman pointed out an error in Theorem 9-53 of the first edition, which we have corrected. More detail about the correction appears in the Additional Notes. Aside from this change, we have left intact the text of the first eleven chapters. The second edition contains a twelfth chapter, written by David Griffeath, on Markov random fields. We are grateful to Ted Cox for his help in preparing this material. Notes for the chapter appear in the section Additional Notes. J.G.K., J.L.S., A.W.K.
This book provides an introduction to the elementary theory of logic, sets, probability theory, and linear algebra. It treats a number of practical applications, useful in everyday life, but applicable to biological, behavioral, and social sciences.
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